The obvious answer is that NONE of these options are "reliable", and ALL of them will see playing time at 2B and in Danny Worth's case, some time at SS. But I'll handicap the competition at the position in this post to explain what we can reasonably expect each player to provide while on the field.
Possible Opening Day starter: Will Rhymes
Carlos Guillen has Leyland's support, but given that Carlos has yet to participate in a game, and there's no set timeline for his return, Will Rhymes based off his performance in limited time last year likely has the lead in the clubhouse at second base. In 191 AB (214 PA) last year, Will posted a very respectable line at second:
.304/.350/.414(.764 OPS), 1 HR, 19 RBI, 30 R, 0 SB, 19 K
The combination of a .300 average and Rhymes' extrapolated total of about 60 strikeouts over a 600 AB season suggests that Rhymes is the best candidate to fill Polanco's old role at second base. Both had little power at the plate, but perform well when asked to play small ball, for example, advancing a runner from 2nd to 3rd by hitting a ball to the right side of the infield.
Rhymes' spray chart was remarkably balanced as we'll see below:
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| Spray chart courtesy of mlb.com. s = single, d = double h = home run |
He hit 62 balls to the left side of the field (.411 BA), 60 balls up the middle (.283 BA) and 61 balls to the right side of the field (.305 BA), which suggests that he has enough bat control to hit the ball where the situation dictates that he should. The left-hander is a slap-hitter that hits to all fields (hitting the best to the opposite field), but at the same point, Rhymes isn't going to hit many sacrifice flies or total many extra base hits, as only a couple of his hits at Comerica traveled more than 300 feet. Power will never be Will Rhymes' game, but he can still be a very useful player should he perform similarly to last season. I expect a slight regression from Rhymes this year, but not too much. He should still showcase solid bat control in the 2 hole of the lineup and be a useful hitter in a Polanco-esque role.
For the sake of comparison, Polanco hit .285/.331/.396, 10 HR, 72 RBI, 82 R, 7 SB, 46 K in his final season with Detroit (618 ABs). We can expect similar triple slash numbers from Rhymes this year, but more strikeouts, and less power and run production. To suggest he's the next Placido Polanco is ridiculous because Polanco offered a unique package of elite contact-hitting as well as decent ability to hit for power and solid fielding.
One advantage he does hold is his speed on the basepaths. While he only attempted 3 steals last season and was caught every time, he stole 20 or more bases in four of his five minor league seasons, and hopefully that speed on the basepaths translates to MLB this year. In the field Rhymes obviously has more range than Carlos Guillen (who doesn't), but doesn't have elite range at the position, similarly to Polanco.
I expect Rhymes to get the most at bats of any option on this list over the course of the season, even if he doesn't open as the starter on Opening Day. Scott Sizemore may end up the Opening Day starter, but if he struggles again, Rhymes will be thrust into the every day second base spot.
Projection given that Rhymes is main starter: 400 ABs, .285/.340/.380, 3 HR, 33 RBI, 65 R, 13 SB
Leyland's favorite option: Carlos Guillen
As Tigers fans know, Jim Leyland plays favorites quite a bit, whether they're as awful with the bat as Adam Everett or Neifi Perez, or as awful in the field as Carlos Guillen. Guillen's range has deteriorated exponentially over the past few seasons as injuries continue to derail his career. He no longer has the range to play shortstop so he's been moved all over the field, from the outfield to first base to his current position of second base. Next to Jhonny Peralta unfortunately, Carlos Guillen would help form the worst fielding 2B-SS combo in MLB, which as you would expect is going to be harmful to the Tigers who already have a poor outfield defense (aside from Austin Jackson). The infield also has a slow and overweight first baseman that can't cover a ton of ground (although he's an above-average fielding first baseman regardless), and an aging Brandon Inge who still possesses great instincts at third but simply doesn't have the range he used to as his knee problems worsen. Guillen isn't going to remedy the poor defense, but that's obviously not why he's getting play at second base.
While more second basemen are starting to hit for power than ever, Guillen's bat at the position is still useful should he remain healthy. While Guillen won't be returning to his heyday from '04-'07 when we could reasonably expect 20 HRs and 90-100 RBI on a yearly basis along with an .800+ OPS, he still has 15 HR power and still possesses decent run-producing potential as well as the ability to drive the ball to all fields. Last year Guillen hit .273/.327/.419, which means he got on base less than Rhymes, but also drove more runs in. Carlos will likely hit 2nd if he starts at 2B, but his bat simply isn't as useful there as it would be hitting 6th or 7th. Guillen's ability to switch-hit can prove useful later in games, but as a right-handed hitter over the past couple seasons, his hitting has fallen off sharply, leading to a .234 average while hitting against lefty pitchers last season, which means, that his bat is only useful as a lefty, which Rhymes also is. Again, the main difference is the power advantage that Guillen has over Rhymes, but is the power hitting really more useful than Rhymes' advantages in contact hitting, fielding, and speed on the basepaths? Given the Tigers' lineup and its spread out power hitting (Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Ryan Raburn, Brandon Inge, and Alex Avila can all be expected to hit 15+ HRs over a full season of work), Guillen's power hitting (which is markedly less impressive than in years past) simply isn't as advantageous for the 2011 version of the Detroit Tigers.
In the end will this matter? Probably not, because as explained earlier, Leyland sticks with his favorite players through and through. In all honesty, Carlos Guillen profiles as a completely average 2B with the loss of power and lack of fielding range, but he has the trust of Jim Leyland as he's been here since Leyland's first year with the team. Additionally, Carlos Guillen's $13 million contract for this season makes it tough to justify not playing him on a regular basis. The Tigers did release Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis last year even though they were owed a combined $23 million, so it's not unprecedented should Guillen be released mid-season, but given that Carlos is still a fairly useful hitter, he'll be on the team this year. He will be gone though after this season as the Tigers will likely commit to Will Rhymes or Scott Sizemore at the position. Guillen likely will get 200-250 ABs at 2B as he has the past couple years, but will fail to remain healthy, as is his trademark.
Projection given Guillen is starter for 400 ABs: .280/.350/.410, 12 HR, 50 RBI, 70 R, 75 K
Scott Sizemore:
Scott Sizemore has the most potential of any 2nd baseman in the Tigers' system, but he also struggled greatly last year in adjusting to major league hitting. Sizemore offers the best talent package of any middle infielder the Tigers have at any level, with the ability to hit for above-average power, draw walks, hit for contact, and be a dependable fielder at second base. While he possesses the potential, will it translate to MLB?
Sizemore's on-base percentage was consistently around .370 and .380 in the minor leagues, which is quite impressive for a young hitter, and very useful at the top of a lineup. In AAA, Scott posted an average over .300, an OBP of .378 and a SLG of .472 over the course of two seasons. His walk rate decreased upon his promotion to AAA, but was still very respectable, drawing walks in about 9% of plate appearances (this translates to about 55-60 walks per 600 ABs.) While he maintained that walk rate in MLB, his strikeout rate increased sharply to 28% of his at-bats. 22% of his batted balls were line drives, which is a great number, but his groundball and flyball rates were both nearly identical (37.9 and 39.8%). Additionally, 17% of his fly balls were infield fly balls. Over a full season, that 17% would definitely have decreased but the fact is, a good amount of Sizemore's batted balls never left the infield.
Last year, Sizemore also suffered with making contact. On pitches outside the zone, Sizemore made contact with only 60.7% (66.5% MLB Avg.), and made contact with 85.6% of pitches he swung at in the strike zone (88.1% MLB Avg.) When it comes down to it, Sizemore should improve these rates over time as he gains experience, but he's a patient hitter that takes a lot of pitches and will never swing more than an average MLB hitter. That's not necessarily a negative as he walks more than the average MLB hitter as well. As long as Sizemore can increase his average to .260 or .270 and have an OBP hovering above or around .350, he'll be a very useful part of the bottom of the Tigers lineup.
I expect Sizemore to start the season at second base, but to quickly relinquish the job to Carlos Guillen once he's healthy.
Projection assuming 400 ABs: .250/.330/.400, 9 HR, 45 RBI, 60 R, 10 SB
Other options:
Other options at the position will include utility infielders like Danny Worth and Don Kelly. Both will likely see some MLB time this season at the positions, probably mostly as defensive replacements. As far as minor league players are concerned, two names to watch are Corey Jones and Brandon Douglas, the 13th and 15th best prospects respectively in the Detroit Tigers minor leagues according to the Detroit News' annual report. Douglas is 25 and should see time in AAA this season which he earned after a solid season last year, and Corey Jones should move up to AA ball this season in Erie at age 23. The Tigers have a bunch of mediocrity at the position, but in the end, they'll work it out and hopefully can manage the position well. Personally, I'd want Will Rhymes starting if I were Jim Leyland, but I have a feeling Rhymes is going to be the man left out of the situation behind Sizemore and Guillen.
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