Detroit Tigers 2011 Preview: First Base

Baseball is back!  I'll be previewing the outlook on the Detroit Tigers position by position to lead up to Opening Day, at the major league level and even the future prospects at the position.  Up for discussion today is the first base position.  It was thought that Cabrera's recent turmoil revolving around the DUI incident and the potential underlying problems with alcohol would have thrown the first base position into complete uncertainty for Opening Day, but Cabrera is already back playing every game in Spring Training.  It remains to be seen if the media scrutiny will affect him, but I personally believe he'll perform as his same dominant self.  After the jump, we'll touch on Miguel Cabrera, as well as potential fill-ins at the position for the 8-10 games he may not play at the position.



Miguel Cabrera:

The Tigers knew what they were doing when they acquired Miguel Cabrera in a trade in 2008.  The 2010 AL Triple Crown contender and AL MVP runner-up had the most impressive season of his career, producing throughout the season, even without much protection in the lineup during the second half of the year.

Cabrera's 2010 season was phenomenal:

.328/.420/.622 (1.042 OPS!), 179 OPS+, .294 ISO, a career high walk rate (13.7% BB%), and a career low strikeout rate of 17.3%!

Cabrera is a fantastic hitter who as scary as it is, is still improving.  He's just now starting to hit his prime, and has improved gradually each and every season in Detroit.  He's in my opinion the best right-handed hitter in the American League, and second in MLB to Albert Pujols, and actually caught him in a few categories last season.  Regardless if you think he's that highly ranked or not, it's undeniable that Miguel is one of the best players of his generation, and will maintain that production for years to come.

Over the years, his development across the board has been noticeable, and especially over the last two years.  In 2008, Miguel's first season in Detroit, he experienced a setback and a "down year".  While he set a career high in RBIs with 127, he walked far less, and experienced the typical drop in all other forms of production that most players going to the AL from the NL do experience.  After 2008, he stepped up his production, and continued to improve in 2010, to the point that he was runner-up for AL MVP. 

Green lines in BB/K, BABIP, and ISO graphs are Miguel Cabrera, Blue lines in those three are MLB average.  In GB/FB/LD graph, Green = Groundball %, Blue = Flyball%, Red = Line Drive %.  All images courtesy of fangraphs.com

In the BB/K and BABIP graphs, it's easy to see that Miguel struggled in 2008, his first year in the American League, as many hitters do.  The difference is, Miguel Cabrera is "struggling" when he posts a line of .292/.349/.547 (.896 OPS), 37 HRs, and a career high 127 RBI.  He's a truly special hitter who has improved markedly in the past two years in the American League, and has developed into a hitter renowned as the best in the American League, and a perennial Triple Crown and MVP contender.

Over the last few years, Miguel has developed more of a power stroke at the plate, as illustrated by his monstrous jump in ISO (which stands for Isolated Power), the drop in ground ball %, and rise in flyball %.  By reducing the amount of ground balls he hits, Miguel has lessened his biggest weakness, which is his speed on the basepaths.  While a guy like Austin Jackson will leg out a good amount of infield hits each season, Miguel probably won't get more than one or two in any given season, and many of his ground balls will result in double plays due to his lack of speed.  He's increased his flyball percentage to the point that it's now above ground ball percentage, and kept his line drive percentage around 20%, which is outstanding. 

Miguel's BA by GB/FB/LD:
Groundballs: 46/181 (.265), 17 GIDP, 18 RBI
Fly balls: 68/184 (.370), 35 HR, 84 RBI, 8 sacrifice flies.
Line Drives: 64/87 (.736), 3 HR, 22 RBI

Miguel's power numbers obviously drive his fly ball numbers skyward and put him in the top tier of MLB hitters.  However, even taking his power numbers out of the equation by using his BABIP on GB/FB/LD, he's a well above-average MLB hitter. 

The MLB batting averages on groundballs/fly balls/line drives hit into play (BABIP) in 2010 were approximately .235/.137/.716.   Looking at Miguel's in comparison, his BABIPs for the three were .265/.210/.726.  The reason his fly ball and line drive BABIPs are lower than his batting averages for the two is because home runs don't factor into BABIP as technically the balls are "out of play".  Even still, we see Miguel was above average in all three categories, especially when hitting fly balls, which he has done more and more throughout the years.  Miguel's phenomenal power is obviously more useful when hitting fly balls than ground balls, and would lead to 45-50 home runs in most other parks.  The fact that he still hits 35+ HRs every year in one of the bigger parks in baseball is nothing less than astounding.  

Looking ahead to this year, as Miguel Cabrera now has protection in the form of Victor Martinez along with Magglio Ordonez, the sky is the limit for the MVP runner-up.  This year, he may just win his first AL MVP award, with another transcendent performance at the plate.

Projection: .320/.410/.620 (1.030 OPS), 38 HRs, 125 RBI  


Random guy Jim Leyland gives a first baseman glove:

Leyland while with the Tigers has played a good amount of players at first base, some of them not so great, while Miguel Cabrera turned himself into an above average fielder at first base.

Over the years we saw Marcus Thames, Pudge Rodriguez, Carlos Guillen, Ryan Raburn, Don Kelly, and a cast of thousands (joking.. sort of) man first base at one time or another, and since Miggy isn't expected to miss many games, thankfully this group won't see much time fielding first base.  I would guess that Don Kelly and Ryan Raburn are the guys who will assume this role this year, behind Cabrera and then behind Victor.  Any guy in this group is going to be a placeholder and nothing else.  Should Miguel Cabrera go down to injury, Victor Martinez will likely become the primary first baseman.  I touched on Victor in my piece on the Tigers' catchers  so I'll not be redundant by doing the same here.

Minor Leaguers:

Ryan Strieby:

Understandably, the Tigers really don't have any outstanding first base prospects in the minor leagues, with Miguel Cabrera locked into the position for five more years and hopefully the rest of his career.  Strieby is probably the best of the bunch though, and has an outside chance at seeing some major league time this year.  Strieby came up through the minors primarily as a first baseman, but has moved to the outfield now, in hopes that his bat can get some major league playing time in a corner outfield position. 

The 25-year-old hit .303/.427/.565 (.992 OPS) in 362 plate appearances in AA in 2009, hitting 19 HRs.  He's got legitimate 25-30 HR power, but he also strikes out more than one of every four times at the plate.  He struggled to adjust to AAA last season, hitting .245/.323/.400 with 10 HRs in 325 plate appearances.  It's more likely that he's the new version of Jeff Larish in the Tigers' minor league system than him being a hidden gem.  He'll likely be a random occasional call-up should injuries hit the Tigers hard at first base or corner outfield, and will play 95% of each season at Triple-A in Toledo.  Strieby may develop into a useful major league hitter, but considering that he's already 25 and still struggling in Toledo, it seems unlikely.

Overview:

Overall, the Tigers are set at first base with Miguel Cabrera locked in at the position, and should he go down, Victor Martinez could fill in at first base and still be a solid bat there.  Losing Miguel's bat would spell doom for the Tigers' hopes of contending in the AL Central, so Jim Leyland must manage Miguel Cabrera's health and playing time very carefully, resting him or playing him at DH if need be, to ensure that his bat doesn't leave the lineup all season.