Michigan's Offense:
Denard Robinson was a revelation this season, and the most dynamic dual threat quarterback this side of Cameron Newton, this year's Heisman winner and leader of national championship competitor Auburn. Should Rich Rodriguez somehow weasel his way into keeping his job for another season, Denard will obviously be the starting quarterback and should improve on the progress he made this year.
To summarize Michigan's offensive performance succinctly and briefly, let's look at a chart I made that details most of the important statistics from each and every Michigan game this season.
* - When calculating averages for YPG and PPG allowed, I excluded UMass, as their defense in FBS would pretty easily be the worst we faced this year, and their stats if in FBS would be dramatically different.
Jumping down to the bottom, right away the numbers that catch your eye are Michigan's total yardage, as well as Denard's total yardage. Michigan averaged 500 yards per game, and was freakishly balanced, going for basically 3,000 yards on the ground and in the air on the season.
Denard accounted for about 66% of Michigan's offense this year, which honestly seems a bit low, but made him the 3rd most productive offensive player in college football this season. He completed 62% of his passes this year, and I'd argue it would have been closer to 64% or 65% if not for the numerous drops that Michigan had week in and week out.
The troubles Michigan suffered in the season's 2nd half can be attributed chiefly to three factors:
1.) The team was far too prone to fumbles and turnovers, and has been throughout Rich Rod's tenure.
In 2008, the team committed 30 turnovers with the revolting, gag-inducing, nightmare-provoking combination of Nick Sheridan and Steven Threet at the helm, but they also fumbled the ball 38 times in total (losing 18). 2009 brought Tate the Great's September Heisman campaign, and after it, a sudden onset of turnovers, resulting in 28 total over the course of the year, with 29 fumbles (13 lost). In 2010, our great dreadlocked hope took his Heisman campaign through week five, and then we got into the heart of our Big Ten Schedule, turning the ball over 22 times in our final 7 games. Over Rodriguez's 3 years, the team has fumbled over 100 times, which is simply unacceptable and means he isn't preaching ball control enough. Michigan averaged about 12.25 possesions per game, but when 2.25 of those are lost to turnovers every week, that puts the offense under more pressure to convert. Adding in the 11 turnovers on downs that Michigan surrendered this year, about 26% of Michigan's drives ended in turnovers. Almost no offense can overcome that, certainly not this Wolverines team with a horrible defense supporting it (if you wish to call it "supporting").
2.) Our kicking game was cringe-worthy to put it lightly.
Secondly, our kicking game was cringe-worthy to put it lightly. Of the 13 field goals we attempted, only 4 were made (good for 31%, making Ben Wallace's free throw percentage look impressive), and two extra points were shanked. Had the team converted all extra points as well as 10/13 FGs, the team's scoring average would have risen to 17th in the nation. While the 20 points may seem minor, you also have to think about the many situations where Michigan was forced to go for it on 4th down, knowing that the kickers would miss the FG attempt. Michigan was pretty mediocre on 4th downs, converting 12 of 23 attempts (52.18%) which ranked them 62nd overall.
Michigan's red zone scoring rate was 81.13% (70th in the country), meaning that they scored that often when inside the 20-yard-line. Thanks in large part to the poor field goal kicking, the Wolverines came away ten times in the red zone without any points.
3.) We couldn't turn yards into points against elite defenses/teams.
While Michigan racked up yards like they were playing a video game, the failure to turn those yards into points against elite teams cost them. The team did have ten 85+ yard touchdown drives this season (the most in NCAA), but many drives failed to net points or touchdowns.
Michigan also was one of the best big-play offenses in the country, 3rd in the country with nine plays of 60+ yards, above teams like Arkansas, Auburn, and Oregon.
While the yardage numbers are nice, in the end, it's all about putting points on the board with those yards, and the Wolverines suffered in that department against the best teams.
Against the best four teams we faced (Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State), our offense suffered. Michigan managed 17 points against Michigan State, scored much of their 28 against an Iowa prevent defense in the fourth quarter, were never competitive with Wisconsin, and utterly collapsed after about 15-20 minutes of competitive football with the Buckeyes. Michigan's offense averaged 400+ yards in these four games, but only averaged 20 points per game, a disappointing figure for what is called an elite offense by some.
Mississippi State's Defense:
As I did for Michigan's offense, I created a chart for Mississippi State's defensive performance in 2010.
The main thing to take from this chart is that while Mississippi State is a mediocre defense in terms of total defense (yards allowed), they're in the top 25% of FBS in points allowed. Their bend, but don't break defense only allowed two teams all year to meet their scoring average, with Arkansas and LSU both barely surpassing their season scoring averages (37.3 and 28.8 respectively), in victories (38-31 in double OT for Arkansas and 29-7 for LSU.)
Their red-zone defense was phenomenal, holding opponents to field goals 33% of the time (14th-most in the nation), only allowing touchdowns 44.4% of the time (11th-best in the nation) and forcing 8 turnovers. While they may not be the most stout team between the 20's, once they get in the red zone, their poor secondary benefits, as they have less ground to cover and smaller zones to play, allowing their defense to tee off on the quarterback and to send more rushers.
Generating 28 turnovers this season, the defense was very efficient, recovering 16 of 19 fumbles they forced, displaying the alert awareness of their defensive line and linebackers. They have three potential picks in the first four rounds of the upcoming NFL draft with DE Pernell McPhee, MLB Chris White and OLB K.J. Wright, contributing to their 19th ranked rushing defense.
Mississippi State looks like the type of team that could give Michigan a lot of trouble, especially when looking at Michigan's poor performance in the red zone and Mississippi State's very impressive defensive performance in the same situation. Mississippi State is also a solid team against the running game overall, and the 3rd best rushing defense we'll have faced this season.
However, when looking at the most comparable offense they faced in the next post, we'll see that Michigan is by no means doomed and can exploit some very apparent weaknesses. I'll highlight the strengths and weaknesses of Mississippi State's defense in the next post, as I analyze their defensive game film from their 2nd game this year against Auburn.
No comments:
Post a Comment