Today's Opening Day! Everyone's ready for the season and publicizing their predictions, and I'm no different today. I'll give a few storylines for each division to help explain what major stories to watch on each team this year. Along with my predicted order of standings in each division and predicted playoff results, I'll also include MVP, Cy Young, ROY and Comeback Player of the Year candidates in each division.
First up the AL East after the jump:
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Detroit Tigers 2011 Preview: Second Base
Entering 2011, no one knows who will open the season at 2nd base for the Detroit Tigers. After letting Placido Polanco leave to Philadelphia in 2010, Detroit has no option that jumps out as reliable or above-average at the position. This spring, an open competition is being held at the position, and the winner will likely dominate time at the position while also hitting 2nd in the lineup, which is one of the most important roles. Could it be Carlos Guillen? That requires that he be healthy which he may be to open the season.... for about 2 weeks. What about Will Rhymes? Sure, he played well last year, but can he be expected to hit .300 again and fill the #2 spot in the lineup similarly to how Polanco did? Scott Sizemore entered 2010 as the starter, but while playing through an injury, suffered and was demoted to AAA. Danny Worth was also one of the random players the Tigers picked out of the minors to fill the middle infield gap, and was a respectable replacement, but is he a feasible option for a full season?
The obvious answer is that NONE of these options are "reliable", and ALL of them will see playing time at 2B and in Danny Worth's case, some time at SS. But I'll handicap the competition at the position in this post to explain what we can reasonably expect each player to provide while on the field.
Possible Opening Day starter: Will Rhymes
Carlos Guillen has Leyland's support, but given that Carlos has yet to participate in a game, and there's no set timeline for his return, Will Rhymes based off his performance in limited time last year likely has the lead in the clubhouse at second base. In 191 AB (214 PA) last year, Will posted a very respectable line at second:
.304/.350/.414(.764 OPS), 1 HR, 19 RBI, 30 R, 0 SB, 19 K
The combination of a .300 average and Rhymes' extrapolated total of about 60 strikeouts over a 600 AB season suggests that Rhymes is the best candidate to fill Polanco's old role at second base. Both had little power at the plate, but perform well when asked to play small ball, for example, advancing a runner from 2nd to 3rd by hitting a ball to the right side of the infield.
Rhymes' spray chart was remarkably balanced as we'll see below:
He hit 62 balls to the left side of the field (.411 BA), 60 balls up the middle (.283 BA) and 61 balls to the right side of the field (.305 BA), which suggests that he has enough bat control to hit the ball where the situation dictates that he should. The left-hander is a slap-hitter that hits to all fields (hitting the best to the opposite field), but at the same point, Rhymes isn't going to hit many sacrifice flies or total many extra base hits, as only a couple of his hits at Comerica traveled more than 300 feet. Power will never be Will Rhymes' game, but he can still be a very useful player should he perform similarly to last season. I expect a slight regression from Rhymes this year, but not too much. He should still showcase solid bat control in the 2 hole of the lineup and be a useful hitter in a Polanco-esque role.
For the sake of comparison, Polanco hit .285/.331/.396, 10 HR, 72 RBI, 82 R, 7 SB, 46 K in his final season with Detroit (618 ABs). We can expect similar triple slash numbers from Rhymes this year, but more strikeouts, and less power and run production. To suggest he's the next Placido Polanco is ridiculous because Polanco offered a unique package of elite contact-hitting as well as decent ability to hit for power and solid fielding.
One advantage he does hold is his speed on the basepaths. While he only attempted 3 steals last season and was caught every time, he stole 20 or more bases in four of his five minor league seasons, and hopefully that speed on the basepaths translates to MLB this year. In the field Rhymes obviously has more range than Carlos Guillen (who doesn't), but doesn't have elite range at the position, similarly to Polanco.
I expect Rhymes to get the most at bats of any option on this list over the course of the season, even if he doesn't open as the starter on Opening Day. Scott Sizemore may end up the Opening Day starter, but if he struggles again, Rhymes will be thrust into the every day second base spot.
Projection given that Rhymes is main starter: 400 ABs, .285/.340/.380, 3 HR, 33 RBI, 65 R, 13 SB
Leyland's favorite option: Carlos Guillen
As Tigers fans know, Jim Leyland plays favorites quite a bit, whether they're as awful with the bat as Adam Everett or Neifi Perez, or as awful in the field as Carlos Guillen. Guillen's range has deteriorated exponentially over the past few seasons as injuries continue to derail his career. He no longer has the range to play shortstop so he's been moved all over the field, from the outfield to first base to his current position of second base. Next to Jhonny Peralta unfortunately, Carlos Guillen would help form the worst fielding 2B-SS combo in MLB, which as you would expect is going to be harmful to the Tigers who already have a poor outfield defense (aside from Austin Jackson). The infield also has a slow and overweight first baseman that can't cover a ton of ground (although he's an above-average fielding first baseman regardless), and an aging Brandon Inge who still possesses great instincts at third but simply doesn't have the range he used to as his knee problems worsen. Guillen isn't going to remedy the poor defense, but that's obviously not why he's getting play at second base.
While more second basemen are starting to hit for power than ever, Guillen's bat at the position is still useful should he remain healthy. While Guillen won't be returning to his heyday from '04-'07 when we could reasonably expect 20 HRs and 90-100 RBI on a yearly basis along with an .800+ OPS, he still has 15 HR power and still possesses decent run-producing potential as well as the ability to drive the ball to all fields. Last year Guillen hit .273/.327/.419, which means he got on base less than Rhymes, but also drove more runs in. Carlos will likely hit 2nd if he starts at 2B, but his bat simply isn't as useful there as it would be hitting 6th or 7th. Guillen's ability to switch-hit can prove useful later in games, but as a right-handed hitter over the past couple seasons, his hitting has fallen off sharply, leading to a .234 average while hitting against lefty pitchers last season, which means, that his bat is only useful as a lefty, which Rhymes also is. Again, the main difference is the power advantage that Guillen has over Rhymes, but is the power hitting really more useful than Rhymes' advantages in contact hitting, fielding, and speed on the basepaths? Given the Tigers' lineup and its spread out power hitting (Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Ryan Raburn, Brandon Inge, and Alex Avila can all be expected to hit 15+ HRs over a full season of work), Guillen's power hitting (which is markedly less impressive than in years past) simply isn't as advantageous for the 2011 version of the Detroit Tigers.
In the end will this matter? Probably not, because as explained earlier, Leyland sticks with his favorite players through and through. In all honesty, Carlos Guillen profiles as a completely average 2B with the loss of power and lack of fielding range, but he has the trust of Jim Leyland as he's been here since Leyland's first year with the team. Additionally, Carlos Guillen's $13 million contract for this season makes it tough to justify not playing him on a regular basis. The Tigers did release Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis last year even though they were owed a combined $23 million, so it's not unprecedented should Guillen be released mid-season, but given that Carlos is still a fairly useful hitter, he'll be on the team this year. He will be gone though after this season as the Tigers will likely commit to Will Rhymes or Scott Sizemore at the position. Guillen likely will get 200-250 ABs at 2B as he has the past couple years, but will fail to remain healthy, as is his trademark.
Projection given Guillen is starter for 400 ABs: .280/.350/.410, 12 HR, 50 RBI, 70 R, 75 K
Scott Sizemore:
Scott Sizemore has the most potential of any 2nd baseman in the Tigers' system, but he also struggled greatly last year in adjusting to major league hitting. Sizemore offers the best talent package of any middle infielder the Tigers have at any level, with the ability to hit for above-average power, draw walks, hit for contact, and be a dependable fielder at second base. While he possesses the potential, will it translate to MLB?
Sizemore's on-base percentage was consistently around .370 and .380 in the minor leagues, which is quite impressive for a young hitter, and very useful at the top of a lineup. In AAA, Scott posted an average over .300, an OBP of .378 and a SLG of .472 over the course of two seasons. His walk rate decreased upon his promotion to AAA, but was still very respectable, drawing walks in about 9% of plate appearances (this translates to about 55-60 walks per 600 ABs.) While he maintained that walk rate in MLB, his strikeout rate increased sharply to 28% of his at-bats. 22% of his batted balls were line drives, which is a great number, but his groundball and flyball rates were both nearly identical (37.9 and 39.8%). Additionally, 17% of his fly balls were infield fly balls. Over a full season, that 17% would definitely have decreased but the fact is, a good amount of Sizemore's batted balls never left the infield.
Last year, Sizemore also suffered with making contact. On pitches outside the zone, Sizemore made contact with only 60.7% (66.5% MLB Avg.), and made contact with 85.6% of pitches he swung at in the strike zone (88.1% MLB Avg.) When it comes down to it, Sizemore should improve these rates over time as he gains experience, but he's a patient hitter that takes a lot of pitches and will never swing more than an average MLB hitter. That's not necessarily a negative as he walks more than the average MLB hitter as well. As long as Sizemore can increase his average to .260 or .270 and have an OBP hovering above or around .350, he'll be a very useful part of the bottom of the Tigers lineup.
I expect Sizemore to start the season at second base, but to quickly relinquish the job to Carlos Guillen once he's healthy.
Projection assuming 400 ABs: .250/.330/.400, 9 HR, 45 RBI, 60 R, 10 SB
Other options:
Other options at the position will include utility infielders like Danny Worth and Don Kelly. Both will likely see some MLB time this season at the positions, probably mostly as defensive replacements. As far as minor league players are concerned, two names to watch are Corey Jones and Brandon Douglas, the 13th and 15th best prospects respectively in the Detroit Tigers minor leagues according to the Detroit News' annual report. Douglas is 25 and should see time in AAA this season which he earned after a solid season last year, and Corey Jones should move up to AA ball this season in Erie at age 23. The Tigers have a bunch of mediocrity at the position, but in the end, they'll work it out and hopefully can manage the position well. Personally, I'd want Will Rhymes starting if I were Jim Leyland, but I have a feeling Rhymes is going to be the man left out of the situation behind Sizemore and Guillen.
The obvious answer is that NONE of these options are "reliable", and ALL of them will see playing time at 2B and in Danny Worth's case, some time at SS. But I'll handicap the competition at the position in this post to explain what we can reasonably expect each player to provide while on the field.
Possible Opening Day starter: Will Rhymes
Carlos Guillen has Leyland's support, but given that Carlos has yet to participate in a game, and there's no set timeline for his return, Will Rhymes based off his performance in limited time last year likely has the lead in the clubhouse at second base. In 191 AB (214 PA) last year, Will posted a very respectable line at second:
.304/.350/.414(.764 OPS), 1 HR, 19 RBI, 30 R, 0 SB, 19 K
The combination of a .300 average and Rhymes' extrapolated total of about 60 strikeouts over a 600 AB season suggests that Rhymes is the best candidate to fill Polanco's old role at second base. Both had little power at the plate, but perform well when asked to play small ball, for example, advancing a runner from 2nd to 3rd by hitting a ball to the right side of the infield.
Rhymes' spray chart was remarkably balanced as we'll see below:
 |
| Spray chart courtesy of mlb.com. s = single, d = double h = home run |
He hit 62 balls to the left side of the field (.411 BA), 60 balls up the middle (.283 BA) and 61 balls to the right side of the field (.305 BA), which suggests that he has enough bat control to hit the ball where the situation dictates that he should. The left-hander is a slap-hitter that hits to all fields (hitting the best to the opposite field), but at the same point, Rhymes isn't going to hit many sacrifice flies or total many extra base hits, as only a couple of his hits at Comerica traveled more than 300 feet. Power will never be Will Rhymes' game, but he can still be a very useful player should he perform similarly to last season. I expect a slight regression from Rhymes this year, but not too much. He should still showcase solid bat control in the 2 hole of the lineup and be a useful hitter in a Polanco-esque role.
For the sake of comparison, Polanco hit .285/.331/.396, 10 HR, 72 RBI, 82 R, 7 SB, 46 K in his final season with Detroit (618 ABs). We can expect similar triple slash numbers from Rhymes this year, but more strikeouts, and less power and run production. To suggest he's the next Placido Polanco is ridiculous because Polanco offered a unique package of elite contact-hitting as well as decent ability to hit for power and solid fielding.
One advantage he does hold is his speed on the basepaths. While he only attempted 3 steals last season and was caught every time, he stole 20 or more bases in four of his five minor league seasons, and hopefully that speed on the basepaths translates to MLB this year. In the field Rhymes obviously has more range than Carlos Guillen (who doesn't), but doesn't have elite range at the position, similarly to Polanco.
I expect Rhymes to get the most at bats of any option on this list over the course of the season, even if he doesn't open as the starter on Opening Day. Scott Sizemore may end up the Opening Day starter, but if he struggles again, Rhymes will be thrust into the every day second base spot.
Projection given that Rhymes is main starter: 400 ABs, .285/.340/.380, 3 HR, 33 RBI, 65 R, 13 SB
Leyland's favorite option: Carlos Guillen
As Tigers fans know, Jim Leyland plays favorites quite a bit, whether they're as awful with the bat as Adam Everett or Neifi Perez, or as awful in the field as Carlos Guillen. Guillen's range has deteriorated exponentially over the past few seasons as injuries continue to derail his career. He no longer has the range to play shortstop so he's been moved all over the field, from the outfield to first base to his current position of second base. Next to Jhonny Peralta unfortunately, Carlos Guillen would help form the worst fielding 2B-SS combo in MLB, which as you would expect is going to be harmful to the Tigers who already have a poor outfield defense (aside from Austin Jackson). The infield also has a slow and overweight first baseman that can't cover a ton of ground (although he's an above-average fielding first baseman regardless), and an aging Brandon Inge who still possesses great instincts at third but simply doesn't have the range he used to as his knee problems worsen. Guillen isn't going to remedy the poor defense, but that's obviously not why he's getting play at second base.
While more second basemen are starting to hit for power than ever, Guillen's bat at the position is still useful should he remain healthy. While Guillen won't be returning to his heyday from '04-'07 when we could reasonably expect 20 HRs and 90-100 RBI on a yearly basis along with an .800+ OPS, he still has 15 HR power and still possesses decent run-producing potential as well as the ability to drive the ball to all fields. Last year Guillen hit .273/.327/.419, which means he got on base less than Rhymes, but also drove more runs in. Carlos will likely hit 2nd if he starts at 2B, but his bat simply isn't as useful there as it would be hitting 6th or 7th. Guillen's ability to switch-hit can prove useful later in games, but as a right-handed hitter over the past couple seasons, his hitting has fallen off sharply, leading to a .234 average while hitting against lefty pitchers last season, which means, that his bat is only useful as a lefty, which Rhymes also is. Again, the main difference is the power advantage that Guillen has over Rhymes, but is the power hitting really more useful than Rhymes' advantages in contact hitting, fielding, and speed on the basepaths? Given the Tigers' lineup and its spread out power hitting (Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Ryan Raburn, Brandon Inge, and Alex Avila can all be expected to hit 15+ HRs over a full season of work), Guillen's power hitting (which is markedly less impressive than in years past) simply isn't as advantageous for the 2011 version of the Detroit Tigers.
In the end will this matter? Probably not, because as explained earlier, Leyland sticks with his favorite players through and through. In all honesty, Carlos Guillen profiles as a completely average 2B with the loss of power and lack of fielding range, but he has the trust of Jim Leyland as he's been here since Leyland's first year with the team. Additionally, Carlos Guillen's $13 million contract for this season makes it tough to justify not playing him on a regular basis. The Tigers did release Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis last year even though they were owed a combined $23 million, so it's not unprecedented should Guillen be released mid-season, but given that Carlos is still a fairly useful hitter, he'll be on the team this year. He will be gone though after this season as the Tigers will likely commit to Will Rhymes or Scott Sizemore at the position. Guillen likely will get 200-250 ABs at 2B as he has the past couple years, but will fail to remain healthy, as is his trademark.
Projection given Guillen is starter for 400 ABs: .280/.350/.410, 12 HR, 50 RBI, 70 R, 75 K
Scott Sizemore:
Scott Sizemore has the most potential of any 2nd baseman in the Tigers' system, but he also struggled greatly last year in adjusting to major league hitting. Sizemore offers the best talent package of any middle infielder the Tigers have at any level, with the ability to hit for above-average power, draw walks, hit for contact, and be a dependable fielder at second base. While he possesses the potential, will it translate to MLB?
Sizemore's on-base percentage was consistently around .370 and .380 in the minor leagues, which is quite impressive for a young hitter, and very useful at the top of a lineup. In AAA, Scott posted an average over .300, an OBP of .378 and a SLG of .472 over the course of two seasons. His walk rate decreased upon his promotion to AAA, but was still very respectable, drawing walks in about 9% of plate appearances (this translates to about 55-60 walks per 600 ABs.) While he maintained that walk rate in MLB, his strikeout rate increased sharply to 28% of his at-bats. 22% of his batted balls were line drives, which is a great number, but his groundball and flyball rates were both nearly identical (37.9 and 39.8%). Additionally, 17% of his fly balls were infield fly balls. Over a full season, that 17% would definitely have decreased but the fact is, a good amount of Sizemore's batted balls never left the infield.
Last year, Sizemore also suffered with making contact. On pitches outside the zone, Sizemore made contact with only 60.7% (66.5% MLB Avg.), and made contact with 85.6% of pitches he swung at in the strike zone (88.1% MLB Avg.) When it comes down to it, Sizemore should improve these rates over time as he gains experience, but he's a patient hitter that takes a lot of pitches and will never swing more than an average MLB hitter. That's not necessarily a negative as he walks more than the average MLB hitter as well. As long as Sizemore can increase his average to .260 or .270 and have an OBP hovering above or around .350, he'll be a very useful part of the bottom of the Tigers lineup.
I expect Sizemore to start the season at second base, but to quickly relinquish the job to Carlos Guillen once he's healthy.
Projection assuming 400 ABs: .250/.330/.400, 9 HR, 45 RBI, 60 R, 10 SB
Other options:
Other options at the position will include utility infielders like Danny Worth and Don Kelly. Both will likely see some MLB time this season at the positions, probably mostly as defensive replacements. As far as minor league players are concerned, two names to watch are Corey Jones and Brandon Douglas, the 13th and 15th best prospects respectively in the Detroit Tigers minor leagues according to the Detroit News' annual report. Douglas is 25 and should see time in AAA this season which he earned after a solid season last year, and Corey Jones should move up to AA ball this season in Erie at age 23. The Tigers have a bunch of mediocrity at the position, but in the end, they'll work it out and hopefully can manage the position well. Personally, I'd want Will Rhymes starting if I were Jim Leyland, but I have a feeling Rhymes is going to be the man left out of the situation behind Sizemore and Guillen.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
2011 NCAA Tournament Picks
Time for what's probably the greatest 4-day span in sports, the NCAA tournament. This year looks to have a lot of parity, and there are probably 12-14 teams that could win it in the end. Regardless, I'm going to put my picks here to come back and embarrass me later.
East Region:
(1) Ohio St. over (16) University Texas - San Antonio: It's a 1/16 game, move along.
(9) Villanova over (8) George Mason - I'm going to put faith in Jay Wright to right the ship here, even if just for one game. Whoever wins this is getting slammed in the next round, but this should be a highly entertaining game with great guard play.
(5) West Virginia over (12) Clemson - The Tuesday night play-in game against UAB may sway a lot of people to pick Clemson today, don't let it. Clemson has experience at failing in big games for more than a decade and doesn't have even ONE win against a top-50 RPI team this season. It will be a close game as both teams play stifling defense, but I'm going to trust Bob Huggins here and the experienced group at West Virginia.
(4) Kentucky over (13) Princeton - This is going to get ugly.
(6) Xavier over (11) Marquette - Xavier is playing in Cleveland, so they'll have PLENTY of support. Marquette has good guard play, but so does Xavier with Tu Holloway who should be the best scorer on the floor. It will likely come down to the interior, which always seems to be Marquette's weakness. Kenny Frease and David McLean give Xavier a huge advantage down low that will be the undoing of Marquette.
(3) Syracuse over (14) Indiana St. - Gonna be a laugher.
(7) Washington over (10) Georgia - This game could be fun. Athletes all over the court, and lots of offense to go with it. Isiah Thomas is a stud at pointguard, and seemingly the whole team can shoot 3's which will spread the floor. Georgia has a dynamic guard in Travis Leslie who can jump out of the building, and Trey Thompkins in the post who could dominate down there. I think Matthew Bryan-Amaning will perform admirably on the interior against Thompkins and will help Washington pull off the win.
(2) North Carolina over (15) Long Island - Another laugher, move along folks.
(1) Ohio St. over (9) Villanova - Should be easy for the Bucks here.
(4) Kentucky over (5) West Virginia - This game gives me pause, as this is the team that was the undoing of Kentucky last year. Kentucky just outclasses WVU this year though, while Kentucky lost more talent to the NBA last year, they also still have way more than WVU and Calipari's teams all play good defense which should help negate WVU's advantage there.
(6) Xavier over (3) Syracuse - Upset Alert! Playing in Cleveland again, big advantage for Xavier here. Syracuse is a tough team, but Kenny Frease should play well, even against Rick Jackson, and Tu Holloway is the best guard on the floor. This is a dangerous pick, as Xavier doesn't shoot the 3 well. However, they do get to the free throw line and convert efficiently, so they can pull this off.
(7) Washington over (2) UNC - Bigger upset alert! Washington doesn't have the advantage here, playing in Charlotte, but they do have better guard play. My hunch is that they force Marshall into a high amount of turnovers, and Justin Holiday can play admirable defense against Harrison Barnes. The post game could present problems for Washington as Zeller and Henson are strong down low, but I'm going to roll with the more senior team here in Washington. I can definitely see this game blowing up in my face, UNC is crazy talented, but March is crazy, and this is going to be one of the more surprising Sweet 16 runs this year in my opinion.
(1) Ohio St. over (4) Kentucky - Kentucky folds on the big stage and Josh Harrelson can't find a way to stop Jared Sullinger. If they double team Sullinger, Diebler and William Buford will go nuts from the 3-point line. Ohio State really presents a diverse offensive group that is tough for anyone to match up with.
(7) Washington over (6) Xavier - Isiah Thomas continues to lift his team up, and leads them to a magical Elite Eight run, continuing momentum from the Pac-10 tournament. Can they beat Ohio State though?
(1) Ohio St. over (7) Washington - Nope. They can't. Ohio State's too much for Washington here and ends the magical run of this band of Huskies.
West Region:
(1) Duke over (16) Hampton - 30+ point victory
(8) Michigan over (9) Tennessee - Michigan's getting no credit for their end-season run, and they'll take offense to it, showing up here with an improved Tim Hardaway Jr. and one of the top pointguards in the nation who'll put his name on the map. Tennessee outsizes Michigan, but I'm gonna go with a hunch here and count on the Wolverines to show up big for one more game.
(5) Arizona over (12) Memphis - This isn't your regular Memphis, they're not going to make noise in this tournament, in a couple years though look out, as four of their five starters this season are freshmen. Look for Derrick Williams to blow up in this game.
(4) Texas over (13) Oakland - Oakland got screwed as the best 13 seed playing the best 4 seed. Oakland could beat a team like Wisconsin or an overseeded four, but not Texas. Texas was the best defensive team in the country over the second half of the season, and should outclass Oakland here, who plays about as much defense as the Golden State Warriors.
(11) Missouri over (6) Cincinnati - Upset here, I don't like Cincinnati that much this year, and while Missouri doesn't still play their "40 Minutes of Hell" press, they play fantastic defense and Marcus Denmon should play well in this game and lead Mizzou to an upset.
(3) Connecticut over (14) Bucknell - Not buying an upset here.
(7) Temple over (10) Penn State - This should be a great defensive matchup, and the first team to 60 probably wins. Unfortunately for Penn State, they probably won't even score 50. Temple's better on offense and more versatile on offense, they get the nod, especially if Scootie Randall plays.
(2) San Diego St. over (15) Northern Colorado - Big win here for the Aztecs.
(1) Duke over (8) Michigan - Michigan against Duke IN Charlotte? Michigan will play better than expected.. and still lose by more than 10.
(4) Texas over (5) Arizona - Texas has the talent to neutralize Derrick Williams, and more offensive power than Arizona. This could be a good game though.
(3) Connecticut over (11) Missouri - Kemba lights it up and breaks through the Missouri defense to get his 25-30 points. Missouri definitely has a legitimate shot to win this game with great defense, but UConn is on a roll, I'm sticking with the Huskies.
(2) San Diego St. over (7) Temple - If Scootie Randall is healthy, Temple has a strong chance of winning this game and pulling the upset, but it's unsure, and San Diego St. has a better point guard and a better front line. They win here and knock out the Owls.
(1) Duke over (4) Texas - If Texas comes to play here, they could definitely take down Duke. Both are great offensive and defensive teams, and this is going to be a phenomenal game, a must-watch if it takes place. If Texas pulls the upset here, they could go on and win it all, because it'll mean the good Texas showed up to play.
(2) San Diego St. over (3) Connecticut - While Kemba is easily the best player on the court, San Diego St. has a better all around lineup, and should dominate the interior, making it tough for Kemba to get his.
(1) Duke over San Diego St. - Duke's too good, San Diego State can't keep up and Duke wins fairly easily, returning to a Final Four and continuing to torment Steve Fisher.
Southwest Region:
(1) Kansas over (16) Boston U. - 1/16 game, etc.
(8) UNLV over (9) Illinois - Illinois continues to disappoint, backing their way into a 9 seed, and failing to assert themselves on the interior where they have an advantage, and end a failure of a season.
(12) Richmond over (5) Vanderbilt - Both teams can shoot, and Richmond made it to the Sweet 16 last season. Conversely, Vanderbilt has been upset twice in the last three years, and it very well could happen again here. Richmond is the low seed to watch for a Sweet 16 run this year as they're very experienced.
(4) Louisville over (13) Morehead St. - This is a sneaky upset game as Morehead St. has a decided advantage on the glass with the all-time leader in NCAA history in rebounding, Kenneth Faried. Louisville's balanced though and should be okay here, even if Faried gets his.
(6) Georgetown over (11) VCU - Again, the play-in game is going to make people switch to VCU as they looked good against USC yesterday. Chris Wright is playing in this game, and will bring the steadying presence back to Georgetown's lineup. Georgetown wins here and looks like the team they were early in the season.
(3) Purdue over (14) St. Peter's - Who? Purdue, big.
(10) Florida St. over (7) Texas A&M - A matchup of defensive stalwarts with little offense likely to show up. I'm gonna take Florida State here, I'm counting on Chris Singleton to come back and play well against Khris Middleton.
(2) Notre Dame over (15) Akron - Akron barely made the tournament, they were 6th in the MAC, Notre Dame by 20+.
(1) Kansas over (8) UNLV - Yeah, this is gonna be ugly.
(12) Richmond over (4) Louisville - The slipper fits and the Spiders return to the Sweet 16! Louisville and Richmond both don't rebound very well, but Richmond is a bigger team, and can spread the floor more than Louisville can. Pitino did a great job with little talent, but Louisville can't hide their deficiencies anymore.
(6) Georgetown over (3) Purdue - Purdue just doesn't look right. Their last two games were horrific and they struggled scoring, Jajuan Johnson will get his, but will E'Twaun Moore be able to keep up with the prolific trio of the Hoyas' guards I'm going to say no, and that Chris Wright leads Georgetown to a surprising sweet 16 appearance.
(2) Notre Dame over (10) Florida State - Notre Dame doesn't play great defense, but they can score with the best of them. Florida State can't score. Give the edge to the Irish here, led by Ben Hansbrough.
(1) Kansas over (12) Richmond - Richmond is outclassed here, Kansas' easy road continues as Richmond can't match their talent.
(2) Notre Dame over (6) Georgetown - Georgetown is finally outdone, and Notre Dame shows up in a big way with an impressive win over the streaking Hoyas.
(1) Kansas over (2) Notre Dame - Notre Dame has the length to frustrate Kansas here, with 4 6'8" starters, but they don't have the defensive ability to shut down the Morris twins. This should be a good game, and Notre Dame CAN win this if they get hot from beyond the arc and Ben Hansbrough dominates Kansas' less talented guards.
Southeast Region:
(1) Pittsburgh over (16) UNC - Asheville - Not even close.
(9) Old Dominion over (8) Butler - This game is interesting as it pits Butler's guards against Old Dominion's dominant interior. My hunch is that Matt Howard of Butler gets in foul trouble (as he's prone to do), and Old Dominion dominates the boards, winning over last season's national championship runner up.
(5) Kansas St. over (12) Utah St. - Kansas State is peaking at the perfect time, and they're set up in the worst region of the tournament, which allows them the potential to make a Final Four run and justify the hype they received pre-season. Utah State can definitely watch this game, and it's probably the scariest pick of my entire bracket. This will be a close game, keep your eye on it.
(13) Belmont over (4) Wisconsin - Wisconsin is not easy on the eyes, but they never are. They play a slow, methodical game, but it works under Bo Ryan. Last year Wofford almost finished off a major upset, I expect Belmont to one-up Wofford by winning over the overrated Wisconsin team.
(11) Gonzaga over (6) St. John's - The Zags led by Mark Few get a big upset here. St John's has had a great season behind Steve Lavin's great coaching and a lot of senior leadership, but they have a lack of NCAA tournament experience (read: none), and NO size whatsoever to stop Robert Sacre and Elias Harris on the inside. Gonzaga's big men get them the win.
(3) BYU over (14) Wofford - Wofford isn't beating BYU, Jimmer should go for 30+ per usual.
(7) UCLA over (10) Michigan St. - I cannot reasonably pick MSU after the pathetic excuse of a season they've had. UCLA has the versatility to pull this off, but it's going to be close regardless of who wins, and probably low scoring, as both teams struggle overall on offense.
(2) Florida over (15) UCSB - If Florida were a 3 or 4 seed, more people would be picking them to do serious damage in the tournament. Because they're overseeded, too many have them getting knocked out early.
(9) Old Dominion over (1) Pitt - The first #1 seed goes down as Old Dominion wins the rebounding battle against Pittsburgh. Old Dominion can't shoot threes, well, neither can Pitt really. This is going to be a rough and tough game, and I'm going to pick the upset as I never trust Pitt at tourney time.
(5) Kansas St. over (13) Belmont - Belmont isn't beating Kansas St. as they're far too athletic. Wisconsin is unathletic enough for Belmont to keep up with and pull out a win, but Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly should dominate in this game.
(3) BYU over (11) Gonzaga - I'm tempted to pick Gonzaga here as they have a decided advantage on the interior, but BYU has the biggest advantage with Jimmer against Gonzaga's mediocre, young guards. BYU rides Jimmer to the Sweet 16.
(2) Florida over (7) UCLA - UCLA doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Florida, an underappreciated Florida team wins handily here.
(5) Kansas St. over (9) Old Dominion - Old Dominion meets their maker as Kansas St. actually has a strong outside game and shoots the Monarchs out of the building.
(2) Florida over (3) BYU - BYU's run ends, as Florida's talented post players on the inside dominate BYU's lack of interior presence and Kenny Boynton plays great defense on Jimmer.
(5) Kansas St. over (2) Florida - Kansas State fulfills their pre-season promise and makes the Final Four. Jacob Pullen has a transcendent performance and Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels play up to their potential on the interior, leading the Wildcats to the Final Four.
FINAL FOUR:
(1) Ohio State over (1) Duke - Duke has a great team, but this game isn't going to come down to depth, it's going to come down to the team with the most balance, and that's Ohio State. Ohio State shoots better from three-point land, and has a better post game with Jared Sullinger, as well as a top 10 offense and defense. The Buckeyes make it back to the Championship for the first time since 2007.
(1) Kansas over (5) Kansas State - An in-state, in-conference rivalry in the Final Four? Fantastic storyline here. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, Kansas made it this far, they aren't faltering now. The Morris twins are going to dominate the game, and Kansas' team shoots from 3 better overall than KSU.
CHAMPIONSHIP:
(1) Kansas over (1) Ohio State - Kansas has what looks to be the most balanced team, and probably the only team that can really effectively stop Sullinger, play great perimeter defense, and score on the elite Buckeyes defense. Kansas is experienced and upset after the Northern Iowa loss last year and is on a mission this year to redeem themselves. The Jayhawks win a championship and Marcus Morris is named the MOP of the Southwest Region and Final Four.
This post will probably make me look silly in retrospect, but whose picks won't do the same? Enjoy March Madness this year everyone, even if your picks don't work out as expected.
East Region:
(1) Ohio St. over (16) University Texas - San Antonio: It's a 1/16 game, move along.
(9) Villanova over (8) George Mason - I'm going to put faith in Jay Wright to right the ship here, even if just for one game. Whoever wins this is getting slammed in the next round, but this should be a highly entertaining game with great guard play.
(5) West Virginia over (12) Clemson - The Tuesday night play-in game against UAB may sway a lot of people to pick Clemson today, don't let it. Clemson has experience at failing in big games for more than a decade and doesn't have even ONE win against a top-50 RPI team this season. It will be a close game as both teams play stifling defense, but I'm going to trust Bob Huggins here and the experienced group at West Virginia.
(4) Kentucky over (13) Princeton - This is going to get ugly.
(6) Xavier over (11) Marquette - Xavier is playing in Cleveland, so they'll have PLENTY of support. Marquette has good guard play, but so does Xavier with Tu Holloway who should be the best scorer on the floor. It will likely come down to the interior, which always seems to be Marquette's weakness. Kenny Frease and David McLean give Xavier a huge advantage down low that will be the undoing of Marquette.
(3) Syracuse over (14) Indiana St. - Gonna be a laugher.
(7) Washington over (10) Georgia - This game could be fun. Athletes all over the court, and lots of offense to go with it. Isiah Thomas is a stud at pointguard, and seemingly the whole team can shoot 3's which will spread the floor. Georgia has a dynamic guard in Travis Leslie who can jump out of the building, and Trey Thompkins in the post who could dominate down there. I think Matthew Bryan-Amaning will perform admirably on the interior against Thompkins and will help Washington pull off the win.
(2) North Carolina over (15) Long Island - Another laugher, move along folks.
(1) Ohio St. over (9) Villanova - Should be easy for the Bucks here.
(4) Kentucky over (5) West Virginia - This game gives me pause, as this is the team that was the undoing of Kentucky last year. Kentucky just outclasses WVU this year though, while Kentucky lost more talent to the NBA last year, they also still have way more than WVU and Calipari's teams all play good defense which should help negate WVU's advantage there.
(6) Xavier over (3) Syracuse - Upset Alert! Playing in Cleveland again, big advantage for Xavier here. Syracuse is a tough team, but Kenny Frease should play well, even against Rick Jackson, and Tu Holloway is the best guard on the floor. This is a dangerous pick, as Xavier doesn't shoot the 3 well. However, they do get to the free throw line and convert efficiently, so they can pull this off.
(7) Washington over (2) UNC - Bigger upset alert! Washington doesn't have the advantage here, playing in Charlotte, but they do have better guard play. My hunch is that they force Marshall into a high amount of turnovers, and Justin Holiday can play admirable defense against Harrison Barnes. The post game could present problems for Washington as Zeller and Henson are strong down low, but I'm going to roll with the more senior team here in Washington. I can definitely see this game blowing up in my face, UNC is crazy talented, but March is crazy, and this is going to be one of the more surprising Sweet 16 runs this year in my opinion.
(1) Ohio St. over (4) Kentucky - Kentucky folds on the big stage and Josh Harrelson can't find a way to stop Jared Sullinger. If they double team Sullinger, Diebler and William Buford will go nuts from the 3-point line. Ohio State really presents a diverse offensive group that is tough for anyone to match up with.
(7) Washington over (6) Xavier - Isiah Thomas continues to lift his team up, and leads them to a magical Elite Eight run, continuing momentum from the Pac-10 tournament. Can they beat Ohio State though?
(1) Ohio St. over (7) Washington - Nope. They can't. Ohio State's too much for Washington here and ends the magical run of this band of Huskies.
West Region:
(1) Duke over (16) Hampton - 30+ point victory
(8) Michigan over (9) Tennessee - Michigan's getting no credit for their end-season run, and they'll take offense to it, showing up here with an improved Tim Hardaway Jr. and one of the top pointguards in the nation who'll put his name on the map. Tennessee outsizes Michigan, but I'm gonna go with a hunch here and count on the Wolverines to show up big for one more game.
(5) Arizona over (12) Memphis - This isn't your regular Memphis, they're not going to make noise in this tournament, in a couple years though look out, as four of their five starters this season are freshmen. Look for Derrick Williams to blow up in this game.
(4) Texas over (13) Oakland - Oakland got screwed as the best 13 seed playing the best 4 seed. Oakland could beat a team like Wisconsin or an overseeded four, but not Texas. Texas was the best defensive team in the country over the second half of the season, and should outclass Oakland here, who plays about as much defense as the Golden State Warriors.
(11) Missouri over (6) Cincinnati - Upset here, I don't like Cincinnati that much this year, and while Missouri doesn't still play their "40 Minutes of Hell" press, they play fantastic defense and Marcus Denmon should play well in this game and lead Mizzou to an upset.
(3) Connecticut over (14) Bucknell - Not buying an upset here.
(7) Temple over (10) Penn State - This should be a great defensive matchup, and the first team to 60 probably wins. Unfortunately for Penn State, they probably won't even score 50. Temple's better on offense and more versatile on offense, they get the nod, especially if Scootie Randall plays.
(2) San Diego St. over (15) Northern Colorado - Big win here for the Aztecs.
(1) Duke over (8) Michigan - Michigan against Duke IN Charlotte? Michigan will play better than expected.. and still lose by more than 10.
(4) Texas over (5) Arizona - Texas has the talent to neutralize Derrick Williams, and more offensive power than Arizona. This could be a good game though.
(3) Connecticut over (11) Missouri - Kemba lights it up and breaks through the Missouri defense to get his 25-30 points. Missouri definitely has a legitimate shot to win this game with great defense, but UConn is on a roll, I'm sticking with the Huskies.
(2) San Diego St. over (7) Temple - If Scootie Randall is healthy, Temple has a strong chance of winning this game and pulling the upset, but it's unsure, and San Diego St. has a better point guard and a better front line. They win here and knock out the Owls.
(1) Duke over (4) Texas - If Texas comes to play here, they could definitely take down Duke. Both are great offensive and defensive teams, and this is going to be a phenomenal game, a must-watch if it takes place. If Texas pulls the upset here, they could go on and win it all, because it'll mean the good Texas showed up to play.
(2) San Diego St. over (3) Connecticut - While Kemba is easily the best player on the court, San Diego St. has a better all around lineup, and should dominate the interior, making it tough for Kemba to get his.
(1) Duke over San Diego St. - Duke's too good, San Diego State can't keep up and Duke wins fairly easily, returning to a Final Four and continuing to torment Steve Fisher.
Southwest Region:
(1) Kansas over (16) Boston U. - 1/16 game, etc.
(8) UNLV over (9) Illinois - Illinois continues to disappoint, backing their way into a 9 seed, and failing to assert themselves on the interior where they have an advantage, and end a failure of a season.
(12) Richmond over (5) Vanderbilt - Both teams can shoot, and Richmond made it to the Sweet 16 last season. Conversely, Vanderbilt has been upset twice in the last three years, and it very well could happen again here. Richmond is the low seed to watch for a Sweet 16 run this year as they're very experienced.
(4) Louisville over (13) Morehead St. - This is a sneaky upset game as Morehead St. has a decided advantage on the glass with the all-time leader in NCAA history in rebounding, Kenneth Faried. Louisville's balanced though and should be okay here, even if Faried gets his.
(6) Georgetown over (11) VCU - Again, the play-in game is going to make people switch to VCU as they looked good against USC yesterday. Chris Wright is playing in this game, and will bring the steadying presence back to Georgetown's lineup. Georgetown wins here and looks like the team they were early in the season.
(3) Purdue over (14) St. Peter's - Who? Purdue, big.
(10) Florida St. over (7) Texas A&M - A matchup of defensive stalwarts with little offense likely to show up. I'm gonna take Florida State here, I'm counting on Chris Singleton to come back and play well against Khris Middleton.
(2) Notre Dame over (15) Akron - Akron barely made the tournament, they were 6th in the MAC, Notre Dame by 20+.
(1) Kansas over (8) UNLV - Yeah, this is gonna be ugly.
(12) Richmond over (4) Louisville - The slipper fits and the Spiders return to the Sweet 16! Louisville and Richmond both don't rebound very well, but Richmond is a bigger team, and can spread the floor more than Louisville can. Pitino did a great job with little talent, but Louisville can't hide their deficiencies anymore.
(6) Georgetown over (3) Purdue - Purdue just doesn't look right. Their last two games were horrific and they struggled scoring, Jajuan Johnson will get his, but will E'Twaun Moore be able to keep up with the prolific trio of the Hoyas' guards I'm going to say no, and that Chris Wright leads Georgetown to a surprising sweet 16 appearance.
(2) Notre Dame over (10) Florida State - Notre Dame doesn't play great defense, but they can score with the best of them. Florida State can't score. Give the edge to the Irish here, led by Ben Hansbrough.
(1) Kansas over (12) Richmond - Richmond is outclassed here, Kansas' easy road continues as Richmond can't match their talent.
(2) Notre Dame over (6) Georgetown - Georgetown is finally outdone, and Notre Dame shows up in a big way with an impressive win over the streaking Hoyas.
(1) Kansas over (2) Notre Dame - Notre Dame has the length to frustrate Kansas here, with 4 6'8" starters, but they don't have the defensive ability to shut down the Morris twins. This should be a good game, and Notre Dame CAN win this if they get hot from beyond the arc and Ben Hansbrough dominates Kansas' less talented guards.
Southeast Region:
(1) Pittsburgh over (16) UNC - Asheville - Not even close.
(9) Old Dominion over (8) Butler - This game is interesting as it pits Butler's guards against Old Dominion's dominant interior. My hunch is that Matt Howard of Butler gets in foul trouble (as he's prone to do), and Old Dominion dominates the boards, winning over last season's national championship runner up.
(5) Kansas St. over (12) Utah St. - Kansas State is peaking at the perfect time, and they're set up in the worst region of the tournament, which allows them the potential to make a Final Four run and justify the hype they received pre-season. Utah State can definitely watch this game, and it's probably the scariest pick of my entire bracket. This will be a close game, keep your eye on it.
(13) Belmont over (4) Wisconsin - Wisconsin is not easy on the eyes, but they never are. They play a slow, methodical game, but it works under Bo Ryan. Last year Wofford almost finished off a major upset, I expect Belmont to one-up Wofford by winning over the overrated Wisconsin team.
(11) Gonzaga over (6) St. John's - The Zags led by Mark Few get a big upset here. St John's has had a great season behind Steve Lavin's great coaching and a lot of senior leadership, but they have a lack of NCAA tournament experience (read: none), and NO size whatsoever to stop Robert Sacre and Elias Harris on the inside. Gonzaga's big men get them the win.
(3) BYU over (14) Wofford - Wofford isn't beating BYU, Jimmer should go for 30+ per usual.
(7) UCLA over (10) Michigan St. - I cannot reasonably pick MSU after the pathetic excuse of a season they've had. UCLA has the versatility to pull this off, but it's going to be close regardless of who wins, and probably low scoring, as both teams struggle overall on offense.
(2) Florida over (15) UCSB - If Florida were a 3 or 4 seed, more people would be picking them to do serious damage in the tournament. Because they're overseeded, too many have them getting knocked out early.
(9) Old Dominion over (1) Pitt - The first #1 seed goes down as Old Dominion wins the rebounding battle against Pittsburgh. Old Dominion can't shoot threes, well, neither can Pitt really. This is going to be a rough and tough game, and I'm going to pick the upset as I never trust Pitt at tourney time.
(5) Kansas St. over (13) Belmont - Belmont isn't beating Kansas St. as they're far too athletic. Wisconsin is unathletic enough for Belmont to keep up with and pull out a win, but Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly should dominate in this game.
(3) BYU over (11) Gonzaga - I'm tempted to pick Gonzaga here as they have a decided advantage on the interior, but BYU has the biggest advantage with Jimmer against Gonzaga's mediocre, young guards. BYU rides Jimmer to the Sweet 16.
(2) Florida over (7) UCLA - UCLA doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Florida, an underappreciated Florida team wins handily here.
(5) Kansas St. over (9) Old Dominion - Old Dominion meets their maker as Kansas St. actually has a strong outside game and shoots the Monarchs out of the building.
(2) Florida over (3) BYU - BYU's run ends, as Florida's talented post players on the inside dominate BYU's lack of interior presence and Kenny Boynton plays great defense on Jimmer.
(5) Kansas St. over (2) Florida - Kansas State fulfills their pre-season promise and makes the Final Four. Jacob Pullen has a transcendent performance and Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels play up to their potential on the interior, leading the Wildcats to the Final Four.
FINAL FOUR:
(1) Ohio State over (1) Duke - Duke has a great team, but this game isn't going to come down to depth, it's going to come down to the team with the most balance, and that's Ohio State. Ohio State shoots better from three-point land, and has a better post game with Jared Sullinger, as well as a top 10 offense and defense. The Buckeyes make it back to the Championship for the first time since 2007.
(1) Kansas over (5) Kansas State - An in-state, in-conference rivalry in the Final Four? Fantastic storyline here. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, Kansas made it this far, they aren't faltering now. The Morris twins are going to dominate the game, and Kansas' team shoots from 3 better overall than KSU.
CHAMPIONSHIP:
(1) Kansas over (1) Ohio State - Kansas has what looks to be the most balanced team, and probably the only team that can really effectively stop Sullinger, play great perimeter defense, and score on the elite Buckeyes defense. Kansas is experienced and upset after the Northern Iowa loss last year and is on a mission this year to redeem themselves. The Jayhawks win a championship and Marcus Morris is named the MOP of the Southwest Region and Final Four.
This post will probably make me look silly in retrospect, but whose picks won't do the same? Enjoy March Madness this year everyone, even if your picks don't work out as expected.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Detroit Tigers 2011 Preview: First Base
Baseball is back! I'll be previewing the outlook on the Detroit Tigers position by position to lead up to Opening Day, at the major league level and even the future prospects at the position. Up for discussion today is the first base position. It was thought that Cabrera's recent turmoil revolving around the DUI incident and the potential underlying problems with alcohol would have thrown the first base position into complete uncertainty for Opening Day, but Cabrera is already back playing every game in Spring Training. It remains to be seen if the media scrutiny will affect him, but I personally believe he'll perform as his same dominant self. After the jump, we'll touch on Miguel Cabrera, as well as potential fill-ins at the position for the 8-10 games he may not play at the position.
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