Free Agency Recap: Detroit Tigers

One year removed from a loss in the 12th inning of Game 163 costing the Tigers a playoff berth, they took a step back, falling to 81-81 for the 2010 season.  The acquisitions of Phil Coke, Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson, and Daniel Schlereth were good ones and all are expected to be major MLB contributors this season besides Schlereth.  However, while Coke and Scherzer performed admirably, the offensive ineptitude, especially with runners in scoring position, was largely pointed to as the prime reason for the Tigers' regression.   Rookies Brennan Boesch and Austin Jackson fell off in the second half of the season, largely depleting the offensive punch the Tigers displayed in the season's first half.


GM Dave Dombrowski quickly moved this offseason to improve the offense, signing one of the premier hitters available in Victor Martinez, and moved to solidify the pitching staff by adding Joaquin Benoit in what surprisingly was only the second most expensive setup-man contract handed out this offseason.


Good Decisions:


Signing Magglio Ordoñez (1 year, $10 million):


Magglio is a fan favorite in Motown, and there was no question in my mind that he was coming back, as I detailed in my first blog post:


I got the cost right per year, but the Tigers managed to get Magglio for a one-year deal since he struggled with injuries last year, which is even better for them.  If he produces a statline similar to the above, he'll probably be about a 4 WAR player, and will easily earn that $10 million contract. 


Signing Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Inge (2 years, $11.25 million and 2 years, $11.5 million)


Detroit's always been a loyal team to its players, and for that reason, I was not surprised in the least that Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Inge will be manning the left side of the infield for the next two seasons.  Inge is a great fielder and Peralta not so much, so Inge's range slightly helps make up for Peralta's lack of it.  While Inge's fielding skills and batting skills are declining, he still is a decent enough player that he'll earn his payday, even while suffering at the plate.  Jhonny Peralta had a down year the past two years, and may have simply lost his power at the plate, as his SLG% dropped below .400 over the past two seasons.  If Peralta can rediscover the gaps in Comerica Park, hitting a lot of doubles, and slam out 10-15 HRs, his bat should be enough to make up for his defense, making him a worthy choice at SS. 

Signing Joaquin Benoit (3 years, $16.5 million):


Yet another fireballing bullpen pitcher will be joining the Tigers this season, this time it's Joaquin Benoit, coming off a career- best season with the Tampa Bay Rays.  Last year he struck out more than a batter an inning (11.19 K/9) while pitching to a 1.34 ERA (2.43 FIP) in 60.1 innings.  As a result of his mastery on the mound, Benoit left over 95% of batters on base to end innings.  The MLB average for Left On Base % (LOB%) usually hovers around 70%, and Benoit has never posted a LOB% higher than 78.1% prior.  This means we can expect to see some regression from Benoit, probably to around a 3 ERA over the season, which is still extremely useful.  He's struggled with injury, missing all of 2009 due to injury, but came back better than ever in 2010, with the same velocity and stuff.


If Benoit can remain healthy for the duration of the deal, even as a reliever, he'll earn 1.5-2 WAR a season, making him well worth the money spent. 

The Jury's Still Out On:


Signing Victor Martinez as the primary DH (4 years, $50 million
Victor Martinez is no doubt a phenomenal hitter, and a great addition to the Tigers lineup.  However, his signing and accompanying pricetag are concerning from a value perspective. 


In V-Mart's career thus far, he's performed abysmally at Comerica Park, hitting .225/.321/.349 in 169 at bats.  Martinez readily admits that he's not a power hitter, and won't hit more than twenty, but seems to think his skill set can translate to Comerica and attributes his lack of success to the Tigers pitching:

Martinez is quick to credit Detroit’s pitchers for that—and now he won’t have to face them anymore. As for the ballpark’s effect on his home run total, he’ll just try to hit the ball to the gaps and see what happens.

“I say myself, I’m not a home run hitter. I hit my 20, but I’m more a line drive hitter,” Martinez said. “I might hit some triples. Watch out.”

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Year 5	G	R	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2005	147	73	20	80	.305	.378	.475	.853	130
2006	153	82	16	93	.316	.391	.465	.856	122
2007	147	78	25	114	.301	.374	.505	.879	129
2009	155	88	23	108	.303	.381	.480	.861	126
2010	127	64	20	79	.302	.351	.493	.844	122
162 Game Avg.	162	82	21	103	.300	.369	.469	.838	121

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/24/2011.

As we can see, Martinez has consistently posted strong OPS+ numbers (again remembering 100 is league average), and is one of the more consistent hitters in baseball.  I omitted 2008 as V-Mart struggled dealing with injuries that season and it was an aberration from his career to date.


The best situation to compare V-Mart's to is probably Jorge Posada.  Both are primary DHs but will end up catching 50+ games to take the load off of the young prospects at catcher.  Fangraphs.com adds/subtracts runs from a players Runs Above Replacement (RAR) rating based on where they played, and that number of RAR will almost directly correspond to the player's WAR. Generally if a player is 10 runs above average, they have a WAR of approximately 1, meaning they contributed one  win for their team more than a replacement-level player would have done.


Martinez has produced two straight 4.0 WAR seasons, and hopefully he can maintain that level for the first two years of the contract.  However, as a DH, he simply isn't as valuable as if he were a catcher, so if he declines in the back end of the contract, this deal will seem iffy.


We'll see what happens, if I had to choose either way, I still like the deal, but I really wish the Tigers would have paid $6 million more and gotten Adam Dunn to be our primary DH.


Best Bargain: Brad Penny (1 year, $3 million):


The Tigers' back end of the rotation was deplorable last year and they attempted to address it this year, by moving Phil Coke to the rotation, as well as bringing Brad Penny on board.  Penny made the All Star Team in 2006 and 2007, and struggled throughout 2008 and '09.  In 2010, Penny went to St. Louis to work with the pitching mastermind, Dave Duncan, and added a deadly splitter to his repertoire that was one of the best itches in baseball prior to Penny missing the rest of the season with injury.


Dave Duncan preaches forcing ground balls to his pitchers, and Wainwright, Carpenter, and Joel Pineiro all did that quite well last season, and Penny subscribed to the same formula for success.  He induced groundballs 52.8% of the time, and reduced the amount of walks he handed out per nine innings, as well as HRs surrendered per nine innings. 


If Penny produces like he did last season in his short season with a 3.23 ERA (3.40 FIP), the Tigers will be ecstatic.  Even if he falls off to about a 4.00 ERA or those whereabouts, that would be just fine for a 4th or 5th starter, which is all Penny is expected to be this year.  He does have to stay healthy, which he's always struggled with, but overall this is a great signing here by the Tigers, that at worst, backfires for a loss of $3 million.


Grade: B+


The Tigers were aggressive this offseason and knew they wanted Victor Martinez from the start.  He adds more Venezuelan influence to the lockerroom, creating even more chemistry within the Venezuelan group of hitters (Magglio, Guillen, Miguel Cabrera).  He solidifies the middle of the lineup, and while I would have preferred Adam Dunn, V-Mart is a fine consolation prize, and hopefully can help Alex Avila improve as well.  Brad Penny was a great bargain bin signing and a marked improvement over Armando Galaragga, and Joaquin Benoit gives the Tigers a reliable set-up man.  Dombrowski isn't prepared to count on Zumaya and/or Perry to be a consistent 8th inning option, but Benoit can.  The Tigers' bullpen is now deeper and hopefully can perform the way it did in the first half of 2010.  Lastly, the Tigers brought back Inge and Peralta on 2-year deals, mostly due to lack of alternatives at their positions.


I still think V-Mart needs to be playing catcher more often than 2-3 times a week, and that Adam Dunn was a better option to sign.  However, that being the only "drawback" that I see in free agency, the Tigers get a solid B+, and helped themselves out quite a bit this offseason.

Free Agency Recap: Los Angeles Angels

Good Decisions:

Signing Scott Downs (3 years, $15 million):

The Blue Jays made a big mistake letting Scott Downs hit the free agent market, and the Angels have reaped the benefits.  Scott Downs has quietly been one of the best and most consistent relievers in baseball over the past four seasons. 

He's posted ERAs of 2.17 (3.24 FIP), 1.78 (3.39 FIP), 3.09 (3.33 FIP), and 2.64 (3.03 FIP) over the past four years.  It's extremely difficult to post FIPs as low as Downs' ERA has been, so don't think that he's merely an overachiever due to the difference.  Downs posts insanely high ground ball rates year-in and year-out, ranging from 55.7% to 65.6% over the past four years.  As that would lead you to expect, Downs rarely gives up home runs, surrendering only 13 total over the past four seasons.  Downs pitches to contact, largely utilizing his fastball, last season almost 76% of the time.  The fastball is complemented by two other "plus" (in other words, above-average) pitches in his slider and curveball.  As a lefty, Downs has dominated left-handed batters, and hasn't allowed righties to hit over .250 against him over the past few seasons, so he's still even kept righties in line.

Downs hasn't ever had a long-term closing role, but he's probably in line to win the job on the Angels' pitching staff.   He's a contact pitcher, but seeing as he's a ground-ball pitcher, he should fare fine if thrust into the closer role.  The only other real option is Fernando Rodney, who as you may remember from his time as a Tiger, has electric stuff but is inconsistent to put it lightly.

Downs was a fantastic signing, and may actually be the best reliever signing of the entire offseason.  While the Angels did surrender a second round pick as compensation for signing the Type A free agent (their first round pick was protected), Downs should produce about 1+ WAR per season, making the signing a solid one, and one likely to recoup value equal to what Downs is paid.

Signing Hisanori Takahashi (2 years, $8 million):

Takahashi was a nice pickup, although he only has one year of experience, his 122 innings were solid overall.  Coming overseas last season to pitch for the Mets, Takahashi pitched in 53 games, 12 of them as a starter, pitching to a 3.61 ERA and 3.65 FIP.  fangraphs.com pointed out that he performed even more admirably in his "rookie season" as a reliever:

Also, Takahashi’s numbers were much better in relief. In 57.1 relief innings, he had a 9.42 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 2.59 FIP and 3.54 xFIP.

He has five pitches at his arsenal, but mostly operates with his fastball, slider, and changeup.  Batters seemed to sit on his fastball, since it was a below average pitch overall, but his slider was above average and his changeup was phenomenal.  Overall, Takahashi had above average control, only walking 2.61 per nine innings and allowed just about one HR every nine innings. 

Takahashi amassed 1.6 WAR over the season, and should provide about 1 WAR per season should he be utilized only as a reliever, which is expected given that the Angels' rotation is seemingly already set.  If Takahashi is inserted into the starting rotation, he may have a better chance to give the Angels a positive return on their investment, but regardless, his signing will benefit the Angels' back end of the bullpen.

Not Signing Adrian Beltre or Carl Crawford:

For the prices Beltre and Crawford were being paid, the Angels simply couldn't afford to sign them to such bloated salaries.  The Angels operate at a lower financial level than the Red Sox and at a similar one to the Rangers.  We'll probably see the Rangers struggling financially due to Beltre's bloated salary in a few years, similarly to how Michael Young's $16 million salary is weighing down their short-term options currently, preventing them from re-signing Vladimir Guerrero, since they have to play Michael Young somewhere (DH this year which was Guerrero's spot last season) to justify his massive pay. 


The Angels didn't come away with one of the big-name FAs, but for their financial sake, it's probably a good thing they didn't.

Bad Decisions:

Trading Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera for Vernon Wells


The Angels put themselves in competition with the Washington Nationals and Texas Rangers for most desperate acquisition this offseason.  The Angels missed out on Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre (for good reason, both were overpriced as could be), and refused to end this offseason without making a "big move".  So their idea of a big move was taking on one of the worst contracts in baseball by acquiring Vernon Wells and his 4 years and $86 million left on his contract.

Wells in 2007 and 2009 was a horrific underachiever, while he posted solid numbers in 2008 and 2010.  Even his good seasons left something to be desired however.  In both '07 and '09, Wells posted extremely low HR/FB rates (home runs hit/fly balls hit), half as low as the 14% rates in his '08 and '10 seasons.

Below are his statistics from 2003-2010:

Year	BA	lgBA	OBP	lgOBP	SLG	lgSLG	OPS	lgOPS	OPS+
2003	.317	.272	.359	.339	.550	.436	.909	.775	132
2004	.272	.275	.337	.344	.472	.442	.809	.786	105
2005	.269	.270	.320	.334	.463	.429	.783	.762	104
2006	.303	.275	.357	.340	.542	.438	.899	.778	129
2007	.245	.271	.304	.338	.402	.424	.706	.762	85
2008	.300	.266	.343	.333	.496	.417	.840	.751	122
2009	.260	.267	.311	.336	.400	.429	.711	.765	86
2010	.273	.260	.331	.328	.515	.408	.847	.736	127

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/24/2011.

As you can see, this table puts Vernon Wells' yearly BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS up against what a league average hitter would have done.  In 2007 and 2009, we can see that Wells underacehived in BA, and to a much further extent in OBP, falling 34 points and 25 points below the league OBP respectively in those years.  Even his slugging percentages fell more than 20 points below the league adjusted SLG%. 

His defense has also fallen off the past three years, as he's posted negative defensive ratings by almost every notable defensive statistic across the board in CF for the Blue Jays in 2008-2010.   

Wells doesn't seem to provide much of a middle ground anymore.  He's a very impatient hitter, who while he makes contact quite often with pitches he swings at, will suffer if his flyballs aren't going for home runs.  Reasonably, Wells would be projected for about .270/.330/.450, and an OPS+ around 100, but his career arc over the past 5 years doesn't seem to make that a realistic possibility.  The only seasons that Wells has even neared a WAR rating that made a $20+ million salary seem slightly worthwhile were his career year in 2006 (5.7 WAR which equated  to about a worth of $21.3 million), and last season (4.0 WAR, worth about $15.9 million).  Wells basically needs to hit about 30 HRs, hit .300, and OPS about .850 with strong defense in CF to even make his contract worthwhile, which just isn't a reality for him anymore.  If the Angels had gotten the Blue Jays to even pay a quarter of the 86 million remaining over 4 years, they would have only had to pay Wells 16.125 mil per year, and the amount they would pay Wells could fall more in line with what his production merits.  It's still highly doubtful that the trade would end up being worth it however. 

The Angels lose two of their middle-of-the-order hitters in C Mike Napoli (who has been a more valuable hitter than Wells over the past three years easily), and DH/OF Juan Rivera.  Now the Angels turn to prized prospect C Hank Conger to anchor their staff and hopefully provide some pop behind the plate similarly to Mike Napoli's production, or else their lineup will suffer with Jeff Mathis' poor bat behind the plate.  They may expect Mike Trout, another prized prospect who is in the outfield, to play at the MLB level as well, in replacement of Rivera, but only time will tell if that takes place. 

Grade: D

The Angels didn't sign a big name free agent, which is what they came into this offseason with the mindset of doing.  Leading up to free agency, the Angels were reportedly interested in both Adrian Beltre AND Carl Crawford and it was all but assumed they would get at least one of the two.  While I think it's probably a good thing they didn't sign either of the big names,  Instead of signing a big-name free agent however, they took on one of the worst contracts in baseball in Vernon Wells who will have to move to a corner OF spot, further decreasing his value to the team.  The Angels completely panicked and made this move for the sake of change, and lost one of their most valuable hitters in Mike Napoli as a result.

While I like the Downs and Takahashi signings, this Vernon Wells trade has literally no rhyme or reason behind it.   If not for the Angels signing the two relievers, they would receive an F for the offseason, because the Vernon Wells trade is one of the more questionable trades in recent MLB history.

Free Agency Recap: Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox:

Good Decisions:

Trading for Adrian Gonzalez:  Early in the offseason, the Red Sox made a huge splash and did what many expected them to do, finally acquiring Adrian Gonzalez in a trade with the Padres.  In order to get him, they traded three of their top prospects in 1B Anthony Rizzo, CF Reymond Fuentes, and SP Casey Kelly.  The Padres got a good haul considering that they wouldn't have been able to resign Gonzalez, but in the end, the Red Sox got a perennial All Star they will soon have locked in at first base for at least a few more years once they sign him to an extension.

Gonzalez is a proven run-producer and power hitter, driving in 99 or more runs in the past four seasons, and hitting 30+ HRs each season (40 in 2009), as well as posting a SLG% over .500 each season.  Additionally, Gonzalez is durable, never missing more than 2 games in any of those years.  Adrian also is a patient hiter, Slotting him into the Red Sox lineup between hitters like Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis is going to give him more protection than he's ever dreamed of, and he should see more pitches to hit  Adrian Gonzalez was intentionally walked 35 times last season, second only to Albert Pujols who was intentionally walked 38 times. 

Gonzalez is one of the premier first basemen in baseball, and posted impressive stats in the infamous "pitcher's park" in MLB, Petco Field.  The lefty has power to all fields, and like Crawford, could see a great benefit from moving to hitter's haven Fenway Park.  Gonzalez is well known as one of the best opposite field hitters in baseball, the second best in MLB behind Ryan Howard in 2010 according to thehardballtimes.com

As firebrandal.com explained and showed, Gonzalez is going to see a good deal more batted balls result in hits than he did at Petco Park:

"Both San Diego and their opponents hit around .230 as team at Petco Park. Neither side exceeded a .350 Slg and both sides’ pitching staffs had extraordinary success compared to the average park. It isn’t just a pitcher-friendly park, but it’s heavily slanted and borderline absurd.

...The key with Gonzalez and Fenway Park is to think in terms of doubles. Both parks are known for suppressing home run totals, but Fenway Park is ranked #2 in baseball park effects for doubles. The only place more conducive to doubles (home and away teams) is Colorado.

Petco Park is ranked dead last at #30. With that, I think we can expect Gonzalez push 50 doubles in 2011, not necessarily home runs.

...It’s not an exact science, but by my count, Gonzalez had about 12 balls that were outs down the left field line in San Diego. Those are all off the Wall or out onto Lansdowne Street in Boston. There are also three flyballs that would be in the RF bullpen at Fenway, but were caught at Petco.

Gonzalez will see more success in 2010 as a hitter, and the hitters around him (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youkilis, Crawford) will see more pitches to hit, now that Gonzalez is the most feared entity in their lineup.  Expect Gonzalez to hit at least .310/.400/.540 with 35 home runs, 110 RBI, about 50 doubles, and receive some MVP votes in 2011 and going forward through the first half of his all-but-ensured extension.

Letting Adrian Beltre leave in Free Agency:

Nobody can debate that Adrian Beltre was phenomenal last season for the Red Sox, but it's very easy to dispute that he deserved the 6 years and $96 million he received from the Texas Rangers this month in free agency.  Scott Boras again turned a career year for Beltre into a massive multi-year deal that will end up hindering the team financially in its last two years at least. 

The Rangers didn't want to leave FA without getting something, since they missed out on Cliff Lee, so they overpaid for Adrian Beltre, to prevent the Athletics and Angels from signing the star 3rd baseman.  Beltre had a masterful season, playing Gold Glove defense at 3B (as he always has), and hitting

Bobby Jenks (2 years, $12 million):  The White Sox chose to let Bobby Jenks walk this year in free agency, and the Red Sox pounced.  

As far as peripherals go, Bobby Jenks had the best season of his career.  Even while posting the highest walk rate of his career (3.08 walks per nine innings or BB/9), Jenks posted an extremely low HR/9 rate of 0.51 (3 HRs over 52 innings),  and striking out more than 1 batter an inning (10.42 K/9). 

His downfall was his .368 BABIP against.  Jenks allowed a very high LD% of 20.8%, contributing to it, but Jenks' BABIP hasn't been as high since his rookie or sophomore seasons of 2005 and 2006.  However, Bobby Jenks' Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was 2.91 in 2010, the best of his career.  FIP does exactly what it says, by only taking into account how many home runs, walks, and strikeouts a pitcher surrenders and converting it into an ERA that the pitcher "should" have had given an average defense behind him.

Jenks may end up taking over the closer role from the troubled Jonathan Papelbon, and may not provide much better results than Papelbon's 3.90 ERA, but regardless will help solidify a Boston bullpen that had the 24th ERA in baseball as a whole in 2010.

Carl Crawford (7 years, $142 million): Crawford was the most heralded free agent this offseason, but no one in their wildest imagination could have thought that he would get $142 million over seven years.  Crawford will be a useful player for the Red Sox in the early portion of his contract, there's no doubting that. 

The short porch in right field could very well help his power numbers go up, and he should end up with a career high in RBIs this season.  Crawford and Ellsbury or Crawford and Pedroia at the top of the lineup will create chaos for pitchers, and they really don't have any holes in their lineup, besides at catcher and maybe shortstop.  Look for Crawford to hit about 20 HRs again, drive in 90 to 100 runs, score 110+ runs, steal at least 40 bases and post a .310/.370/.500 slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG).   

Bad Decisions:

The only decision the Red Sox made that may hurt them was to let Victor Martinez hit free agency.  He's pretty bad defensively and at throwing out runners, but he's one of the few elite hitting catchers in MLB today.  Keeping in mind that he was replaced in the lineup by Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez's bats however, I think the Red Sox should be more than okay with dealing with his loss.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, he of the massive hype as the former future at catcher for both the Braves and Rangers, will now take over the Red Sox catcher job, backed up by Jason Varitek.  While the Red Sox don't want to lose production at catcher, they can afford it as long as Saltalamacchia can call a good game behind the plate and play decent defense.

Best Bargain (Contract under $5 million per year):

RP Dan Wheeler (1 year, $3 million):  The Red Sox not only made a great signing here, but also weakened their rival's (the Tampa Bay Rays, Wheeler's former team) bullpen the Tampa Bay Rays at the same time.  Over the past three seasons, Wheeler has made 60+ appearances each year while pitching to an ERA below 3.5.  Wheeler does allow a good amount of home runs, about one every six innings, which is concerning, but despite that, Wheeler's a strike thrower who limits walks and hits, and after adding a cutter to his pitching repertoire last year, improved his strikeout rate and ground ball rate greatly.  The cutter largely replaced his slider, which he threw for only 7% of his pitches last season compared to 27% in 2009.  Last year, his flyball percentage dropped to 45%, while his line drive and ground ball rates went up, to 20% and 35% respectively.  

Wheeler's a great 7th inning guy, which is about the role he'll fill for the Red Sox.  If he logs about 50 innings, with around the same ERA, the Red Sox will be more than happy with the signing, and may give him an extension.  If he fails, the Red Sox bullpen is now deep enough to accomodate for that and he isn't too costly.

Grade: A

While Crawford's contract and the likely massive contract that Adrian Gonzalez should receive are huge amounts of money, considering that it's the Red Sox we're talking about here, it's hard to fault them for throwing so much money at two players.  When a team can afford a $163 million payroll, most contracts don't look as bad when they hand them out.  There's no doubt that Crawford and Gonzalez's major paydays will not be justified by the end of their contracts, but both players are elite talents right now, and should each provide solid production for at least 4+ years.  The Red Sox also added plenty of depth to their bullpen, signing Wheeler, Jenks, and re-signing Hideki Okajima. The Red Sox improved their team drastically this year, and probably should be looked at as the favorites to win the AL East, much less the American League's berth in the World Series.

Explaining Baseball Statistics: BABIP

In these segments, I'll explain what the statistics really mean, so that when baseball season comes around, readers can understand the statistics I'm using and what I'm trying to communicate with them.

BABIP: (Batting Average on Balls In Play)

BABIP is literally as simple as it sounds.  It's a player's batting average only calculated from at bats where the ball was put in play on the field.  The formula for BABIP is:

Home Runs are exempt from the formula, as they're technically out of play.  Strikeouts obviously are not taken into account, as the ball is not put into play.  If a player hits a sacrifice fly in an at bat(SF), on the box score, the player is technically 0-0 for that at bat.  It still counts as an at bat but it doesn't affect the batting average, so it's also subtracted.  As those three results aren't taken into account, every other possible result at the plate for a hitter is determined by the defense.  BABIP really in essence shows how often a player is getting on base when they make contact, and if they're doing so more or less often than is normal.  A player's BABIP will likely be higher when playing against a poor defense, and will likely go down if playing against MLB's best defense as a result. 

League average BABIP for hitters and against pitchers is generally about .300, and fell to .297 last year, as pitchers performed better across the league.  Generally, players who have a BABIP of .280 or lower are considered to be "unlucky", while players with a BABIP higher than about .315 or .320 are considered "lucky".  Pitchers with a .280 BABIP against, conversely, are generally considered "lucky", and "unlucky" if it hovers above .315 or so.

Over the past few years, The Tigers have had some pretty drastic examples of overachieving players where BABIP can be pointed to as the primary reason for/indicator of their successes; the primary examples being Austin Jackson in 2010 and Armando Galarraga in 2008.
Last season, Austin Jackson had a tremendous rookie season, playing near Gold Glove caliber defense in CF, and hitting .300 for nearly the whole season, while leading all rookies in hits.  However, his astronomically high .396 BABIP shows us that he's not going to be repeating that feat.  He easily had the highest BABIP in MLB, and there are a few factors to point to that explain this.  First off, he is a speedy hitter, and is able to run out a lot of ground balls and bunts for singles, a la Carl Crawford.  Combined in 2010, 25 of Jackson's 181 hits were infield hits, the fourth highest in baseball, and one of the highest ratios.  (If you're curious, Ichiro led in infield hits).  For this reason alone, his BABIP will likely always be above .300, and probably hover around at least .330 or .340, but not at the unreal level of .396.  So what gives?  The other proponent of Jackson's high BABIP was his astronomical rate of hitting line drives.  According to The Hardball Times (thehardballtimes.com):

"Line drives are not necessarily the hardest hit balls, but they do fall for a hit around 75% of the time."

Given the fact that MLB hitters hit .750 on average when hitting line drives, it makes sense that their average would rise astronomically if they hit a high amount of line drives, which Jackson did.  Jackson had the third highest LD% in baseball at 24%, right behind Joe Mauer, former AL batting champ.  He also hit only 48% of balls for ground balls, which is easily the lowest among the leaders in infield hits.  He also hit a low amount of fly balls, 28% over the course of the year.  This means that Austin maximized his probability of getting hits to about the highest level any player in MLB possibly could, and did it while hitting only four home runs. 

To a speedy player with little power like Austin Jackson, flyballs are his worst enemy.  His speed can't combat a popout like it can a groundout or line drive.  He has a chance to run out either of those at bats and when 72% of his at bats are one of those scenarios, it's going to benefit him.  Jackson has always had a high BABIP throughout his minor league career, but never consistently to this level, and it was against minor league talent, which ultimately is a level below MLB to say the least.  I would expect Jackson's BABIP to remain high, but his batting average this year to drop, to around .270 or .280.

Another example was Armando Galarraga in 2008.  The pitcher had a wonderful season, pitching to a 3.73 ERA and going 13-7 on the season.  Many people thought that Galarraga would continue posting similar seasons, but as I explained in a previous blog post a couple years back, he was a prime candidate to regress:

Armando Galaragga is the lone pitching bright spot of last year, who benefitted from an abnormally low BABIP. His .250 BABIP against was the third lowest of any MLB starter which is a damning statistic. Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) takes strikeouts and walks out of the equation and calculates batting average solely from contact in at-bats for a hitter or against a pitcher. League average for BABIP against is .301. He is not an overpowering pitcher, throwing 90-92, and never had MLB success prior to last year. His strikeout and walk rates are completely average, and he left over 75% of his runners on base, when the league average is 70%. Even more alarming is that this .250 BABIP came with the defense of Carlos Guillen, Edgar Renteria, and Miguel Cabrera behind him. Galaragga still somehow managed to have one of the biggest fluke years in MLB last year with one of the poorer infield defensive groupings in the league behind him. I'd look for his ERA to skyrocket to around 4.25-4.5 this year, and he will be a far less effective pitcher.

As you can see, Galarraga had a lot of warning signs in 2008 to go along with his great season.  He forced a career high level of ground balls, and somehow his slider was the best of any pitcher's that year according to statistics on Fangraphs.com.  He hasn't ever returned to any of those rates, and since he isn't that overpowering pitcher who helps himself out with strikeouts, and actually pitches to contact, he fell back to a 5.64 ERA in '09, had a 4.49 ERA in '10, and looks to be out of the rotation altogether in 2011 now that Brad Penny has been signed.

However, BABIP isn't a solution all in itself to explain a player's down year or career season.

Let's take a look at Miguel Cabrera for example.  His career BA and BABIP are set side-by-side in this chart.

As you can see, Miguel Cabrera has never had a BABIP of .300 or below, which given the above information could lead you to believe he's "lucky" at the plate.  However, his consistency demonstrates otherwise.  Cabrera's BABIP actually is one of the 20 highest ever over a career.     

Cabrera will always have a high BABIP, mainly because he'll always hit for a high average.  The elite hitters will almost always have a higher one, and vice versa for poor hitters.

To sum it up, BABIP can be a very useful statistic to help explain a struggling/overachieving season by a hitter or pitcher.  It takes the defense behind a pitcher/against a hitter into account by ruling out all results where the defense doesn't factor in, which adds to the "luck" factor often associated with BABIP.  Blindly saying that a player's BABIP is high so he'll regress isn't always true, so it's not a be-all, end-all statistic.  However, it's a useful indicator of potential overachieving/underachieving as a whole.  It helps us as fans focus in on the usual culprits of abnormal BABIPs for hitters (Line Drive %, Ground Ball %, Infield Hits, etc.) and pitchers (Left on Base %, Line Drive %, Ground Ball %, poor defense behind the pitcher, etc.), and better explain a non-elite player's career year, whether good or bad.