1. Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn.
Grade: B+
NFL Comparison:
Without any guarantee of a rookie-wage scale being established for 2011, it's tough to justify giving any other player in this class a guaranteed $40-50 million, and $70-80 million overall. Cam Newton HAS all the potential to be a top quarterback in this league. His speed will open up the Panthers' playbook a bit, and I think we'll see them run some option plays this year, similarly to what they did at Auburn. If DeAngelo Williams returns, the Panthers have a scary backfield to deal with. Newton's able to make reads in the passing game, he did that this year, people overexaggerate how simple the Auburn offense was. While the play terminology wasn't extensive, he had to look off defenders plenty, and dominated the SEC with his arm AND legs. Newton has bust potential, but also has the work ethic and drive to be a top quarterback in this league. The Panthers made the pick they needed to here with no other realistic options available, and didn't do too badly for themselves. \
2. Denver Broncos - Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M
Grade: C
Von Miller simply isn't a 4-3 defensive end at this point. While some will say that's subjecting him to the same line of thinking as the under-sized Elvis Dumervil, Dumervil is 255 to 260 pounds and isn't great against the run. Now the Broncos possibly have the smallest combo of defensive ends in the league in Dumervil (255 pounds) and Miller (240 pounds), and look to struggle heavily against the run-heavy AFC West, featuring Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. If Miller plays OLB, it's a better fit for him, but he's still never excelled at linebacker full-time. His best fit came as a defensive end/linebacker hybrid at Texas A&M where he pass rushed off the edge, both standing up and in a 3-point stance. He's an exceptional talent, and it's too bad that they don't run a 3-4, as he could be a dynamic 3-4 OLB. However, he should still be a valuable weapon if John Fox uses him right.
3. Buffalo Bills - Marcel Dareus, DT, Alabama
Grade: A-
Nothing fancy here, the Bills addressed one of their biggest needs, stopping the run. Could they have addressed quarterback here? Definitely, as Gabbert was still available. It looks however as most top ten teams agreed with the Bills on not viewing Gabbert as highly as some of the experts did. Paying a QB that you don't have graded highly this much money just isn't a sound decision to make. Dareus will play from Day One and make an instant impact against the run. He'll be a disruptive DT, and playing alongside Pro Bowler Kyle Williams should make their 3-man defensive line look impressive. Now they need to address the linebacking corps. They'll look to get a QB in Round 2, and for their sake, hopefully opt for Ryan Mallett rather than the completely average Andy Dalton, whose ceiling is probably something like, oh, Ryan Fitzpatrick.
4. Cincinnati Bengals - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
Grade: A
Pretty tough to go wrong with the best receiver prospect in this draft, and one some say is the best since Calvin Johnson. Sure, Julio Jones tested better at the combine, but Green made more of an impact on the field in his time. With Chad Ochocinco on the way out, A.J. Green will step right in as the #1 reciever, and gives Palmer reason to return for this season.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Grade: A
Did the Cardinals have more pressing needs than cornerback? Yes, they definitely did. But Peterson is what some think is the best prospect in the NFL Draft this year, and the Cardinals jumped on him. Some speculated that the Cardinals would have traded their pick for Kevin Kolb of the Eagles if trades had been allowed, but I highly doubt Ken Whisenhunt and the Cardinals valued him highly enough to even swap first round picks and move down to pick #23 in exchange for Kevin Kolb. Peterson and Rodgers-Cromartie are both true playmakers at the position, and form an imposing secondary that the laughable quarterbacks in the NFC West aren't going to be able to pass on. The Cardinals probably wanted Miller here but didn't have that option. Whisenhunt stated that Gabbert and Newton weren't the same caliber of players as Sam Bradford last year, so they clearly didn't value the quarterbacks available here enough to justify taking one. They could make a move to get a QB in round 2 today, and if trades are allowed, could make a push at Kolb by offering their 2nd round pick as well as a couple others.
6. Atlanta Falcons (Acquired via CLE) - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
Grade: B-
The Falcons had some serious guts to trade five picks to move up and get their target, Julio Jones. I question the move, however. The Falcons couldn't get any pressure on Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs, and that was easily their most pressing need. At 27, the Falcons could have found solid defensive end prospects available, or could have traded up to pick #14 potentially to draft a sliding Robert Quinn at DE.
7. San Francisco 49ers - Aldon Smith, 3-4 OLB, Missouri
Grade: A-
Harbaugh surprisingly didn't make his impact on the 49ers initially by taking a quarterback, he opted for the dynamic pass-rusher off the edge in Aldon Smith. Smith is a raw talent, and would have been a sure top 10 pick next season, so while this is a little higher than was expected for him this year, I still like the pick. He's an athletic freak, and helps solidify their front 7. Improving their pass rush was a big priority this offseason, and they did it with Smith. They obviously had him valued over Robert Quinn, which I don't disagree with, and over Prince Amukamara, the CB who slipped to #19. Smith should play from Day 1, and I like the pick here.
8. Tennessee Titans - Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Grade: D+
WOW. If I could leave it at that, I would. The Titans over-drafted here, paranoid about losing out on a QB in a year where they're claiming that Vince Young will be released and they'd be left with Rusty Smith at the position. Locker simply isn't a top prospect, and while I think he could develop over time, his development could be severely stunted since he's going to play from day one. He struggles with accuracy, and doesn't have any top-flight weapons in the passing game to throw to. Bo Scaife is a good but not great TE, none of the WRs are all that impressive, and Chris Johnson can only catch so many screens. While Locker will work hard, this simply wasn't the ideal situation for him and was WAY too early. Nick Fairley was the widely suggested pick here and would have been the better pick. No reason to force themselves to pick a player who's not worth the pick.
9. Dallas Cowboys - Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Grade: A
The Cowboys picked the player they needed to here, their OL suffered last year, as Tony Romo and Jon Kitna couldn't stay upright all year. They believe in Doug Free at one tackle spot and now have another young tackle in Smith to slot in immediately on the line. The Cowboys are still one of the most talented teams in the league and underachieved severely last season, they got a far better player this year than if they had made the playoffs. While they could have gone with a 3-4 DE like J.J. Watt or Cameron Jordan, or Prince Amukamara, I like this pick, they had multiple needs, but chose to protect their franchise QB.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (Acquired via Washington): Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Grade: B+
David Garrard's leash just got a little shorter, as the Jaguars moved up 6 picks to take Gabbert here, who slipped farther than most expected. I'll give them props for moving up to get the QB they liked, and if they can find a couple receivers to put around him, they'll have a great group to run a spread-offense with should they choose to do so around Gabbert. Garrard simply isn't good enough to lead a true contender, and the Jaguars made it apparent they don't think he is anymore, either. Gabbert has some time to sit back and learn in the NFL, which is great, but I think he'll get thrown into the fire this year. They could have opted for Ryan Kerrigan at 16, a solid DE prospect, but chose the QB instead, a smart move. The Redskins out-thought themselves and ended up taking Kerrigan as a 3-4 OLB in Jacksonville's spot, so even when the Redskins acquire MORE picks, they managed to screw up.
11. Houston Texans - J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
Grade: C+
I like J.J. Watt here as their transition to a 3-4 required another top-flight 3-4 DE to play opposite Mario Williams, but they surely needed a cornerback more here, and Amukamara was available at 11. The Texans will yet again field one of the worst secondaries in football and get passed on all day by Peyton Manning. This regime shows yet again that they don't understand what's holding them back from contending and make the wrong pick.
12. Minnesota Vikings - Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
Grade: B-
Clearly a panic move, the Vikings couldn't find a partner to trade down with, and didn't want to lose their quarterback, likely to be the next one off the board, so they took him earlier than projected. I think Ponder will be one of the better QBs in this class, but similarly to the others, will be a good and not great QB. He's definitely one of the more pro-ready QBs and at least has a decent OL to work behind, so he ended up in a great situation with the Vikings. Whether this move works out, we'll see. They addressed their greatest need though and stuck to their guns here, which is commendable. Still doesn't change the fact that he was overdrafted though.
13. Detroit Lions - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
Grade: B
Yet again, the draft throws us a curveball, and the Lions' defensive-minded regime opts for the most disruptive force at DT in the draft for the second year in a row. There's no way the Lions thought Fairley would make it this far, and it's clear they loved him. Prince Amukamara was still on the board, and probably should have been the pick here, but it's tough to fault the Lions for giving themselves the most dynamic DT tandem in the league, one they'll have together for 5 years. This defensive line just got exponentially better, and it's going to be tough for the opposition to block Fairley, Suh, AND Vanden Bosch. This would be an A if they didn't draft at the position they LEAST needed and took Prince Amukamara, but it's tough to grade it low when they got such an amazing value.
14. St. Louis Rams - Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
Grade: A+
Great value here for the Rams, everyone knew they needed a pass-rusher this year. Quinn fell pretty far, although he did sit out this entire season. That's troubling, but he's still in great shape. Quinn will play from day one and gave them a great end to play opposite Chris Long.
15. Miami Dolphins - Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida
Grade: B
Pouncey got overrated here, he's not the prospect that his brother Maurkice was last year, and he's definitely a guard. Name value definitely escalated his value, so he can thank Maurkice for his bigger payday. He could be a good guard, but I simply don't buy that he's worth a higher pick than his brother was. The Dolphins' OL did suffer though, so it's a definite need and I'll give them credit for not reaching for a quarterback here. Pouncey should end up being a good guard in the end, but not a Pro Bowler, which is the only reason a guard should go this high in round one. I thought they'd end up taking Mark Ingram, but they probably will opt for a RB in Round 2 and hope Ryan Williams will fall to them. Round 2 offers much better value at the RB value.
16. Washington Redskins (via Jacksonville) - Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue
Grade: F
Even listing Kerrigan as a hybrid DE/OLB is a MAJOR stretch. Kerrigan doesn't have the skillset to be a good OLB in a 3-4 defense, and the Redskins overthought their pick here quite a bit. Why not opt for Prince Amukamara here as Carlos Rogers is set to be a FA? The defensive ends had dropped off by this point no doubt, but this is still a stupid pick. He's a far better fit on the line at a 4-3 DE position, and while he offers a relentless motor, he's not a fit, and yet again the Redskins leave us scratching our heads wondering what they're thinking.
17. New England Patriots - Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Grade: A
I like this pick for the Patriots, they needed a new tackle to groom as Matt Light is a free agent, and this shows that Light is probably on his way out. They could have traded down here I'm sure, but they stayed at 17 to take what they felt was the top offensive tackle available. I liked Costanzo a bit more, but Solder no doubt has higher potential as a pass blocker, and the Patriots really pass to set up the run, so Solder's a better fit for them.
18. San Diego Chargers - Corey Liuget, DE/DT, Illinois
Grade: C
No one really projects Liuget as a 3-4 end, he's more of a pass-rushing, split-the-gap 4-3 DT, so this move is pretty confusing. There's no doubt he's talented enough to be drafted here, and maybe the Giants wanted him and that pressured the Chargers to take him here for some reason. They must think he'll project to 3-4 end, so we'll see how it works out.
19. New York Giants - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Grade: A+
I don't know what scouting departments were thinking, but Amukamara was an amazing talent, and should not have fallen this far. The Giants now have a great group of corners in Terrell Thomas, Corey Webster, and Prince Amukamara to go along with their dominant defensive line. The Giants may have
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
Grade: A
This was one of the most predicted and choreographed picks of the first round, and for good reason. I love Clayborn personally, having seen him completely dominate Michigan's front to the point that Taylor Lewan false started 3 times in one game and got benched. Clayborn is a dynamic pass rusher, and although he has to play right end due to a condition that makes one of his arms weaker, he is one of the most balanced ends in this draft. He'll be great in run support and still has enough athleticism to get a QB outside the pocket. Clayborn was a consensus top 10 prospect coming into this year, and I think Tampa continued their solid drafting into this year.
21. Cleveland Browns (via KC) - Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor
Grade: B
Phil Taylor, while he had a great senior bowl and offseason, was a luxury for the Browns, who don't necessarily need a nose tackle. They run a 4 man front so he's less useful immediately, although he will replace Shaun Rogers, so he has a spot. Normally this would be a C or C-, but since they acquired so many picks in the Julio Jones trade, and got the player they wanted apparently, I give them a much higher grade. Kudos to Holmgren and Tom Heckert for making the right move in trading down and amassing draft picks to fill out a sub par roster.
22. Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Costonzo, OT, Boston College
Grade: A+
Great pick by the Colts, they pick up who I thought was the best and most balanced OT available this year. While Sherrod is a better pass protector, the Colts need to have a better run-blocking O Line to be a true contender. The Colts yet again have a great draft, good job by Polian.
23. Philadelphia Eagles - Danny Watkins, G, Baylor
Grade: B
My Eagles opt to protect Michael Vick with the first pick in the draft, a sound move. Watkins addresses a crucial need, probably the most important position behind cornerback to upgrade, and given how much of a risk Jimmy Smith is, probably the right position to address. Watkins is 26, and has only four years of football experience, but was all Big-12 last year, and definitely still has room to grow at the position. Watkins will probably open the season at starter, but overall I like the pick as it addresses a need. It was certainly unexpected (I thought they'd go with a tackle), but he graded out as a first-rounder, so by quality and need, solid but not overwhelming pick.
24. New Orleans Saints - Cameron Jordan, DE/DT, Cal
Grade: B
Jordan shouldn't have fallen past 17, and was in discussions to go ninth overall in the draft to the Cowboys, so great value pick by the Saints here. However, his fit at a 4-3 defensive end is very questionable at 6'4", 287. He offers size against the run undoubtedly and will be a great presence there, but his pass rushing ability will be questionable as such a big player on the outside. On the inside he'd be under-sized, but maybe a good nickel pass-rusher. While he's not going to be the best pass-rusher, he strikes me as the type to stick in the league for a while as a dependable starter. Good pick here because of the value, but his fit in their scheme will be interesting.
25. Seattle Seahawks - James Carpenter, OT, Alabama
Grade: D+
A finesse 340 pound lumbering tackle? No thanks. He's gonna get exposed in the NFL, this simply isn't a good pick. Not to mention he's playing RT, since Okung is solidified at LT. If you really needed to take a tackle, Gabe Carimi and Derek Sherrod were available and far better options.
26. Kansas City Chiefs (via CLE via ATL) - Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
Grade: A+
First off, can we point out that the Ravens at pick TWENTY SIX, weren't prepared after three hours of drafting to make a trade with the Bears and didn't get their pick in on time? That's laughable, but beside the point. The Chiefs took Baldwin here, who I love as a sleeper this year. Baldwin, with below-average QB play at Pitt, and amazing RBs dominating the offense in Lesean McCoy and Dion Lewis, dominated when asked to make a play, and I think is easily the third best WR available this year. Baldwin and Bowe are a great tandem, and will give defenses nightmares in the red zone. They needed to upgrade their passing game and gave Cassel a great weapon here.
27. Baltimore Ravens - Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Grade: C
This guy's too much of a risk to give him an A, and the way the Ravens handled this pick surely is. If the Chiefs had taken Jimmy Smith ahead of the Ravens, they would be the laughingstock of the draft and would have screwed up their plans completely. Having said that, they ended up with the guy they wanted, although he's probably the biggest character risk in the draft. Smith has been involved in the following: two alcohol-related arrests, three failed drug tests (one of which was codeine), impregnating two women (both of whose parents paid for abortions), and an assault in a restaurant. Jimmy Smith is a top 10 talent, and some believe he's the most talented CB this year, even above Peterson. But once he gets his hands on the money he's about to see, I don't doubt he's going to get himself into trouble, and could just as easily be in jail in three years as he could be a top-flight cornerback. I will say the Ravens are the one lockerroom I can see reining him in if it's possible, keeping the pick at a C.
28. New Orleans Saints (via NE): Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Grade: A+
Great pick here by a team widely speculated to be interested in Ingram. They got Cam Jordan and then came back and got Ingram, the best RB in the draft. Pierre Thomas can't stay healthy, and Reggie Bush may be on his way out, as he's not worth his $10 million salary. Great pick here, and Ingram should make an instant impact, especially with the passing offense opening up holes for him to run through.
29. Chicago Bears: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Grade: A+
Looks like the Bears didn't need to trade up with Baltimore after all. The Bears' dream comes true and Carimi fell to them at 29, and they were up at the podium within seconds of being put on the clock. Carimi will play at RT on day one and be phenomenal, especially in the run game. Wisconsin sends another polished tackle to the league who replaced Joe Thomas nicely, amazing value here for the Bears, who may be able to return to more of their hard-nosed style.
30. New York Jets: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple
Grade: A
Wilkerson definitely fills a need for the Jets, and was valued by some as one of the top 15 players in the draft. I certainly didnt expect him to last this long, great find for the Jets. He may open this season as the starter at left end.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
Grade: A
I love the pick of Heyward, the guy is a monster. His physical strength is elite, and his speed and agility are underrated. The Steelers really missed that dominant physical presence at DE without Aaron Smith, and Heyward, similarly to Wilkerson, may be the starter at defensive end for the Steelers in week one.
32. Green Bay Packers: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
Grade: A+
The Packers who run a pass-heavy offense (to say the least), picked possibly the best pass protector in the first round in Sherrod. Chad Clifton's getting up there in age, and Sherrod will eventually succeed him, so good foresight by the Packers here.
Today the second and third round get under way, and I have a few players and teams to watch today:
- Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers: How far will he fall? I can't think Bowers, who was in consideration for the #1 pick until about six weeks ago, is going to last much longer. Now that almost every team has made a pick, they're more willing to take a major risk, which Bowers is admittedly. He could go off the board as early as the first couple picks, especially if a team trades up for him. I don't see him making it past the Browns' second round pick at 37 however, they should snatch him up if he's available.
- Ryan Mallett, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Ricky Stanzi: These four QBs are likely to be picked today, the first three probably by the end of the second round. Some teams think Mallett is the best QB in this class, at least 3 teams according to a report had him as the top QB on their boards. He should go fairly early, I wouldn't be surprised if Mallett and Dalton were gone within the first five picks of the round. If Miami could package a group of picks, I think they'd love to have Mallett, especially considering they brought him in multiple times. Andy Dalton will probably be selected first, even though he doesn't have much potential. If a team doesn't trade up to the Patriots' 33rd pick, he'll probably go by pick 35, which the Bengals hold. Supposedly the Raiders hold Colin Kaepernick in very high regard, so watch for him to the Raiders. Ricky Stanzi is more of a wildcard, he'll end up as a backup for a contender in the late 2nd or 3rd round more than likely.
- Ryan Williams, Mikel Leshoure, Demarco Murray, Kendall Hunter, and more: Running backs should play a much bigger part in today's rounds. Ryan Williams, Mikel Leshoure, Daniel Thomas and Demarco Murray all COULD go in Round 2, but it's likely that only Williams, Leshoure and possibly Thomas do, as teams will be scared off by Murray's injury history. Daniel Thomas of Kansas State is a big back with more quickness than he gets credit for and should be a great pick late in the 2nd or early in the 3rd. Other possibilities include Dion Lewis, Kendall Hunter, Taiwan Jones, Delone Carter, Shane Vereen, Jacquizz Rodgers. Dion Lewis will probably fall into day 3 in this draft as a diminutive back that had a poor senior year. Kendall Hunter performed well in the Senior Bowl and should be rewarded by being selected on Day 2 as a change of pace back that has the skill set to start in the future.
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