Signing Scott Downs (3 years, $15 million):
The Blue Jays made a big mistake letting Scott Downs hit the free agent market, and the Angels have reaped the benefits. Scott Downs has quietly been one of the best and most consistent relievers in baseball over the past four seasons.
He's posted ERAs of 2.17 (3.24 FIP), 1.78 (3.39 FIP), 3.09 (3.33 FIP), and 2.64 (3.03 FIP) over the past four years. It's extremely difficult to post FIPs as low as Downs' ERA has been, so don't think that he's merely an overachiever due to the difference. Downs posts insanely high ground ball rates year-in and year-out, ranging from 55.7% to 65.6% over the past four years. As that would lead you to expect, Downs rarely gives up home runs, surrendering only 13 total over the past four seasons. Downs pitches to contact, largely utilizing his fastball, last season almost 76% of the time. The fastball is complemented by two other "plus" (in other words, above-average) pitches in his slider and curveball. As a lefty, Downs has dominated left-handed batters, and hasn't allowed righties to hit over .250 against him over the past few seasons, so he's still even kept righties in line.
Downs hasn't ever had a long-term closing role, but he's probably in line to win the job on the Angels' pitching staff. He's a contact pitcher, but seeing as he's a ground-ball pitcher, he should fare fine if thrust into the closer role. The only other real option is Fernando Rodney, who as you may remember from his time as a Tiger, has electric stuff but is inconsistent to put it lightly.
Downs was a fantastic signing, and may actually be the best reliever signing of the entire offseason. While the Angels did surrender a second round pick as compensation for signing the Type A free agent (their first round pick was protected), Downs should produce about 1+ WAR per season, making the signing a solid one, and one likely to recoup value equal to what Downs is paid.
Signing Hisanori Takahashi (2 years, $8 million):
Takahashi was a nice pickup, although he only has one year of experience, his 122 innings were solid overall. Coming overseas last season to pitch for the Mets, Takahashi pitched in 53 games, 12 of them as a starter, pitching to a 3.61 ERA and 3.65 FIP. fangraphs.com pointed out that he performed even more admirably in his "rookie season" as a reliever:
Also, Takahashi’s numbers were much better in relief. In 57.1 relief innings, he had a 9.42 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 2.59 FIP and 3.54 xFIP.He has five pitches at his arsenal, but mostly operates with his fastball, slider, and changeup. Batters seemed to sit on his fastball, since it was a below average pitch overall, but his slider was above average and his changeup was phenomenal. Overall, Takahashi had above average control, only walking 2.61 per nine innings and allowed just about one HR every nine innings.
Takahashi amassed 1.6 WAR over the season, and should provide about 1 WAR per season should he be utilized only as a reliever, which is expected given that the Angels' rotation is seemingly already set. If Takahashi is inserted into the starting rotation, he may have a better chance to give the Angels a positive return on their investment, but regardless, his signing will benefit the Angels' back end of the bullpen.
Not Signing Adrian Beltre or Carl Crawford:
For the prices Beltre and Crawford were being paid, the Angels simply couldn't afford to sign them to such bloated salaries. The Angels operate at a lower financial level than the Red Sox and at a similar one to the Rangers. We'll probably see the Rangers struggling financially due to Beltre's bloated salary in a few years, similarly to how Michael Young's $16 million salary is weighing down their short-term options currently, preventing them from re-signing Vladimir Guerrero, since they have to play Michael Young somewhere (DH this year which was Guerrero's spot last season) to justify his massive pay.
The Angels didn't come away with one of the big-name FAs, but for their financial sake, it's probably a good thing they didn't.
Bad Decisions:
Trading Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera for Vernon Wells
The Angels put themselves in competition with the Washington Nationals and Texas Rangers for most desperate acquisition this offseason. The Angels missed out on Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre (for good reason, both were overpriced as could be), and refused to end this offseason without making a "big move". So their idea of a big move was taking on one of the worst contracts in baseball by acquiring Vernon Wells and his 4 years and $86 million left on his contract.
Wells in 2007 and 2009 was a horrific underachiever, while he posted solid numbers in 2008 and 2010. Even his good seasons left something to be desired however. In both '07 and '09, Wells posted extremely low HR/FB rates (home runs hit/fly balls hit), half as low as the 14% rates in his '08 and '10 seasons.
Below are his statistics from 2003-2010:
| Year | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | .317 | .272 | .359 | .339 | .550 | .436 | .909 | .775 | 132 |
| 2004 | .272 | .275 | .337 | .344 | .472 | .442 | .809 | .786 | 105 |
| 2005 | .269 | .270 | .320 | .334 | .463 | .429 | .783 | .762 | 104 |
| 2006 | .303 | .275 | .357 | .340 | .542 | .438 | .899 | .778 | 129 |
| 2007 | .245 | .271 | .304 | .338 | .402 | .424 | .706 | .762 | 85 |
| 2008 | .300 | .266 | .343 | .333 | .496 | .417 | .840 | .751 | 122 |
| 2009 | .260 | .267 | .311 | .336 | .400 | .429 | .711 | .765 | 86 |
| 2010 | .273 | .260 | .331 | .328 | .515 | .408 | .847 | .736 | 127 |
As you can see, this table puts Vernon Wells' yearly BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS up against what a league average hitter would have done. In 2007 and 2009, we can see that Wells underacehived in BA, and to a much further extent in OBP, falling 34 points and 25 points below the league OBP respectively in those years. Even his slugging percentages fell more than 20 points below the league adjusted SLG%.
His defense has also fallen off the past three years, as he's posted negative defensive ratings by almost every notable defensive statistic across the board in CF for the Blue Jays in 2008-2010.
Wells doesn't seem to provide much of a middle ground anymore. He's a very impatient hitter, who while he makes contact quite often with pitches he swings at, will suffer if his flyballs aren't going for home runs. Reasonably, Wells would be projected for about .270/.330/.450, and an OPS+ around 100, but his career arc over the past 5 years doesn't seem to make that a realistic possibility. The only seasons that Wells has even neared a WAR rating that made a $20+ million salary seem slightly worthwhile were his career year in 2006 (5.7 WAR which equated to about a worth of $21.3 million), and last season (4.0 WAR, worth about $15.9 million). Wells basically needs to hit about 30 HRs, hit .300, and OPS about .850 with strong defense in CF to even make his contract worthwhile, which just isn't a reality for him anymore. If the Angels had gotten the Blue Jays to even pay a quarter of the 86 million remaining over 4 years, they would have only had to pay Wells 16.125 mil per year, and the amount they would pay Wells could fall more in line with what his production merits. It's still highly doubtful that the trade would end up being worth it however.
The Angels lose two of their middle-of-the-order hitters in C Mike Napoli (who has been a more valuable hitter than Wells over the past three years easily), and DH/OF Juan Rivera. Now the Angels turn to prized prospect C Hank Conger to anchor their staff and hopefully provide some pop behind the plate similarly to Mike Napoli's production, or else their lineup will suffer with Jeff Mathis' poor bat behind the plate. They may expect Mike Trout, another prized prospect who is in the outfield, to play at the MLB level as well, in replacement of Rivera, but only time will tell if that takes place.
Grade: D
The Angels didn't sign a big name free agent, which is what they came into this offseason with the mindset of doing. Leading up to free agency, the Angels were reportedly interested in both Adrian Beltre AND Carl Crawford and it was all but assumed they would get at least one of the two. While I think it's probably a good thing they didn't sign either of the big names, Instead of signing a big-name free agent however, they took on one of the worst contracts in baseball in Vernon Wells who will have to move to a corner OF spot, further decreasing his value to the team. The Angels completely panicked and made this move for the sake of change, and lost one of their most valuable hitters in Mike Napoli as a result.
While I like the Downs and Takahashi signings, this Vernon Wells trade has literally no rhyme or reason behind it. If not for the Angels signing the two relievers, they would receive an F for the offseason, because the Vernon Wells trade is one of the more questionable trades in recent MLB history.
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