There will be numerous parts of this series, the first being this post, exploring the reliability that each pitcher provides their respective team every fifth day, and how efficient they are while doing so.
The criteria I'll analyze the pitchers by, while taking into account their track records and present performances in each category, are:
- ERA
- ERA+ (a 110 ERA+ means they were 10% better than the average pitcher in their league)
- IP (Minimum of 550 innings from 08-10)
- IP/Start
- WHIP
I felt in order to be a reliable pitcher, there should be at least somewhat of a track record, or they must have excelled in their short time in MLB. I gave passes to Tommy Hanson and David Price, as they both became starters during the 2009 season and have either improved dramatically since or have produced well each year.
First the 2008-2010 chart:
| Pitcher | ERA (2008-10) | IP (2008-10) | IP/Start (2008-10) | ERA+ (2008-10) | WHIP (2008-10) |
| Roy Halladay | 2.67 | 735.2 | 7.5 | 159 | 1.07 |
| Adam Wainwright | 2.68 | 595.1 | 6.84 | 150 | 1.14 |
| Felix Hernandez | 2.69 | 689 | 6.96 | 155 | 1.18 |
| Tim Lincecum | 2.83 | 664.2 | 6.78 | 150 | 1.16 |
| Johan Santana | 2.85 | 600 | 6.82 | 144 | 1.175 |
| Josh Johnson | 2.94 | 480 | 6.4 | 144 | 1.17 |
| Cliff Lee | 2.98 | 667.1 | 7.17 | 142 | 1.12 |
| CC Sabathia | 3.07 | 720.2 | 6.99 | 142 | 1.15 |
| Tommy Hanson | 3.16 | 330.1 | 6 | 128 | 1.18 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 3.17 | 483 | 5.82 | 125 | 1.27 |
| Zack Greinke | 3.25 | 651.2 | 6.64 | 133 | 1.19 |
| Matt Cain | 3.27 | 658.2 | 6.59 | 130 | 1.21 |
| Jon Lester | 3.29 | 621.2 | 6.41 | 138 | 1.235 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | 3.36 | 538 | 5.98 | 121 | 1.275 |
| David Price | 3.36 | 337 | 6.24 | 121 | 1.25 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 3.43 | 638.1 | 6.38 | 137 | 1.27 |
| Roy Oswalt | 3.44 | 601.2 | 6.4 | 119 | 1.14 |
| Jair Jurrjens | 3.45 | 519.2 | 6.11 | 120 | 1.31 |
| Cole Hamels | 3.46 | 629.2 | 6.43 | 122 | 1.18 |
| Dan Haren | 3.47 | 680.1 | 6.74 | 127 | 1.14 |
| Jered Weaver | 3.65 | 612 | 6.31 | 117 | 1.19 |
| Justin Verlander | 3.84 | 665.1 | 6.59 | 114 | 1.24 |
Obviously, Roy Halladay jumps out, as he leads all 5 categories! Even with his two years pitching in the AL East, Doc Halladay was easily the most reliable pitcher in MLB from 2008-2010. A reliable pitcher is able to pitch 6-7 innings every night he's called upon, and Halladay is more than that, pitching an absurd 7.5 innings per start in those 3 years, never missing a start. He's one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball, using his five pitches spectacularly to make him more likely than not to throw 8 innings or a complete game every fifth night.
While 2nd place is close, I'd have to hand it to Felix Hernandez. The past two years, he's posted a 2.49 ERA in 238.2 innings and a 2.27 ERA (winning the Cy Young) in 249.2 innings. That's remarkable consistency and pure domination, which in the American League is definitely difficult. Cliff Lee comes as a close third, never posting an ERA above 3.11 over the 3 year span, with most of his tenure coming in the AL with Cleveland, Seattle, and Texas, and averaging over 7 innings per start. He dealt with back problems last year but they haven't come back to haunt him as of yet, so I'm going to disregard them due to his dominance.
Tim Lincecum comes out in fourth place in my rankings. The two-time NL Cy Young Winner and two-time NL strikeout leader already has posted 1,000+ strikeouts in his short career, but he's done so in an efficient and consistent manner. From 2008-2010, he posted a sparkling 2.83 ERA and still averaged close to 7 innings a start even with his high strikeout numbers. Fifth is CC Sabathia. While his ERA isn't as impressive as the top 4 candidates, he easily has the second highest amount of innings pitched over the past 3 seasons at 720.2, and never missed a start. While with the Brewers, he even pitched on 3 days rest multiple times to help his team, and still wasn't injured. Pitchers that have the endurance to pitch as many innings as CC without injury have to be recognized.
Sixth through tenth in order, I would put Jon Lester, Adam Wainwright (top 3 in the NL Cy Young twice), , Dan Haren, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Matt Cain. Lester's ERA was between 3.2 and 3.4 during each of the three years, and he's continued to develop as a dominant ace in the AL East. Wainwright was dominant but also missed 2 1/2 months in 2008 which has to be factored in. Rounding out the top 10, Dan Haren was dominant with the Diamondbacks, pitching to 3.33 and 3.14 ERAs his first two seasons, and doing well in his third before being forced to adjust to the AL, where he struggled a bit. Ubaldo Jimenez had a Cy Young caliber year and improved each year from 2008-2010. He was a bonafide ace at the close of 2010, and also possessed the fastest average fastball in MLB simultaneously. Matt Cain is a worthy right-hand man to Lincecum, throwing nearly 6.6 innings per game, and posting a sub-4 ERA all 3 years, even as a flyball pitcher. His park definitely helps his case, but the point remains, he posted a 2.89 ERA and 3.14 ERA the past two years.
Those that were close but didn't make the cut include:
- Wandy Rodriguez: He's really making a case to be one of the ten most consistent and reliable pitchers, but it'd be nice to see him increase his innings total by about 20 or 30 this season compared to prior years. He's posted 3 straight seasons of sub 3.6 ERAs, and only missed 8 starts. He just barely missed the cut, and along with Bud Norris (I'll likely touch on him in another part of this series), the Astros have a good 1-2 punch in their rotation.
- Justin Verlander: Because of his 4.84 ERA in 2008, I had to omit him from the list. Without that hiccup, he'd undoubtedly be in the top 10. This year, he's been phenomenal, and is in serious discussion for AL Cy Young for 2011, especially with his .89 WHIP currently (a full .35 lower than 08-10!). He's finally pitching, not just throwing heat, and it's shown by the fact that Verlander, who has one of the best fastballs in the majors, is only throwing his 4-seam fastball 44% of the time and his 2-seam fastball 10% of the time. That 54% rate is the lowest of his career, and in his best years, he's thrown less fastballs. Justin's .221 BABIP against surely won't hold up, and we're going to see him fall back a bit from this ERA, but regardless, he's having a career year and it's to be commended. For the 2008-10 list though, Verlander doesn't make the cut.
- Tommy Hanson: He's been solid, but only goes 6 innings per game, which while he's consistent, puts a burden on a bullpen. For a top-5 or top-10 starter, they should be able to go 6.5-7 innings a game and that's my main gripe with him. He's got amazing stuff, but I don't know that I'd go as far as to call him reliable AND efficient which is what this list was measuring. He seems to get injured a fair amount too, so he can't really qualify here.
- David Price: If he didn't have an ERA over 4 in 2009, he'd be on this list, but he has to establish a certain level of performance before I personally call him one of the 10 most reliable and efficient pitchers.
- Clayton Kershaw: He's a young gun that will headline the Dodgers' rotation for years to come, but he's also posting a career-high walk rate and career-low ground ball rate, and is a pure strikeout pitcher, going less than 6 innings a game. I'd rather have the guy with a slightly higher ERA that can pitch 50 more innings each year (i.e. Dan Haren)
- Jered Weaver: He led the league in Ks last year and pitched over 220 innings, so he's showing he can be a reliable and efficient workhorse simultaneously. he might make an appearance on the next list..
- Josh Johnson: He's easily the best pitcher left off the list, and quite possibly has the best stuff in baseball, but unfortunately is too often injured to be labeled as reliable and efficient.
- Jair Jurrjens: The man that Dave Dombrowski traded straight up for Edgar Renteria posted a 2.64 ERA in 2009, a respectable 3.68 ERA in 2008, and is one of the MLB ERA leaders in this early season. Unfortunately, he's fairly injury prone, and had a horrible year in 2010 that disqualifies him. Should he finish out this year with a sub-3 ERA, he'll have an argument to be in the top 10.
- Cole Hamels: Hamels has posted two years in the low-3 ERAs, but his 2009 season included a 4.32 ERA. While low-3 ERAs are impressive.. in the NL and compared to other top pitchers, Hamels simply wasn't high enough to make the cut. If he keeps up his 2011 season he'll likely make my list next year.
- Jered Weaver: Jered is squarely in the conversation after his 2010 season which was dominant. His 233 Ks and 6.6 innings per start were impressive. Jered's definitely got a dependable arm, as he doesn't suffer injuries often and usually averages 6.5-7 innings per start. He's improved quite a bit the past two years.
| Pitcher | ERA (2011) | IP (2011) | IP/Start (2011) | ERA+ (2011) | WHIP (2011) |
| Josh Johnson | 1.64 | 60.1 | 6.7 | 239 | 0.98 |
| Jered Weaver | 2.06 | 109.1 | 7.29 | 183 | 0.92 |
| Josh Beckett | 2.06 | 83 | 6.38 | 198 | 1.01 |
| Jair Jurrjens | 2.12 | 84.1 | 7.01 | 176 | 1.09 |
| Roy Halladay | 2.39 | 105.1 | 7.52 | 160 | 1.05 |
| Tommy Hanson | 2.48 | 83.1 | 5.94 | 152 | 1.03 |
| Cole Hamels | 2.49 | 97.2 | 6.98 | 154 | 0.92 |
| Dan Haren | 2.54 | 99.1 | 7.08 | 148 | 0.98 |
| Justin Verlander | 2.66 | 111.2 | 7.44 | 146 | 0.89 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | 3.13 | 72 | 6.55 | 117 | 1.31 |
| Roy Oswalt | 3.14 | 63 | 5.73 | 122 | 1.27 |
| CC Sabathia | 3.28 | 107 | 7.13 | 127 | 1.23 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 3.28 | 98.2 | 6.58 | 109 | 1.125 |
| Felix Hernandez | 3.3 | 106.1 | 7.09 | 114 | 1.19 |
| Tim Lincecum | 3.41 | 92.1 | 6.6 | 108 | 1.19 |
| Cliff Lee | 3.41 | 95 | 6.79 | 113 | 1.21 |
| David Price | 3.51 | 97.1 | 6.94 | 105 | 1.04 |
| Matt Cain | 3.61 | 92.1 | 6.6 | 102 | 1.19 |
| Jon Lester | 3.73 | 89 | 6.38 | 109 | 1.28 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 4.63 | 72 | 6 | 96 | 1.375 |
| Zack Greinke | 4.69 | 48 | 6 | 84 | 1.17 |
| Adam Wainwright | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Johan Santana | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Looking at this leaderboard we notice that a few of the top guys are having off years, namely Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, and Felix Hernandez. However, if an off year is a 3.41 ERA for Cliff Lee, or a 3.7 ERA in the AL East for Jon Lester, or a 3.3 ERA for King Felix, that's a credit to how good the pitchers are. Players like Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Jair Jurrjens, Ubaldo Jimenez were left off because they are either in the midst of a down year and/or had a poor year in the 2008-10 period that decreases their consistency.
After taking 2011 into consideration, I revised my top 10 list a bit to reflect age, endurance and health, and if they've improved:
1. Roy Halladay
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Cliff Lee
4. Tim Lincecum
5. CC Sabathia
6. Dan Haren
7. Jon Lester
8. Justin Verlander
9. David Price
10. Matt Cain
This list obviously takes the present into account, and some of this year's early leaders worked their way onto the list because of that. The top 5 remains the same, because they're just too consistent to move down. Felix, Cliff, Lincecum will all improve their spots, and Sabathia's having another solid season. Haren moved up my list because he's displayed that he's adjusted to the AL now, and has been dominant this year. Haren's 3 spectacular years in Arizona too show that he's a reliable commodity. Jon Lester's sparkling consistency in the AL East has to be commended, and he sits squarely at #7, only being passed by Dan Haren.
New additions to the list are Justin Verlander and David Price towards the bottom. Verlander's having a dynamite year, pitching to a 2.66 ERA and throwing almost 7.5 innings per start! Earlier in the year, Fox showed a graphic of the most consecutive starts with 100+ pitches. Justin had 25... the runner-up was CC Sabathia with 12. Justin has thrown 100+ pitches in every start this year, and has shown to be very dependable. While his ERA will likely fall back a bit, a low-3 ERA is great in the AL. And as I said earlier, I'll take a low-3 ERA pitcher that throws 230 innings over a 2.8 ERA pitcher that throws 190 and taxes the team's bullpen. David Price has a far lower WHIP than most of the pitchers in the 2011 chart, and because of that he makes the list. He's not allowing many baserunners, and his ERA will soon reflect that as it creeps down toward 3. Pitching in the AL East gives pitchers a little more breathing room for ERA on this list. Combined with his amazing 2010 season, I'm going to throw Price onto the bottom-end of my top 10.
Ubaldo Jimenez falls off the list due to his horrid year so far. When he turns it around, he'll be back in the conversation, but he's getting beat up too badly to be considered a top-10 reliable and efficient pitcher. Adam Wainwright was removed because he's recovering from Tommy John surgery, but if he comes back in 2012 and is still the same pitcher, he's undoubtedly on this list, and may even move into the top 5.
So, there's my personal top ten list of reliable/efficient pitchers in baseball. It was tough for even me to decide, but all of these guys display amazing control and/or endurance to keep themselves in games for longer and put their teams in position to win every night.
In my next article, I'll take a look at the top 10 pitchers who exhibit extreme control of their pitches but are still dominant.
good work
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