Wednesday, June 29, 2011

EMU Eagles Should Nest in Division I-AA

Eastern Michigan University (EMU) desperately wants to be recognized as a legitimate "Division I" school.  The prestige of offering Division-I football and basketball programs, along with the other 21 sports EMU offers is, in theory, enticing to prospective applicants.  What EMU has failed to realize, and refuses to admit, is that they are one of the most glaring examples of what is in reality a Division I-AA level program miscast and misplaced as a Division I sports program.   

That "theory" is a farce, and unfortunately has permeated the minds of university officials across the country. Institutions are losing millions on top of millions, just to offer that "prestigious" Division I football team.  Only 14 athletic departments out of 120 FBS (or Division-I) actually financially profitted in the 2009-2010 academic year according to a 2010 ESPN.com article.  On Tuesday, annarbor.com released a report putting numbers and facts behind what all EMU students, alumni, faculty and officials already knew; the athletic program is on life support.  A good portion of that life support comes from tuition and fees paid BY the very same students who don't attend the games.  Apparently, EMU's officials are perfectly fine with spending $15 million annually to keep their athletic program alive.

I don’t think at the mid-major level, we should ever expect to be profitable,” said Stapleton, who despite his opposition to Ramsey’s firing, counts himself among supporters of a strong Division I-A athletic department. “That’s just not reality.”

While Stapleton is probably right, the nature of his statement suggests that they don't see ways to decrease direct institutional spending on the athletic department.  There definitely are While many departments end up losing money due to Title IX requirements that each university offer equal opportunities for male and female athletes, the ESPN.com article found that even when separating football programs from athletic departments, many football programs were operating at a deficit as well:
Sixty-eight FBS schools reported turning a profit on football, with a median value of $8.8 million. The 52 FBS schools that lost money on football reported median losses of $2.7 million.

The breakdown for basketball programs at those 120 schools was nearly identical, though the median values for profitable programs ($2.9 million) and money-losing ones ($873,000) were smaller.
Eastern Michigan consistently is one of the 52 FBS schools losing money on football.  Evidence A?  The fact that Eastern Michigan's attendance doesn't even meet NCAA regulations without help of their biggest sponsor:
"NCAA rules stipulate a school must average 15,000 fans per home football game to remain in Division I. Eastern Michigan, which averaged 6,401 fans per home game in 2010, uses $150,000 from a distribution contract with Pepsi to purchase tickets from itself at a rate of $3 apiece to remain NCAA compliant."
The tickets can be bought at a third of their price ($3), because EMU's highest ticket price is a mere $9.  Oh, and those attendance figures are including the students who get in free of charge as well.  For the 2009 season, EMU had the lowest attendance in Division-I, at a paltry 5,016 fans per game.  They brought in under $300,000 in ticket sales revenue, and for an athletic department that totaled expenses of over $24 million, that's unacceptable.  In 2010, thanks to Pepsi and other sponsors, they were able to surpass 15,000 "fans" per game: 
Three other sponsorship agreements on smaller scales account for more ticket sales, Malach said. Together, the agreements added 55,000 tickets sold to the 2010 totals, jumping Eastern’s average from 6,401 fans per game to 17,492 - compliant, by NCAA standards.
If EMU had averaged under 15,000 "fans" again, they would have lost D-I football status, and likely would have been demoted to the FCS (or Division I-AA) level.  After the purchase of the $3 tickets by Pepsi, EMU had increased their attendance figures enough to avoid trouble with the NCAA.  And because Pepsi had to buy so many of the tickets, ticket sales fell even further, to under $150,000.

To attempt to attract better players and improve the team's on-field play, EMU built a "practice bubble" that cost over $3 million as well, mostly funded by the university.  This practice bubble isn't going to do anything for the athletic program in all reality, as the facility houses the practices of a team that hasn't seen a bowl game appearance since 1987, the year of its only bowl win in its history.  The team is 2-22 over the past two years, and often attempts to make money by offering itself as a sacrificial lamb to teams like Ohio State and Michigan.  Those schools offer up to $1,000,000 for EMU to come play them, because both parties know the game will inevitably be a blowout in favor of the big-time school.  EMU often plays less home games than road games because they receive a payment for these games and their ticket sales are too low at home to justify playing a full schedule of home games.

The reality is that Eastern Michigan is an FCS football program disguised as a Division I football program, and needs to drop down to the FCS level for numerous reasons. 

1.) Decreased expenditures on the football program

All Division I schools can each have up to 85 full-ride scholarship players on its football team at any time.  In 2009-10, this student aid alone cost EMU $6,692,941 according to usatoday.com.  FCS schools are only allowed a maximum 63 football scholarships each.  Decreasing the number of football scholarships by 25% would save EMU probably about $400,000 to $500,000 (assuming a $20,000 - $25,000 per year scholarship).  Other sports may experience similar decreases in scholarships, but I won't attempt to estimate those numbers, there are simply too many sports.  Football going D I-AA is my focus, the other sports aren't nearly as crucial to change.  All other football costs would likely decrease as their are less mouths to feed, less people to get on buses/planes, etc. 

USA Today just released their 2010 figures detailing college subsidies to athletic programs.  The figures show how much of athletic departments' revenues at most universities are actually subsidies (subsidies include direct and indirect institutional financial support, student fees, and direct state support).  In fact, EMU's 84% figure and financial total of $22 million of subsidies paid to athletics are both the highest of any school with a D-I football team.    Only 16% of EMU's athletic revenues come from

Additionally, these Division I-AA teams can still play the part of sacrificial lamb and get paid millions to go lose to powerhouse teams like EMU did with OSU and Arkansas in recent years.  Additionally, attendance is already so low that it's highly doubtful they'd lose attendance.  Whoever goes to EMU apparently likes the product they're putting out there currently, so how could it hurt to watch a more competitive game? 

2) Division I schools who perform well do draw MORE students... but not better ones.

Many studies have been done to test the correlation between a team's success on the football field and number of applications received.    This theory started with the Hail Mary miracle touchdown that Boston College QB Doug Flutie threw against Miami in 1984.  In the two admissions processes following this miracle win, BC's applications received increased by a total of 30%, and this is often referred to as the ":Flutie Factor".  What likely didn't occur was an increase of over-qualified students applying to the school, which defeats part of the purpose.  Sure, schools would love to recognize extra revenue by accepting more students.  But a school like EMU simply can't handle as many students as universities like Michigan, Texas and Boston College can.  EMU is about a 20,000 student school, and they accept most applicants.  They even offer in-state tuition rates to Ohio applicants to try to attract more students and enough students.  EMU's basic requirements for admissions are a 2.0 GPA and 18 or higher ACT score.  I attended EMU for two years, and I'll still feel comfortable saying that EMU is a mediocre university or fallback school for those who can't get into better universities.  Very rarely is EMU a first choice destination for a good student.    Personally, I attended Eastern Michigan for two years to take core requirement classes, because they were cheaper.   Had their rates matched the price of U-M's, I would have attended U-M all four years without a doubt.

Schools do receive increased applicants in cases such as Boston College's.  But in order for that to happen, the football team also needs to experience actual success and major improvement on the field.  EMU hasn't shown an ability to do either yet, and there's absolutely no reason to think that the football program is going to find a sudden dearth of talent and hidden gems and surge to a MAC Championship.  If they had the success of say a Central Michigan during Dan LeFevour's time at QB, or a near undefeated season like Ball State did a few years back, I have no doubt they'd look better in the eyes of the public.  Given such an extreme level of improvement, I'd admit that Eastern Michigan could be in line to receive higher quality applicants. 

A study done by Chad McEvoy at The SMART Journal had findings along the same lines as previous studies, that success on the field led to increased applicants:
For the schools that had football teams whose conference winning percentage increased by .250 or greater realized a 6.1% gain in undergraduate applicants the following year.
Additionally, the study pointed out the obvious flaw in such a figure.  A school in EMU's situation isn't going to generate the same excitement that Michigan would if they increased from 7 wins last year to 10 this year:
All winning percentage increases and decreases are not necessarily the same. For example, a winning percentage increase of .250 is quite important for a football team going from seven victories and perhaps a bowl bid to ten victories and a chance to compete for a national championship, while the same winning percentage increase is not likely to make a dramatic difference for a team with zero wins one year and three wins the next.
Finally, the fact that EMU is in the Mid-American Conference further detracts from the likelihood that increased success would lead to increased applicants.  The MAC, Sun Belt, C-USA and the other non "Big-Six" conferences just don't receive the same type of football press that the Big Ten and Pac 12 do.  EMU increasing from 2 wins to 6 wins would be a non-story in the national media, and wouldn't even draw much more press locally.  On EMU campus, students would definitely notice, but again, they don't have to pay to attend games, and already attend the university.  Unless a team in the MAC has a year like Ball State did when they had a chance to be a BCS-buster, or has a star like Dan Lefevour, no team in the conference is going to get national press.  MAC teams only make national TV appearances on Tuesday and Wednesday nights on ESPN, and while they're very unpopular football nights, EMU could flaunt this as a reason not to leave the conference and go D I-AA... if they ever were on ESPN in those night games.  The usual suspects in such games are Central Michigan, Ohio, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Bowling Green... but never Eastern Michigan.  And it's probably for the best, because they're thrown around like rag dolls by the better teams that they face, and the more they appear on TV as a losing program, the worse they appear.  Until they improve (at the least a four year process) to the point of MAC contender, they won't get TV time and their very limited TV time will be in losses.

Because of all of the above reasons, it's hard to believe that even if EMU did improve, that the public would view them as a "better" university and that they'd attract better students.  If EMU was allowed to admit more students should they receive more applications, they'd receive more revenue surely.  But regardless if EMU has 20,000 or 40,000 students, their reputation as a university and athletic department aren't likely to improve.

3) There's more room for success in Division I-AA Football.

As rarely as EMU is a first choice for a good student, EMU rarely is the apple of a top prospect's eye.  In fact, in the past 5 years, Eastern has only gotten 3 commitments from players ranked even a 3-star prospect by Scout.com (Scout rarely actually ranks prospects lower than 3 stars).  That number is staggering, and completely proves that even 3-star prospects don't view Eastern Michigan as a football team with the ability to improve, and they shouldn't be expected to.  While EMU has struck gold by sending a couple players to the NFL recently in Jason Jones (DT, 2nd round) and T.J. Lang (OT, 4th round), they haven't experienced success on the field, even with what was thought to be a great defensive mind in Ron English coaching up the team. 

Bringing the caliber of players that EMU currently does to Division I-AA should place them on a more even playing field.  Additionally, EMU's recent improvements to their training facilities should net them better D I-AA level recruits than most schools.  EMU has the potential to at least be an above .500 program in the Football Championship Subdivision and could even make the occasional playoff appearance.  20 teams appear in the FCS Playoffs on a yearly basis and those games are all broadcast on television.  Additionally, teams can get home games in FCS Playoffs, so EMU has the potential to host a playoff game down the road. 

EMU hasn't made a bowl game since 1987 and is 9-39 over the past four years. 
EMU's perception has more upward mobility at the FCS level where their upgraded facilities, recent NFL talent, and a big name coach could draw prospects from big-name FCS schools to Eastern Michigan and make them a perennial powerhouse should things go right.  In Division I, the best they can realistically hope for is an 8-4 season (far down the road) and a spot in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl. 

With more success, more fans will come to the stadium to watch a team.  Successful D I-AA programs like Villanova and Appalachian State outdraw EMU in attendance easily.  Appalachian State drew nearly 26,000 per game in 2010, and given that EMU's tickets are largely bought by sponsors (which many D I-AA teams don't have), the top 30 FCS teams outdrew EMU as well in attendance, going to show that success will draw fans.  EMU's attendance stands to rise if they move to the FCS level, as it's hard to believe they'd be less successful.  The draw of a prestigious coach, a former Division I-A program, and a better chance to win should all combine to help draw more fans and better players to the team.  


For the reasons above, Eastern Michigan has plenty of incentive to move down to Division I-AA in football.  They don't need to do it for every sport, and could explore offering more club sports in a move to cut athletic department costs as well.  But the first step to offering a more attractive football team and product on the field, is realizing their limits.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Who's The Best Pitcher in Baseball? Part 1: Reliability

Justin Verlander threw what I believe to be the best game of his career last night against the Indians (yes, more impressive than both no-hitters) in a complete game 2-hitter.  Verlander threw 117 pitches, striking out 12 and carrying a no-hitter into the 8th inning only to be broken up by a weak line drive into center field by SS Orlando Cabrera.  82 of his 117 pitches were strikes (70%!), and he constantly got ahead of the count on hitters.  He threw his curve in every count, whether as a finishing punch to seemingly every hitter, or to completely dumbfound and confuse hitters by opening an at-bat with the 78 MPH breaking ball.  Verlander finally, by his own admission, isn't just trying to throw past hitters and getting frustrated when they make contact, he's pitching strategically and with a level head.  With his newfound swagger and strategy, can JV truly claim to be one of the best pitchers in baseball yet?  I investigate this by trying to compose a top-5 list, based on numerous statistical measures.

There will be numerous parts of this series, the first being this post, exploring the reliability that each pitcher provides their respective team every fifth day, and how efficient they are while doing so.