Albert Pujols: Can St. Louis Afford to Sign Him?

As everyone knows, the negotiating deadline for Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals has passed, resulting in nothing but media hype and a likely panicked front office.  The Cardinals reportedly offered Albert Pujols in between $19 and 21 million dollars a year, which quite frankly is an insulting amount for the best player in baseball, and the best of our generation.  Pujols leads all active MLB players in AVG, OBP, SLG, and obviously OPS as a result.  To let the most productive hitter in baseball leave St. Louis would be devastating to the organization.  However, the Cardinals' organization's best choice, as blasphemous as it sounds, may very well be to let Albert Pujols leave in free agency. 

The overwhelming reason he's got to go for St. Louis to remain a financially functional team is that Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols would take up more than 40% of the Cardinals' spending cap.  Matt Holliday's $17 million per year contract stretching through 2016 seemed like a good idea at the time, when everyone was ignoring that Pujols would become a free agent the next year.

Let's take a look at the Cardinals' payroll and their future obligations:

Blue = Option that will likely be accepted, Red = Option likely to be turned down

The Cardinals' payroll this year after minor league call-ups and other factors will likely end up around $110,000,000 which is honestly probably more than they wanted to spend this year. As we can see in 2011, the Cardinals have seven players hitting free agency, but only four are important decisions: Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Ryan Franklin and Chris Carpenter. Berkman likely won't return which clears up $8 million, and Ryan Franklin will likely pursue a closer job elsewhere and more money, freeing up another $3.5 million.

However, given the FA losses, the Cardinals only have 16 players that will be signed for 2012, 17 if they pick up Chris Carpenter's option which would increase payroll to $70,000,000.  Now let's look at their payroll after adding in a backloaded Albert Pujols contract for about 10 years and $250 million starting in 2012:

Adding in a backloaded contract may enable the Cardinals to actually keep Pujols, or if they defer payments of his contract to future years, but let's also remember, this scenario requires Pujols leaving about $50 million on the table.  However, when we look at even 2012, their financial situation becomes concerning.  The Cardinals' payroll last year was their highest ever.. at $94,220,500 according to Cot's Contracts, so they're already overstretching their limits this year.  In one of the smaller markets in MLB, the Cardinals only have so much of a fanbase to draw from.  They do have one of the more loyal fanbases in the league, but even still have a tough time managing to generate enough revenue to have a $100 million payroll. 

In 2012, the first year of Pujols' deal, the rammifications of their decision to sign him would already become very apparent.  Chris Carpenter, runner-up in the 2009 NL Cy Young and workhorse of the Cardinals' rotation, has a $15 million club option that the Cardinals must decide on.  While he'll be 37, he's still a very productive pitcher, and likely will command a similar salary in the free agent market.  Jaime Garcia and Colby Rasmus will also demand large raises in arbitration, and the $75,000,000 total payroll in the second excel chart's total salary is, again, without Chris Carpenter's $15,000,000 option.  So they would have about $25,000,000 left over that year to sign 9 players for their team, which could be done.  Considering that they'd be losing an ace in Carpenter however, it's unlikely the players they'd sign would be enough to keep them at the same level of contention. 

Well, couldn't they just depend on their minor league system?  If they do, they'll fall out of contention for a couple years at least, and likely more, as most of their prospects aren't expected to pan out until late 2012/2013 at the earliest.  They do have an ace-in-training, prospect SP Shelby Miller, in the minors currently, who they may expect to take Carpenter's place and will likely lead to Carpenter's departure. The depth beyond that is very questionable however.  Also, depending on a minor league system is extremely dangerous, especially when the Cardinals' is considered mediocre.  Overall, more prospects flame out or only fulfill a portion of their potential than develop into stars.  Unless the Cardinals hit the lottery again like they did with Pujols, they'll be in trouble.

In 2013, the Cardinals would drop Kyle Lohse's contract, and Jake Westbrook's option will likely be declined, which would give them $25 million more to spread around.  Even still, they'd be left with about $47 million to sign 14 players that year, an even more difficult task and would have to replace three starting pitchers, and that's BEFORE Colby Rasmus and their other young guns get sizeable raises in arbitration.  They also would have to be cognizant of the fact that Colby Rasmus, Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, Jaime Garcia, and Adam Wainwright would all be closing in on free agent status and will command big contracts to stay on board.  The Cardinals couldn't realistically afford to keep them all, and would likely have to let Motte, McClellan, and one of the 3 stars in that list (probably Adam Wainwright) leave, which would hinder the team greatly, This is also not to mention that Albert would command salaries of $27-30 million towards the end of this hypothetical contract, so their financial mobility would only continue to decrease through the years. 

The 10 year, $200 million contract that most are estimating the Cardinals offered Pujols is realistically about the best they can offer, and may even still be too high for an organization that maxes payroll out right around $100 million.  The team can't sign a new TV contract until about 2017, so they can't count on more revenue through that route either. 

The NL Central isn't 5 pushovers and the Cardinals anymore either as it was in some years.  The Brewers made a huge splash this offseason, acquiring two aces in Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, and have a young team with staying power based around a dominant top 3 pitchers (the above two and Yovani Gallardo) and solid offensive contributors like Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee, and Corey Hart. The Reds also look to have staying power, with a very young and still improving rotation, and Joey Votto (2010 NL MVP), Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Yonder Alonso to carry their offense in the future.

The Cardinals weren't proactive at all in extending Pujols, and probably could have avoided this situation if they offered him an even longer extension in say 2007 or 2008, but they either didn't look ahead or counted on Pujols taking a team-friendly deal, both of which are quite foolish of them.

In the end, the $17 million of flexibility that was taken away when they signed Matt Holliday is what will likely lead to Pujols' departure.  Paying 2 players almost $40 million annually is feasible for the Yankees/Cubs/Red Sox/etc., but not for a smaller market like St. Louis.  The Cardinals under this scenario would lose several marquee players within a few seasons, which is likely too much to replace cheaply and remain at a similar competitive level.  Regardless, I do think the Cardinals will eventually give into Pujols and re-sign him to a contract similar to my projection, even though keeping Pujols may limit their financial flexibility to the point that they are never true World Series contenders.

Detroit Tigers 2011 Preview: Catcher

Pitchers and catchers reported yesterday, meaning baseball is almost back!  The season is approaching quickly and the Tigers look to have a set roster now.  I'll analyze the Tigers and how well off they are at each position over the next couple weeks.

The first edition of this series will focus on the Detroit Tigers' catchers, Victor Martinez and Alex Avila, as well as looking ahead to the future for the Tigers at the position.

First 2011 NFL Mock Draft

The NFL season is over and it's time for my first 2011 NFL Mock Draft.  As the draft inches closer, I'll probably add in a 2nd round, and possibly a 3rd round should I feel ambitious enough.  

1. Carolina Panthers - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

The Panthers no longer have the fortune of selecting the unanimously heralded Andrew Luck, so they'll instead address their poor defensive line and select the most disruptive force on Auburn's national championship winning defense, Nick Fairley.  He was this year's version of Ndamukong Suh, and has earned his way up here.  The Panthers also probably don't have a ton of faith in Jimmy Clausen after last season, so Blaine Gabbert is also a possibility, but Fairley seems more realistic as Gabbert isn't nearly as polished of an NFL prospect.

Alternative Pick: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

2. Denver - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

With Champ Bailey turning 33 this offseason, the Broncos will likely look to move on from him and hand out a major contract to a younger stud CB like Patrick Peterson.  Peterson was the most feared CB in college football this season, and a dynamic, game-changing punt returner.  His first month of the season had him squarely in the Heisman race, and he won the Thorpe award for best defensive back.  The 6'1" 222 lb. physical freak will run a 4.4 (at least) and has great instincts, he'll be a constant at CB for the Broncos for the next decade.  If Champ Bailey does stay in Denver, look for the Broncos to address their DL as they return to a 4-3 defense, and to select Da'Quan Bowers, the defensive end from Clemson, or Nick Fairley should he still be available for some reason.

Alternative Selection: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

3. Buffalo - Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

The Bills will be running some 4-3 and some 3-4, and Da'Quan Bowers has the athleticism to play in either, so he would be a great selection here for the Bills.  The junior defensive end, formerly the #1 high school prospect in the nation, finally realized his insane potential, with 15.5 sacks and 25 tackles for loss this season.  Bowers is a true force on the defensive line and COULD frustrate offensive schemes for the next decade in the NFL.  The major problem with this pick: He has low work ethic as evidenced by his poor first two seasons, and the Bills don't know if they're running a 4-3 or 3-4 yet.  Unfortunately for Bills fans, they probably don't care about either and could very easily pull the trigger on Bowers.

If the Bills would like an outside linebacker that can play in the 4-3 and 3-4, they could also opt for Von Miller of Texas A&M who is another gifted, athletic freak. This just seems like a typical Buffalo Bills pick: a player with little work ethic that they don't know will truly fit into their scheme.

Alternative Selection: Von Miller, 3-4 OLB/4-3 WLB, Texas A&M

4. Cincinnati: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

AJ Green is a supremely talented wide receiver, and the best in this 2011 draft class.  Playing at Georgia and missing the first four games, he still excelled, catching 9 touchdowns and nearing 100 yards per game with young, unproven quarterback Aaron Murray at Georgia.  He'll take over immediately as the #1 or #2 receiver for the Bengals, depending on whether or not Chad Johnson (he changed it back!) is allowed to return.  The Bengals could also use some help along their DL and Robert Quinn of North Carolina could easily be selected here, especially since the Bengals don't usually care about character problems in players they acquire as we've seen over the years.

Alternative Selection: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

5. Arizona: Von Miller, 3-4 OLB, Texas A&M

Ken Whisenhunt worked with Dick Lebeau and learned to appreciate dynamic rush linebackers on the outside of a 3-4, and Von Miller will be Arizona's star linebacker of the future.  He had a great junior season and started really dominating through the second half of the season, and carried that momentum into a great Senior Bowl, where he showed he can play as a 4-3 LB in coverage as well, making him versatile enough to play in a nickel or dime scheme if asked to do so.  Arizona may also look at a QB here, probably Blaine Gabbert should they go with one, but it seems like with Max Hall and John Skelton in the fold, they'll go with them for another year, or bring in a veteran QB like Donovan McNabb or Kevin Kolb, especially with Fitzgerald's recent request for the organization to acquire Kolb.

Alternative Selection: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

6. Cleveland: Marcel Dareus, DE/DT, Alabama

The Browns don't exactly have a dominant defensive 3-4 front, so they'll opt for Marcel Dareus of Alabama, best known for knocking Colt McCoy out of the BCS Championship Game last season.  With Shaun Rogers owed $5.5 million next season and the Browns moving to a 4-3 defense, DT is a major need.  While DE is also a need, I think they'll choose to address the interior DL first.  Another possibility for Cleveland is the playmaking receiver from Alabama, Julio Jones.  He has underrated speed and a big body to break tackles and be a game-changing receiver in the NFL.

Alternative Selections: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama or Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

7. San Francisco: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

With the new Harbaugh regime coming in to lead the 49ers, Harbaugh will likely look to put his mark on the franchise immediately by taking a quarterback, especially seeing as he's a former quarterback.  Blaine Gabbert is pretty much the consensus #1 QB this year, although the top 3 or 4 QBs have little separating them.  Gabbert ran a spread offense in college, but has a great arm.  Him and Mallett have the best arms in the draft class and if Harbaugh runs a power-I based offense, you could see Mallett picked here.  Another possibility is to upgrade their secondary with Prince Amukamara, who is generally seen as near the equal of Patrick Peterson.

Alternative Selection: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska or Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas

8. Tennessee: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas

Tennessee will need a new coach and new QB this season as Jeff Fisher was fired and Vince Young is on the trade block or is being waived.  Similarly to San Francisco the Titans' coach will likely start his new regime with a quarterback as his first pick, and Mallett has the strongest arm in this draft class.  He can turn their offense into a more vertical-passing one, and will have one of the best deep balls in the NFL as soon as he arrives.  That arm can free up room for Chris Johnson to return to his dominance of 2009.  Cam Newton could also fit in here as he profiles similarly to Vince Young whom the Titans have worked with for five years.

Alternative Selection: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

9. Dallas: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa

Clayborn had somewhat of a down season, entering this year as a top-5 prospect, but he still played well and is in my opinion one of the most well-rounded 3-4 ends entering this draft.  Clayborn would address a major need for the Cowboys as they could lose DEs Jason Hatcher, Stephen Bowen and Marcus Spears to FA this offseason.  They could go many other routes as well, including Prince Amukamura of Nebraska should he fall this far, but I see them taking Clayborn and eliminating their DL problem.

Alternative Selection: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

10. Washington: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

Julio is a freak at wide receiver and will fill an immediate need for the Redskins.  I'd look for them to acquire a QB through free agency rather than take a risk with Newton or Locker here, if Mallett was still available I think Mike Shanahan would snatch him up immediately.  Jones is a big receiver who doesn't get enough credit for the speed he possesses because AJ Green is the faster of the top two receivers this year.  Jones can be a true #1 receiver in the NFL and should be for years to come as long as he can keep from dropping balls as he's prone to do. 

Alternative Selection: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

11. Houston: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

The Texans draft a corner with a first round pick for the first time since they drafted Dunta Robinson years ago, that worked out pretty well for them, this move will too. 

12. Minnesota: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

Minnesota could go Cam Newton here, but after drafting a project QB a few years back in Tarvaris Jackson and with another project QB in Joe Webb on their hands, it's highly doubtful they opt for yet another one.  Instead, since their DL didn't generate much pressure this year, they select Robert Quinn, who missed the whole season due to NCAA violations.  Ray Edwards may leave in free agency and Quinn offers them an opportunity to upgrade their DE spot opposite Jared Allen.

13. Detroit: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA

The Lions really could use some solid outside linebackers seeing as Julian Peterson is a shell of his former self and they haven't been able to lock anyone in at WILL LB.  Levy looks to be set at MLB should he stay healthy and the DL is set, but they should address the linebacking corps with this pick as no corners that are available are worth this high of a 1st round pick.

14. St. Louis: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois

Liuget jumped onto the scene this year, dominating at Illinois and constantly finding his way into the backfield.  We all know how much Steve Spagnuolo loved having a strong defensive line when defensive coordinator for the New York Giants.  The Rams need to address the whole DL, but I think they'll opt for a pass-rushing and disruptive DT like Liuget here before a defensive end.  This is a reach no doubt, but Spagnuolo will stick to his guns and Liuget will test well athletically.

15. Miami: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

This is the consensus pick across every mock draft.  The Dolphins lose Ronnie Brown and Ricky WIlliams to FA and it's hard to think that they'd offer Ronnie the best contract he can find on the open market after his constant injury problems.  Ingram is a tough but quick runner and would come into a starting role immediately behind a strong offensive line.  Ingram has shown he can handle a big workload, so he slots in perfectly here.

16. Jacksonville: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue 

Kerrigan won't test well by any speed or agility drill and may not look impressive strength-wise, but he's a savvy player that is relentless and finds a way to the quarterback regardless.  Kerrigan came on this year and basically was the Big Ten's 2010 version of Brandon Graham, and played well at the Senior Bowl, he'd fit in well at Jacksonville who desperately needs DE help.

17. New England (via Oakland): Cameron Jordan, DE/DT, Cal

The Patriots have two first round picks thanks to trading Richard Seymour earlier this year, and now they'll use Oakland's pick to draft Seymour's replacement, Cameron Jordan of Cal.  He dominated the Senior Bowl and was almost unblockable.  He's built similarly to Adrian Clayborn but could also play in a 4-3, making him a versatile weapon.  Slotting in Jordan right next to Wilfork would give the Pats a great DL for years to come.

18. San Diego: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh

Vincent Jackson is no doubt gone, and Malcolm Floyd can leave too in the offseason.  I commend Philip Rivers for putting up MVP-caliber numbers with Seyi Ajirotutu and Legedu Naanee as starting receivers, but to expect him to do so again is unfair.  Baldwin is a 6'5" 230 lb. receiver who offers the same physical threat in jump ball situations and the red zone that Vincent Jackson did and should fit in well with the Chargers' offense as the #2 option behind Antonio Gates.

19. New York Giants: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

The Giants couldn't protect Eli Manning as well as in years past and the running game struggled more than in years past as well, so they'll likely look to upgrade in the trenches with Nate Solder, the 6'8" 315 lb. tackle from Colorado.  Solder is a swift tackle, being a former tight end, and strong at the point of attack, he should help the Giants out immediately and could jump into a starting job next year potentially.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri

The Buccaneers have one of the worst starting pairs of defensive ends in the NFL, and Aldon Smith will be drafted to help them create an actual pass rush.  Since Simeon Rice left, the Bucs never really could find a suitable replacement and they'll hope that Aldon Smith can fill his large shoes.  Smith came on the scene as a freshman and played well this year despite injury.  He'll likely jump into an immediate starting spot here and may come off the board earlier.  He reminds scouts a lot of Jason Pierre-Paul, the Giants' 1st round pick in 2010, who was a dynamic athlete but extremely raw.  He could be great and a Pro Bowler, or could be a major bust.  

21. Kansas City Chiefs: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin

When Joe Thomas left for the NFL, Gabe Carimi was selected to fill his spot.  He did so admirably and made people forget about Joe Thomas very quickly.  Carimi is a dominating run blocker, as is typical for Badgers linemen, and did a good job protecting Scott Tolzien in the pocket.  Carimi will fit in with the run-heavy offense of the Chiefs and should start at RT in Week 1.

22. Indianapolis Colts: Derek Sherrod, OT, Miss. State

Sherrod fits the Colts' offensive philosophy and may very well be the most well-rounded offensive tackle in this draft class.  He excels in pass blocking and has the quickness to make blocks on the second level and pull outside if need be.  He should serve as a good LT for years to come for Peyton in Indianapolis.

23. Philadelphia Eagles: Anthony Costanzo, OT, Boston College

Andy Reid loves using his first pick on players in the trenches, and this year the offensive line is priority #1.  Michael Vick's frail build can't survive the same amount of hits he took this year, and the Eagles need to protect their franchise QB far better this year or he won't be their franchise QB much longer.  Costanzo is a good but not great tackle, but that's about the best the Eagles can expect here.  I'd expect them to trade up and go for a Sherrod or Solder, Philly usually makes waves on draft day.

24. New Orleans Saints: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State

The Saints' DL production dipped this season, a major reason their defense fell off in a big way.  Paea would probably be generating interest in the top half of the 1st round should he have finished the year healthy, but his knee injury will send him backwards in round 1.  He's a good value here to fit in alongside Sedrick Ellis and help the Saints generate more pressure up the middle on quarterbacks.

25. Seattle Seahawks: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Newton or Locker here?  Not even close as far as talent goes, Newton's the better QB.  Locker however does have two years of pro-style offense experience under Steve Sarkisian who worked with Leinart before going to Washington, and he's the hometown kid.  Wouldn't be shocking to see Locker go here, but the only way the Seahawks can really pull the trigger on that is if Newton's gone first, which in this scenario didn't happen.

26. Baltimore Ravens: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (FL)

The Ravens are desperate at corner, and only Ed Reed is singlehandedly keeping them from having the worst secondary in football.  This is EASILY their most pressing needs and Ozzie Newsome would be an idiot to not draft corner first round.  Brandon Harris and Aaron Williams will both be considered here, but I think Harris gets the nod.

27. Atlanta Falcons: Allen Bailey, DE, Miami (FL)

Allen Bailey is a physical freak and exactly the pass-rushing complement the Falcons need on the opposite side of an effective, albeit aging John Abraham.  The dynamic athlete at defensive end may even be able to kick inside to DT on 3rd downs as well, making him a versatile weapon for the Falcons' defense.

28. New England Patriots: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia

The Patriots could use a rush linebacker that's not Tully Banta-Cain, simple as that.  Houston will fill the slot opposite Jermaine Cunningham for the Pats' 3-4 defense.

29. Chicago Bears: Tyron Smith, OT, USC

The Bears desperately need OL help, although they pulled things together at the end of the season, their OL still got destroyed for the most part over the year and Jay Cutler took 50+ sacks over the season.  Tyron Smith has the POTENTIAL to be a good right tackle and possibly even a left tackle but is a definite project.  At 6'2" and 280-something, he needs to add about 30 pounds and maintain his quickness if he's to be a good left tackle.  My guess is he adds about 15 pounds and plays an undersized right tackle in the NFL.

30. New York Jets: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor

Taylor dominated the Senior Bowl and is a good nose tackle prospect.  He moved up from a 2nd-3rd round prospect to the low 1st round with his outstanding performance and with Kris Jenkins constantly injured, the Jets fill a major need here.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kendric Burney, CB, North Carolina

Burney also had a great performance in the Senior Bowl that helped make for the half season he missed along with many other Tar Heels due to NCAA violations.  Burney was dominant throughout the week and played well to close the 2010 season.  He's only 5'9" but he's a ballhawk and should help the Steelers out immediately.  Also under consideration here will be help along the OL (Mike Pouncey to play alongside his brother just like in college would be interesting), but after the passing clinic Aaron Rodgers put on against them in the Super Bowl, CB seems to be the most pressing need.

32. Green Bay Packers: Mike Pouncey, G, Florida

The Packers don't have an OL capable of run blocking, as evidenced by their mere 11 rushing attempts during the Super Bowl.  Even Andy Reid thinks they need to run the ball more than 20% of the time.  If they want Aaron Rodgers to not have to shoulder the entire load of the offense in the future, it's time to upgrade the offensive line.  They could use help at tackle and guard, but when choosing between the sixth best offensive tackle and their choice of any draftable guard, they'll likely go with the interior line help and select Mike Pouncey of Florida.