Today's Opening Day! Everyone's ready for the season and publicizing their predictions, and I'm no different today. I'll give a few storylines for each division to help explain what major stories to watch on each team this year. Along with my predicted order of standings in each division and predicted playoff results, I'll also include MVP, Cy Young, ROY and Comeback Player of the Year candidates in each division.
First up the AL East after the jump:
AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox - Dominant team has best 2011 offseason to bolster already solid team.
The Red Sox aren't one to settle, making the unexpected move of signing Carl Crawford to a 7 year, $142 million deal, and making the widely expected move of trading for Adrian Gonzalez in the offseason. These two players will be slotted into the middle of their lineups and both will contend for MVP accolades. Along with these two players, they will have a full year of a healthy Dustin Pedroia (hopefully), and the reliable bats of Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury and Marco Scutaro in the daily lineup. Their only question marks on offense are Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who is the starting catcher now that Victor Martinez has left Boston in favor of the Detroit Tigers, and the health of J.D. Drew who is a solid hitter... if healthy. Defensively, the left side of the infield should be fine and the outfield defense is solid, especially with the addition of Carl Crawford, which should allow Jacoby Ellsbury to focus more on covering right-center than left field. Kevin Youkilis' defense at 3B won't be spectacular, but considering that it's the only question mark in the infield, the Red Sox should be fine.
The starting staff sounds many alarms, as Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka had horrible seasons last year for their standards. While their high-powered offense will win a lot of games single-handedly, they need the back end of the pitching staff behind Lester and Buchholz to step up. Beckett and Lackey should improve on last year's disappointing seasons, especially Beckett if he remains healthy. Jon Lester is a Cy Young contender, and one of the best left-handed pitchers in the game. Clay Buchholz was outstanding in his near full season of work with a 2.33 ERA in 170+ IP, but can he be counted on to produce at that level again? Probably not, but he'll still be a very solid pitcher.
The bullpen was bolstered by the additions of Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler, making the Boston bullpen one of the deepest in baseball. Papelbon was shaky last year, blowing 8 saves, but if he falters, the dynamic Daniel Bard may finally get his shot at closing for the Red Sox. The remainder of the bullpen is filled out by Dennys Reyes, their left-handed specialist who came over from the Twins in free agency, Tim Wakefield who is the long-reliever and spot starter, and Matt Albers.
Team MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
Team Cy Young: Jon Lester
Comeback Player of the Year: Dustin Pedroia
Rookie to Watch: Very few rookies will see the field for Boston, if any, as this is a veteran team with experience across the diamond. If any prospect sees time, it will likely be OF Josh Reddick if J.D. Drew goes down with an injury and Darnell McDonald, Mike Cameron, Ryan Kalish all struggle, which obviously is unlikely.
Projected Record (estimated): 98-64
2. New York Yankees - While the Evil Empire's line-up still packs a punch, the current pitching staff is a major weakness.
The Yankees and Red Sox will once again be fighting atop the division, but the Yankees seem to be at a disadvantage this year. Their lineup sure isn't the reason though, as the Yankees and Red Sox will likely be the top 2 offenses in some order in runs scored this year. Brett Gardner has now become the main leadoff hitter which boosts their run-scoring potential further, as Gardner walks quite a bit and will steal around 50 bases. The lineup is strong at every position with Jeter, A-Rod, Teixeira, and Cano hitting 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th. Filling out the lineup are Nick Swisher (who had an All-Star career year in 2010), Curtis Granderson, Jorge Posada and Russell Martin. There really aren't any holes in their lineup, and they'll dominate at the plate, drawing tons of walks per usual and hitting tons of home runs. A-Rod is in the best shape since his MVP season of 2003 according to Teixeira (who played with him that season), so look for him to have an amazing season. The Yankees don't seem to have many spots for a rookie to have a major impact, Jesus Montero is the most likely to get some time in the bigs. The catcher/DH/1B doesn't really have a set position but has a ton of power and is sure to break into the big leagues this season.
The starting rotation is anchored by C.C. Sabathia who is a consistent innnings-eating stud that will post an ERA below 3.5. Past him, everyone else is a major question mark. A.J. Burnett imploded last year and was completely unreliable and Phil Hughes struggled mightily after May, never posting an ERA below 4.22 in any month during that period. And those are their #2 and #3 starters! Ivan Nova has potential but is completely unproven, and Freddy Garcia is a fine #5 starter, but given the lack of depth in their rotation they need stronger production out of him than most teams do out of their #5 starters. If Burnett returns to the form he showed when he was given his $80 million contract and Phil Hughes can survive the rigors of a full MLB season, the Yankees have a shot at the division, but if not, they could miss the playoffs altogether. Losing Andy Pettitte to retirement and Cliff Lee to the Phillies really hampered the Yankees' rotation.
The back of the bullpen however should not be a concern as Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano are the best 8th/9th inning combination in baseball. Soriano is overpaid no doubt, but helps ensure that closing out close games won't be a problem over the final 2 innings. David Robertson is a great 7th inning/occasional 8th inning option, and Boone Logan is a solid left-handed specialist. Joba Chamberlain is a quandary and can't be counted on for much, so he's the major player to watch. Bartolo Colon will be the long-relief pitcher this year which is the least important roster spot in baseball, but if he performs well, he may be moved to the starting rotation in place of someone suffering.
Team MVP: 3B Alex Rodriguez
Team Cy Young: SP C.C. Sabathia
Team Comeback Player of the Year: SS Derek Jeter
Team Rookie of the Year: C Jesus Montero
Projected Finish: 92-70, AL Wildcard
3. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays lose entire bullpen, Carl and Carlos, but don't count them out just yet.
The Rays lost one of their prime players in Carl Crawford and their biggest power source in Carlos Pena over the offseason, but still have a solid foundation in place. Evan Longoria and BJ Upton still remain, along with the recently signed Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez who should hit 2nd and 3rd for the Rays. Longoria should compete for the AL MVP as arguably the best 3B in baseball, and is the face of the Rays franchise. RF Ben Zobrist had a horrendous year but offers defensive versatility (he can play any position but catcher), OF Matt Joyce should see more at-bats this year, 2B Sean Rodriguez and SS Reid Brignac should provide decent pop at the middle infield positions and the patient-hitting C John Jaso will get on base a lot at the bottom of the Rays lineup if he's not leading off. They didn't fill their hole at 1B, only adding Dan Johnson to play everyday at the position so that's a major weakness. The lineup also is pretty devoid of power after Longoria, BJ, and Zobrist. Manny isn't his old self and while I expect him to bounce back, he isn't hitting more than 20 HRs. They have a top prospect waiting in the minors to take over Carl Crawford's former job in left field, Desmond Jennings. He's a speedy, patient hitter that will be slotted in at the leadoff spot for years to come once Johnny Damon is benched in his favor.
The starting pitching staff is the best in the AL East, even after trading Matt Garza to the Cubs for a few prospects. David Price is one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball and is only 25. Jeremy Hellickson is a dynamic prospect who will spend the full year in the majors now that Garza's departure has opened a spot in the rotation for him. Wade Davis came on down the stretch in 2010 to fulfill his prospect hype, Jeff Niemann quietly had a solid year and James Shields won't have an ERA around 5 again. This rotation is solid from top to bottom and will be in Tampa for a while, especially thanks to Wade Davis' newly minted extension.
The bullpen is the biggest problem for the Rays, who lost Rafael Soriano, Joaquin Benoit and most of the rest of their 'pen to free agency. They now have a mish-mash of mediocrity in the bullpen that they hope to mix and match effectively throughout the year, which likely won't work. They do have a young prospect with very high upside in Jake McGee, who should be the sole closer by year's end, and a solid reliever in J.P. Howell who was a phenomenal reliever the two years prior to his devastating injury. Once he returns, which he's expected to in May, he'll also compete for the closer job. Joel Peralta also was solid last year after developing a splitter that greatly improved his pitching repertoire, turning him into an above-average reliever. Kyle Farnsworth isn't very good though as Tigers fans can attest to, and he'll likely be their primary closer at the year's start. The less he pitches, the better for the Rays. They'll need to find a couple reliable relievers in addition to McGee, Peralta and Howell in order to truly contend, but it's looking like that won't happen.
Team MVP: 3B Evan Longoria
Team Cy Young: David Price
Team Comeback Player of the Year: IF/OF Ben Zobrist
Team Rookie of the Year: SP Jeremy Hellickson
Projected Record: 85-77
4. Toronto Blue Jays - Their lineup may be the most powerful in baseball, but can their pitching staff hold up their end of the bargain?
The Blue Jays have one of the best collections of power hitters in baseball, especially after Jose Bautista's breakout season in 2010, and at their best can produce with the best offenses in baseball. RF Jose Bautista, 3B Edwin Encarnacion, DH Juan Rivera, C J.P. Arencibia, 2B Aaron Hill, LF Travis Snider and 1B Adam Lind all have 20+ HR power, but will they all realize their true potential in one season? That's what needs to happen if they want to contend. Aaron Hill had a horrendous year, posting a BABIP under .200, so look for him to have a resurgent year at the plate. SS Yunel Escobar had a solid year after departing from Atlanta, but the Blue Jays probably wish they had Alex Gonzalez back at SS. Rajai Davis is a nuisance on the basepaths who should be a great leadoff hitter for the Blue Jays and steal 50+ bases. The offense's success will largely depend on if Adam Lind and Travis Snider can fulfill their potential and if the team can actually hit for average this year in addition to power, as they only had one hitter over .270 last year, and that was Vernon Wells who is in Anaheim now. They acquired the Brewers' top prospect, 2B Brett Lawrie, this offseason for SP Shaun Marcum and Lawrie may make a major impact this year should anyone falter. J.P. Arencibia should be their best offensive rookie this year, as he displays a great amount of power and can hopefully replace the power that John Buck added to the team last season.
The Blue Jays constantly replenish their starting rotation with above-average pitchers from their strong minor league system. Last year they brought up Brandon Morrow, who while he didn't post the best ERA showed flashes of his talent in some very dominant games, including a near no-hitter and 18 strikeout game. He had the highest K/9 of any starter and if he can rein in his pitch control just a bit, he'll be a dominant pitcher. Along with Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil and Shaun Marcum, the rotation was respectable and showed a lot of potential. After trading Marcum to the Brewers however, the rotation loses its best pitcher and needs to find another dominant pitcher to replace him with. Romero and Cecil look to be solid pitchers with Romero continuing to improve last year. SP Kyle Drabek, a rookie they acquired in the Roy Halladay trade, will be in the rotation for most of the season if not all, and has the stuff to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, so his development will be key to the Jays' success both in 2011 and the future. After Romero, Cecil, Morrow, and Drabek, some combination of Jesse Litsch and Marc Rzepczynski should fill in the fifth starter spot.
The Jays' bullpen was weakened after losing Kevin Gregg and Scott Downs to free agency, but they did get four draft picks by letting the two leave for Baltimore and Anaheim respectively. They acquired RP Frank Francisco through a series of trades that ended with them dealing c/1B Mike Napoli to the Rangers for him. Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, Francisco and Jason Frasor are all solid relievers with closing experience, but none are extremely dominant, leaving it a major question who will be the closer for the duration of the season. Shawn Camp has been a great reliever for the Blue Jays the past three seasons and that shouldn't change this year. Carlos Villanueva and Casey Janssen, who both have the capability to start games, fill out what is a solid but not dominant bullpen that will neither greatly harm or help the Jays this season. In the end, it'll come down to their starting pitching taking the next step and the offense hitting for average more than in years past.
Team MVP: SP Ricky Romero
Team Cy Young: SP Ricky Romero
Team Comeback Player of the Year: 2B Aaron Hill
Team Rookie of the Year: SP Kyle Drabek
Projected Record: 82-80
5. Baltimore Orioles - Respectable effort made in the offseason to contend, but weak pitching staff will be their undoing.
Over the offseason, the Orioles had a very active offseason by revamping their infield, signing Vladimir Guerrero and signing Kevin Gregg to close out games. Their one-year-deal for Vladimir is a bargain, as he'll only earn $8 million to bat .300, hit 20+ HRs and drive in near 100 RBIs. Derrek Lee should have one of his last productive years in Baltimore, playing gold glove defense and hitting .280+ with 15-20 HRs. They acquired SS JJ Hardy and 3B Mark Reynolds as well over the offseason, both of whom have power and are solid fielders. If they can hit for average then Baltimore will really have an outstanding lineup. C Matt Wieters, the much hyped prospect, has yet to truly deliver on the hype and expectations that accompanied his MLB debut. He has the potential to hi .300 with 20+ HRs, but needs to realize that for the Orioles to contend. CF Adam Jones has been good but not great, and needs to step up his production. 2B Brian Roberts likely won't play much this season as his age and injury history are catching up with him. Luke Scott is the last piece at LF who had a solid season and has 30 homer power over a full year and Nick Markakis is a steady bat in RF, although he's losing power.
The pitching staff is the major concern for the Orioles, as past Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Matusz, the rotation is very undependable. SP Chris Tillman has yet to deliver on his prospect hype, posting ERAs of 5.4 and 5.87 in his limited MLB stints in 2009 and 2010 respectively. SP Jake Arrieta was another highly regarded Orioles prospect who performed far better in the second half of his season, but can he deliver a respectable full season? Brad Bergesen will likely be the 5th starter and is nothing more than a filler, so he'll likely be replaced by season's end by their top pitching prospect currently, Zachary Britton. The sinker-baller should find his way up to MLB by the All-Star break and finish the season with the club. Guthrie is a consistent pitcher who wont blow anyone away but is dependable, and Brian Matusz showed flashes of brilliance in his rookie season last year, he should improve this year to become a dependable #2/#3 starter. The Orioles' rotation has the talent to be great, but probably not great enough to compete with the rest of the division, and they won't meet that talent this year.
The bullpen was bolstered by the signings of RP Kevin Gregg and Jeremy Accardo over the offseason and the Orioles should have a deeper bullpen this year, but again, similarly to the Blue Jays and Rays, they don't have one dominant reliever to close out the end of games.Koji Uehara, Kevin Gregg, Jeremy Accardo and Mike Gonzalez are a solid four-man group of relievers and Jim Johnson has been pretty reliable too. The bullpen will be overworked this year though as the rotation fights through growing pains and all of them aside of Guthrie look to develop into their true potential.
The Orioles have what looks to be a solid lineup from top to bottom if everyone's healthy, but their bigger questions lie with the starting staff, which will likely be their undoing. They're improved, no doubt, but the veteran free agent signings are going to go for naught as the Orioles miss the playoffs again.
Team MVP: DH Vladimir Guerrero
Team Cy Young: Brian Matusz
Team Comeback Player of the Year: 3B Mark Reynolds
Team Rookie of the Year: SP Zach Britton
Projected Record: 76-86
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