Michigan vs Mississippi State Part Six: Final Prediction

This is the final part of my extensive series analyzing Michigan's matchup vs Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl on New Year's Day.  Previous posts are found below:

Michigan's Offense vs Mississippi State's Defense
Analyzing Auburn's Offense vs Mississippi State's Defense
Michigan's Defense vs Mississippi State's Offense
Analyzing Mississippi State's Offense vs Kentucky
Analyzing Michigan's Defense vs Illinois' Offense

Now that I've overanalyzed the game to death, time to make my final predictions for the game.


Mississippi State's strengths are their red zone defense, as well as their running game and confusion they create with it on offense.  Michigan's strengths all lie on offense, and they struggle to stop both the running and passing game (but especially passing). 


Another factor not visited yet, is that Michigan is forced to go for almost every 4th down due to lack of a kicking game, which will come into play against MSU's great red zone defense.  The key factor in this game is Michigan converting in the red zone, and not getting forced into 3rd and longs/4th down conversions/FG attempts.  If Michigan has to depend on their kicking game to bail them out three or four times in the red zone, you may as well chalk up a win for Mississippi State.

What Michigan needs to do to win:

• Follow their defensive assignments!  If Michigan can maintain their defensive assignments against the triple option, and constant motion of players in Mississippi State's offense, they've got a great chance in this game, and should pull out a victory.  As bad as our pass defense is, Michigan still needs to force Miss. St. into passing situations, where Chris Relf isn't the most disciplined passer.
• Exploit Mississippi State through the zone read, QB Runs and WR screens.  As shown in my 2nd post, Auburn had great success running WR screens and QB Power plays.  We need to mix up these plays well, and that should be done if Denard's making all his correct reads on zone read plays.  He has the option to hand it off, throw it to the WR screen or keep the ball himself on every zone read play, and if he can make the right decisions in a hostile environment (the game is in Florida against an SEC school), the offense will be able to move right down the field without much trouble.
• No turnovers!  Mississippi State recovers most of the fumbles they force, and forces 2+ turnovers a game on defense.  If Denard takes care of the ball, Michigan will be in great shape to pull out what I consider an upset victory.
• Convert in the red zone or make big plays to avoid the red zone.  The Wolverines need to return to being a big play offense like they were earlier in the year against their non-conference schedule.  If they can get a few long runs from Denard, or a couple long runs and a few long passes, it will bode well for Michigan.  They can't get stuck in too many red zone situations, because Mississippi State only allows TDs on 44% of red zone possessions on defense.  If they can convert against Miss. St.'s red zone defense, Michigan stands a great chance in this game, because that's what has helped keep MSU in games this year.
• Don't get hurt Denard!  Denard needs to avoid major hits in this game, because Tate Forcier has been ruled academically ineligible for the game.  If Robinson gets hurt, Devin Gardner will have to waste his redshirt on a few drives in a mediocre bowl game.  Rather than having Gardner for 4 more years, we'll only have him for 3 years (should he even stay here if Rich Rod departs, but that's a separate issue altogether).  If it means giving up 2-3 yards, Denard needs to get down, because he's going to have 20 carries in this game, it's basically a lock.

My predictions for the game to make me look stupid later:

• Michigan runs for 200+ yards and 3 touchdowns, even against a strong rushing defense.
• Denard accounts for 80% of Michigan's offense, as the RBs are largely shut down by the MSU linebacker corps.
• Vick Ballard (MSU) runs for 100+, Relf runs for 80 yards and also passes for 175 while completing at least 65% of his passes.
• Michigan goes for it on at least six 4th downs, partially due to not trusting the kicking game, and also because Rich Rod will throw caution to the wind, knowing he needs to impress with a win in this game.
• Michigan's defense struggles to stop Mississippi State's complex rushing offense and loses their defensive assignments often, as they have all year.
• Michigan loses the turnover battle 3-1 (not counting turnovers on downs).
• Final Score - Mississippi State: 35   Michigan: 28