Tuesday, November 30, 2010

With One OF Spot Left, Who Should the Tigers Sign?

The Detroit Tigers have been one of the more active teams thus far in 2010-11 Free Agency, but according to Dave Dombrowski they look to be nearly finished revamping the lineup itself.

Coming from the Detroit Free Press:
"We think Raburn will step up," Dombrowski said. "So we're only talking about one other spot in the lineup — because as you look at the infield being settled, catching being settled, DH being settled, now you're talking about the outfield.
"We'll have to analyze if it's where we go with what we have within, how do we supplement it — we'll have to sit back and decide that."


According to this quote, right field would be the "one other spot" to address on offense with the following players already fixtures at their positions:

(Starter/Backup)
C: Alex Avila/Victor Martinez
1B: Miguel Cabrera/Victor Martinez
2B: Carlos Guillen/Danny Worth, Scott Sizemore, Ramon Santiago
SS: Jhonny Peralta/Danny Worth or Ramon Santiago
3B: Brandon Inge/ Don Kelly (*barf*)
LF: Ryan Raburn/Brennan Boesch
CF: Austin Jackson
RF: ??????


With the position in question, I'll explore five potential names we could see play there next year.

1.  Magglio Ordonez: Hey, a familiar face!  I really don't believe that the Tigers are going to be able to go outside the organization to bring in a new outfielder for 2011 even though they'll try their hardest.  Magglio is a fan favorite and was the second most productive Tiger (behind Miguel Cabrera) in April and May before injuries de-railed his season.  In his resurgent season, he produced a .303/.378/.474 slash line  (BA/OBP/SLG) and .852 OPS, for a total of 2.5 WAR in only 84 games.  Had Magglio played approximately 150 games, Magglio himself would have been worth 4.5 to 5 wins above an average MLB player, hitting near 20 HRs and driving in nearly 90 runs. 

To expect that level of production from him is a bit outlandish, as he's 36 years old and health has been a problem for him in Detroit the past couple years, but he can still be a very productive batter and average fielder for 120-130 games.  Additionally, he would come at a fair price, (possibly even a hometown discount) and could help protect Miguel Cabrera in the lineup at least through this season.

Projected Cost: 2 years, $20 million
Projected Team: Detroit Tigers
Projected Production (130 games): .300/.365/.450 (.805 OPS), 15 HR, 85 RBI, 80 R


 2. Jayson Werth

Jayson Werth's transformation into a star player almost as soon as he arrived in Philadelphia is remarkable and was a major reason that the Phillies were able to win a World Series, and return in 2009.  Over the past two seasons, Jayson Werth has averaged the following:

155 G, 563 AB, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 14 SB, 102 R, .282/.381/.519 (.900 OPS), 5 WAR.

Werth has produced one of the most complete statlines in baseball over the past two seasons and would be a welcome addition to any lineup.  However, he carries quite a hefty pricetag with him, a below average to average glove at the position, and a tendency to strike out quite a bit (although that's offset by his high OBP).  As the second most prized FA outfielder this offseason behind Carl Crawford, and a Scott Boras client, Werth is getting paid, bigtime.  The Tigers lost $30 million as an organization in 2009, and probably close to that in 2010, so bringing on this much payroll long-term may not be realistic.
Projected Cost: 5 years, $85 million
Projected Statistics in 2011: Near his averages of 2009-10.
Projected Team: Boston Red Sox, to replace J.D. Drew's injury-prone self.

3.  Carl Crawford

Crawford is the most sought after offensive player on the market this offseason, and would bring along with him an element that the Tigers solely lack, speed on the basepaths.  Crawford had a career year last season, of course in his contract year.  Crawford finally put together all the skills that people have always believed he possessed, hitting 19 HR, driving in 90 runs, and stealing 47 bags, while winning his first career Gold Glove.  Crawford couldn't have capitalized at a better time, as he's in line for a HUGE payday.  He's a consistent .300 hitter, a great fielder, and a menace on the basepaths, all three of which the Tigers need.

Having said that, Crawford is being pursued heavily by the Los Angeles Angels, and probably will end up signing there.  He's going to command a massive payday, second only to Cliff Lee this offseason, and probably is out of the Tigers' price range, for good reason as he'll be highly overpaid for his services by year 3 or 4 of the contract.  I personally believe last year was a career year for Carl Crawford and he won't approach that type of production again from the plate.  He'll still be a very solid player, and while Carl Crawford and Austin Jackson at the top of the lineup would be a dynamic combination that would scare pitchers, it's not very likely. 

Projected Cost:   6 years, $110 million
Projected Team: Los Angeles Angels
Projected Stats in 2011: .300/.350/.450 (.820 OPS), 15 HR, 70 RBI, 60 SB, 110 R

4. Johnny Damon

While unlikely, Damon would be a cheap and friendly filler for the RF job.  If he gets this job, he would likely split time with Brennan Boesch because of his age.  Damon's poor throwing arm would be a big liability in RF, and at best, he's a slightly above average hitter now.  He wouldn't take much money to get, but if they're going to go this route, they may as well just give the job to Brennan Boesch and Casper Wells.

Projected Cost: 1 year, $3 million
Projected Team: New York Yankees if they don't re-sign Lance Berkman, otherwise the Kansas City Royals.
Projected Stats:  Likely will be bench player/"good clubhouse influence".  Stands a chance at starting should he go back to his initial team, Kansas City.

5. Adam Dunn

If Adam Dunn did come to Detroit, he surely wouldn't be playing right field.  He's a pretty bad fielder, and can't be slotted at 1B since Miguel Cabrera is there.  Dunn could however fit in as the DH on the days that Victor Martinez catches, and could play LF on all other days, shifting the versatile Ryan Raburn to RF.  Adding another huge power threat like Dunn would give Detroit a 3-4-5 of Adam Dunn-Miguel Cabrera-Victor Martinez, arguably one of the best 3-player combos in any MLB lineup.  After receiving only a 2 year, $20 million deal in 2009 from Washington, Adam Dunn looks to capitalize and receiver a more lucrative and long-term contract.  However, he'll be more affordable than either Crawford or Werth, making him a slightly more realistic option. 

Projected Cost: 4 years, $60 million
Projected Team: Chicago White Sox
Projected Stats: .260/.380/.500, 40 HR, 100 RBI

If I had my personal choice, I would take Dunn of these 5, and there's a good chance that he's strongly considering Detroit right now.  However, I believe that in the end, Magglio Ordonez will be your starting Right Fielder in 2011.