Albert Pujols: Can St. Louis Afford to Sign Him?

As everyone knows, the negotiating deadline for Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals has passed, resulting in nothing but media hype and a likely panicked front office.  The Cardinals reportedly offered Albert Pujols in between $19 and 21 million dollars a year, which quite frankly is an insulting amount for the best player in baseball, and the best of our generation.  Pujols leads all active MLB players in AVG, OBP, SLG, and obviously OPS as a result.  To let the most productive hitter in baseball leave St. Louis would be devastating to the organization.  However, the Cardinals' organization's best choice, as blasphemous as it sounds, may very well be to let Albert Pujols leave in free agency. 

The overwhelming reason he's got to go for St. Louis to remain a financially functional team is that Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols would take up more than 40% of the Cardinals' spending cap.  Matt Holliday's $17 million per year contract stretching through 2016 seemed like a good idea at the time, when everyone was ignoring that Pujols would become a free agent the next year.

Let's take a look at the Cardinals' payroll and their future obligations:

Blue = Option that will likely be accepted, Red = Option likely to be turned down

The Cardinals' payroll this year after minor league call-ups and other factors will likely end up around $110,000,000 which is honestly probably more than they wanted to spend this year. As we can see in 2011, the Cardinals have seven players hitting free agency, but only four are important decisions: Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Ryan Franklin and Chris Carpenter. Berkman likely won't return which clears up $8 million, and Ryan Franklin will likely pursue a closer job elsewhere and more money, freeing up another $3.5 million.

However, given the FA losses, the Cardinals only have 16 players that will be signed for 2012, 17 if they pick up Chris Carpenter's option which would increase payroll to $70,000,000.  Now let's look at their payroll after adding in a backloaded Albert Pujols contract for about 10 years and $250 million starting in 2012:

Adding in a backloaded contract may enable the Cardinals to actually keep Pujols, or if they defer payments of his contract to future years, but let's also remember, this scenario requires Pujols leaving about $50 million on the table.  However, when we look at even 2012, their financial situation becomes concerning.  The Cardinals' payroll last year was their highest ever.. at $94,220,500 according to Cot's Contracts, so they're already overstretching their limits this year.  In one of the smaller markets in MLB, the Cardinals only have so much of a fanbase to draw from.  They do have one of the more loyal fanbases in the league, but even still have a tough time managing to generate enough revenue to have a $100 million payroll. 

In 2012, the first year of Pujols' deal, the rammifications of their decision to sign him would already become very apparent.  Chris Carpenter, runner-up in the 2009 NL Cy Young and workhorse of the Cardinals' rotation, has a $15 million club option that the Cardinals must decide on.  While he'll be 37, he's still a very productive pitcher, and likely will command a similar salary in the free agent market.  Jaime Garcia and Colby Rasmus will also demand large raises in arbitration, and the $75,000,000 total payroll in the second excel chart's total salary is, again, without Chris Carpenter's $15,000,000 option.  So they would have about $25,000,000 left over that year to sign 9 players for their team, which could be done.  Considering that they'd be losing an ace in Carpenter however, it's unlikely the players they'd sign would be enough to keep them at the same level of contention. 

Well, couldn't they just depend on their minor league system?  If they do, they'll fall out of contention for a couple years at least, and likely more, as most of their prospects aren't expected to pan out until late 2012/2013 at the earliest.  They do have an ace-in-training, prospect SP Shelby Miller, in the minors currently, who they may expect to take Carpenter's place and will likely lead to Carpenter's departure. The depth beyond that is very questionable however.  Also, depending on a minor league system is extremely dangerous, especially when the Cardinals' is considered mediocre.  Overall, more prospects flame out or only fulfill a portion of their potential than develop into stars.  Unless the Cardinals hit the lottery again like they did with Pujols, they'll be in trouble.

In 2013, the Cardinals would drop Kyle Lohse's contract, and Jake Westbrook's option will likely be declined, which would give them $25 million more to spread around.  Even still, they'd be left with about $47 million to sign 14 players that year, an even more difficult task and would have to replace three starting pitchers, and that's BEFORE Colby Rasmus and their other young guns get sizeable raises in arbitration.  They also would have to be cognizant of the fact that Colby Rasmus, Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, Jaime Garcia, and Adam Wainwright would all be closing in on free agent status and will command big contracts to stay on board.  The Cardinals couldn't realistically afford to keep them all, and would likely have to let Motte, McClellan, and one of the 3 stars in that list (probably Adam Wainwright) leave, which would hinder the team greatly, This is also not to mention that Albert would command salaries of $27-30 million towards the end of this hypothetical contract, so their financial mobility would only continue to decrease through the years. 

The 10 year, $200 million contract that most are estimating the Cardinals offered Pujols is realistically about the best they can offer, and may even still be too high for an organization that maxes payroll out right around $100 million.  The team can't sign a new TV contract until about 2017, so they can't count on more revenue through that route either. 

The NL Central isn't 5 pushovers and the Cardinals anymore either as it was in some years.  The Brewers made a huge splash this offseason, acquiring two aces in Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, and have a young team with staying power based around a dominant top 3 pitchers (the above two and Yovani Gallardo) and solid offensive contributors like Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee, and Corey Hart. The Reds also look to have staying power, with a very young and still improving rotation, and Joey Votto (2010 NL MVP), Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Yonder Alonso to carry their offense in the future.

The Cardinals weren't proactive at all in extending Pujols, and probably could have avoided this situation if they offered him an even longer extension in say 2007 or 2008, but they either didn't look ahead or counted on Pujols taking a team-friendly deal, both of which are quite foolish of them.

In the end, the $17 million of flexibility that was taken away when they signed Matt Holliday is what will likely lead to Pujols' departure.  Paying 2 players almost $40 million annually is feasible for the Yankees/Cubs/Red Sox/etc., but not for a smaller market like St. Louis.  The Cardinals under this scenario would lose several marquee players within a few seasons, which is likely too much to replace cheaply and remain at a similar competitive level.  Regardless, I do think the Cardinals will eventually give into Pujols and re-sign him to a contract similar to my projection, even though keeping Pujols may limit their financial flexibility to the point that they are never true World Series contenders.