Good Decisions:
Trading for Adrian Gonzalez: Early in the offseason, the Red Sox made a huge splash and did what many expected them to do, finally acquiring Adrian Gonzalez in a trade with the Padres. In order to get him, they traded three of their top prospects in 1B Anthony Rizzo, CF Reymond Fuentes, and SP Casey Kelly. The Padres got a good haul considering that they wouldn't have been able to resign Gonzalez, but in the end, the Red Sox got a perennial All Star they will soon have locked in at first base for at least a few more years once they sign him to an extension.
Gonzalez is a proven run-producer and power hitter, driving in 99 or more runs in the past four seasons, and hitting 30+ HRs each season (40 in 2009), as well as posting a SLG% over .500 each season. Additionally, Gonzalez is durable, never missing more than 2 games in any of those years. Adrian also is a patient hiter, Slotting him into the Red Sox lineup between hitters like Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis is going to give him more protection than he's ever dreamed of, and he should see more pitches to hit Adrian Gonzalez was intentionally walked 35 times last season, second only to Albert Pujols who was intentionally walked 38 times.
Gonzalez is one of the premier first basemen in baseball, and posted impressive stats in the infamous "pitcher's park" in MLB, Petco Field. The lefty has power to all fields, and like Crawford, could see a great benefit from moving to hitter's haven Fenway Park. Gonzalez is well known as one of the best opposite field hitters in baseball, the second best in MLB behind Ryan Howard in 2010 according to thehardballtimes.com
As firebrandal.com explained and showed, Gonzalez is going to see a good deal more batted balls result in hits than he did at Petco Park:
"Both San Diego and their opponents hit around .230 as team at Petco Park. Neither side exceeded a .350 Slg and both sides’ pitching staffs had extraordinary success compared to the average park. It isn’t just a pitcher-friendly park, but it’s heavily slanted and borderline absurd.Gonzalez will see more success in 2010 as a hitter, and the hitters around him (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youkilis, Crawford) will see more pitches to hit, now that Gonzalez is the most feared entity in their lineup. Expect Gonzalez to hit at least .310/.400/.540 with 35 home runs, 110 RBI, about 50 doubles, and receive some MVP votes in 2011 and going forward through the first half of his all-but-ensured extension.
...The key with Gonzalez and Fenway Park is to think in terms of doubles. Both parks are known for suppressing home run totals, but Fenway Park is ranked #2 in baseball park effects for doubles. The only place more conducive to doubles (home and away teams) is Colorado.
Petco Park is ranked dead last at #30. With that, I think we can expect Gonzalez push 50 doubles in 2011, not necessarily home runs.
...It’s not an exact science, but by my count, Gonzalez had about 12 balls that were outs down the left field line in San Diego. Those are all off the Wall or out onto Lansdowne Street in Boston. There are also three flyballs that would be in the RF bullpen at Fenway, but were caught at Petco.
Letting Adrian Beltre leave in Free Agency:
Nobody can debate that Adrian Beltre was phenomenal last season for the Red Sox, but it's very easy to dispute that he deserved the 6 years and $96 million he received from the Texas Rangers this month in free agency. Scott Boras again turned a career year for Beltre into a massive multi-year deal that will end up hindering the team financially in its last two years at least.
The Rangers didn't want to leave FA without getting something, since they missed out on Cliff Lee, so they overpaid for Adrian Beltre, to prevent the Athletics and Angels from signing the star 3rd baseman. Beltre had a masterful season, playing Gold Glove defense at 3B (as he always has), and hitting
Bobby Jenks (2 years, $12 million): The White Sox chose to let Bobby Jenks walk this year in free agency, and the Red Sox pounced.
As far as peripherals go, Bobby Jenks had the best season of his career. Even while posting the highest walk rate of his career (3.08 walks per nine innings or BB/9), Jenks posted an extremely low HR/9 rate of 0.51 (3 HRs over 52 innings), and striking out more than 1 batter an inning (10.42 K/9).
His downfall was his .368 BABIP against. Jenks allowed a very high LD% of 20.8%, contributing to it, but Jenks' BABIP hasn't been as high since his rookie or sophomore seasons of 2005 and 2006. However, Bobby Jenks' Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was 2.91 in 2010, the best of his career. FIP does exactly what it says, by only taking into account how many home runs, walks, and strikeouts a pitcher surrenders and converting it into an ERA that the pitcher "should" have had given an average defense behind him.
Jenks may end up taking over the closer role from the troubled Jonathan Papelbon, and may not provide much better results than Papelbon's 3.90 ERA, but regardless will help solidify a Boston bullpen that had the 24th ERA in baseball as a whole in 2010.
Carl Crawford (7 years, $142 million): Crawford was the most heralded free agent this offseason, but no one in their wildest imagination could have thought that he would get $142 million over seven years. Crawford will be a useful player for the Red Sox in the early portion of his contract, there's no doubting that.
The short porch in right field could very well help his power numbers go up, and he should end up with a career high in RBIs this season. Crawford and Ellsbury or Crawford and Pedroia at the top of the lineup will create chaos for pitchers, and they really don't have any holes in their lineup, besides at catcher and maybe shortstop. Look for Crawford to hit about 20 HRs again, drive in 90 to 100 runs, score 110+ runs, steal at least 40 bases and post a .310/.370/.500 slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG).
Bad Decisions:
The only decision the Red Sox made that may hurt them was to let Victor Martinez hit free agency. He's pretty bad defensively and at throwing out runners, but he's one of the few elite hitting catchers in MLB today. Keeping in mind that he was replaced in the lineup by Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez's bats however, I think the Red Sox should be more than okay with dealing with his loss.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, he of the massive hype as the former future at catcher for both the Braves and Rangers, will now take over the Red Sox catcher job, backed up by Jason Varitek. While the Red Sox don't want to lose production at catcher, they can afford it as long as Saltalamacchia can call a good game behind the plate and play decent defense.
Best Bargain (Contract under $5 million per year):
RP Dan Wheeler (1 year, $3 million): The Red Sox not only made a great signing here, but also weakened their rival's (the Tampa Bay Rays, Wheeler's former team) bullpen the Tampa Bay Rays at the same time. Over the past three seasons, Wheeler has made 60+ appearances each year while pitching to an ERA below 3.5. Wheeler does allow a good amount of home runs, about one every six innings, which is concerning, but despite that, Wheeler's a strike thrower who limits walks and hits, and after adding a cutter to his pitching repertoire last year, improved his strikeout rate and ground ball rate greatly. The cutter largely replaced his slider, which he threw for only 7% of his pitches last season compared to 27% in 2009. Last year, his flyball percentage dropped to 45%, while his line drive and ground ball rates went up, to 20% and 35% respectively.
Wheeler's a great 7th inning guy, which is about the role he'll fill for the Red Sox. If he logs about 50 innings, with around the same ERA, the Red Sox will be more than happy with the signing, and may give him an extension. If he fails, the Red Sox bullpen is now deep enough to accomodate for that and he isn't too costly.
Grade: A
While Crawford's contract and the likely massive contract that Adrian Gonzalez should receive are huge amounts of money, considering that it's the Red Sox we're talking about here, it's hard to fault them for throwing so much money at two players. When a team can afford a $163 million payroll, most contracts don't look as bad when they hand them out. There's no doubt that Crawford and Gonzalez's major paydays will not be justified by the end of their contracts, but both players are elite talents right now, and should each provide solid production for at least 4+ years. The Red Sox also added plenty of depth to their bullpen, signing Wheeler, Jenks, and re-signing Hideki Okajima. The Red Sox improved their team drastically this year, and probably should be looked at as the favorites to win the AL East, much less the American League's berth in the World Series.
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