First 2011 NFL Mock Draft

The NFL season is over and it's time for my first 2011 NFL Mock Draft.  As the draft inches closer, I'll probably add in a 2nd round, and possibly a 3rd round should I feel ambitious enough.  

1. Carolina Panthers - Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

The Panthers no longer have the fortune of selecting the unanimously heralded Andrew Luck, so they'll instead address their poor defensive line and select the most disruptive force on Auburn's national championship winning defense, Nick Fairley.  He was this year's version of Ndamukong Suh, and has earned his way up here.  The Panthers also probably don't have a ton of faith in Jimmy Clausen after last season, so Blaine Gabbert is also a possibility, but Fairley seems more realistic as Gabbert isn't nearly as polished of an NFL prospect.

Alternative Pick: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

2. Denver - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

With Champ Bailey turning 33 this offseason, the Broncos will likely look to move on from him and hand out a major contract to a younger stud CB like Patrick Peterson.  Peterson was the most feared CB in college football this season, and a dynamic, game-changing punt returner.  His first month of the season had him squarely in the Heisman race, and he won the Thorpe award for best defensive back.  The 6'1" 222 lb. physical freak will run a 4.4 (at least) and has great instincts, he'll be a constant at CB for the Broncos for the next decade.  If Champ Bailey does stay in Denver, look for the Broncos to address their DL as they return to a 4-3 defense, and to select Da'Quan Bowers, the defensive end from Clemson, or Nick Fairley should he still be available for some reason.

Alternative Selection: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

3. Buffalo - Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

The Bills will be running some 4-3 and some 3-4, and Da'Quan Bowers has the athleticism to play in either, so he would be a great selection here for the Bills.  The junior defensive end, formerly the #1 high school prospect in the nation, finally realized his insane potential, with 15.5 sacks and 25 tackles for loss this season.  Bowers is a true force on the defensive line and COULD frustrate offensive schemes for the next decade in the NFL.  The major problem with this pick: He has low work ethic as evidenced by his poor first two seasons, and the Bills don't know if they're running a 4-3 or 3-4 yet.  Unfortunately for Bills fans, they probably don't care about either and could very easily pull the trigger on Bowers.

If the Bills would like an outside linebacker that can play in the 4-3 and 3-4, they could also opt for Von Miller of Texas A&M who is another gifted, athletic freak. This just seems like a typical Buffalo Bills pick: a player with little work ethic that they don't know will truly fit into their scheme.

Alternative Selection: Von Miller, 3-4 OLB/4-3 WLB, Texas A&M

4. Cincinnati: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

AJ Green is a supremely talented wide receiver, and the best in this 2011 draft class.  Playing at Georgia and missing the first four games, he still excelled, catching 9 touchdowns and nearing 100 yards per game with young, unproven quarterback Aaron Murray at Georgia.  He'll take over immediately as the #1 or #2 receiver for the Bengals, depending on whether or not Chad Johnson (he changed it back!) is allowed to return.  The Bengals could also use some help along their DL and Robert Quinn of North Carolina could easily be selected here, especially since the Bengals don't usually care about character problems in players they acquire as we've seen over the years.

Alternative Selection: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

5. Arizona: Von Miller, 3-4 OLB, Texas A&M

Ken Whisenhunt worked with Dick Lebeau and learned to appreciate dynamic rush linebackers on the outside of a 3-4, and Von Miller will be Arizona's star linebacker of the future.  He had a great junior season and started really dominating through the second half of the season, and carried that momentum into a great Senior Bowl, where he showed he can play as a 4-3 LB in coverage as well, making him versatile enough to play in a nickel or dime scheme if asked to do so.  Arizona may also look at a QB here, probably Blaine Gabbert should they go with one, but it seems like with Max Hall and John Skelton in the fold, they'll go with them for another year, or bring in a veteran QB like Donovan McNabb or Kevin Kolb, especially with Fitzgerald's recent request for the organization to acquire Kolb.

Alternative Selection: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

6. Cleveland: Marcel Dareus, DE/DT, Alabama

The Browns don't exactly have a dominant defensive 3-4 front, so they'll opt for Marcel Dareus of Alabama, best known for knocking Colt McCoy out of the BCS Championship Game last season.  With Shaun Rogers owed $5.5 million next season and the Browns moving to a 4-3 defense, DT is a major need.  While DE is also a need, I think they'll choose to address the interior DL first.  Another possibility for Cleveland is the playmaking receiver from Alabama, Julio Jones.  He has underrated speed and a big body to break tackles and be a game-changing receiver in the NFL.

Alternative Selections: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama or Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

7. San Francisco: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

With the new Harbaugh regime coming in to lead the 49ers, Harbaugh will likely look to put his mark on the franchise immediately by taking a quarterback, especially seeing as he's a former quarterback.  Blaine Gabbert is pretty much the consensus #1 QB this year, although the top 3 or 4 QBs have little separating them.  Gabbert ran a spread offense in college, but has a great arm.  Him and Mallett have the best arms in the draft class and if Harbaugh runs a power-I based offense, you could see Mallett picked here.  Another possibility is to upgrade their secondary with Prince Amukamara, who is generally seen as near the equal of Patrick Peterson.

Alternative Selection: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska or Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas

8. Tennessee: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas

Tennessee will need a new coach and new QB this season as Jeff Fisher was fired and Vince Young is on the trade block or is being waived.  Similarly to San Francisco the Titans' coach will likely start his new regime with a quarterback as his first pick, and Mallett has the strongest arm in this draft class.  He can turn their offense into a more vertical-passing one, and will have one of the best deep balls in the NFL as soon as he arrives.  That arm can free up room for Chris Johnson to return to his dominance of 2009.  Cam Newton could also fit in here as he profiles similarly to Vince Young whom the Titans have worked with for five years.

Alternative Selection: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

9. Dallas: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa

Clayborn had somewhat of a down season, entering this year as a top-5 prospect, but he still played well and is in my opinion one of the most well-rounded 3-4 ends entering this draft.  Clayborn would address a major need for the Cowboys as they could lose DEs Jason Hatcher, Stephen Bowen and Marcus Spears to FA this offseason.  They could go many other routes as well, including Prince Amukamura of Nebraska should he fall this far, but I see them taking Clayborn and eliminating their DL problem.

Alternative Selection: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

10. Washington: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

Julio is a freak at wide receiver and will fill an immediate need for the Redskins.  I'd look for them to acquire a QB through free agency rather than take a risk with Newton or Locker here, if Mallett was still available I think Mike Shanahan would snatch him up immediately.  Jones is a big receiver who doesn't get enough credit for the speed he possesses because AJ Green is the faster of the top two receivers this year.  Jones can be a true #1 receiver in the NFL and should be for years to come as long as he can keep from dropping balls as he's prone to do. 

Alternative Selection: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

11. Houston: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

The Texans draft a corner with a first round pick for the first time since they drafted Dunta Robinson years ago, that worked out pretty well for them, this move will too. 

12. Minnesota: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

Minnesota could go Cam Newton here, but after drafting a project QB a few years back in Tarvaris Jackson and with another project QB in Joe Webb on their hands, it's highly doubtful they opt for yet another one.  Instead, since their DL didn't generate much pressure this year, they select Robert Quinn, who missed the whole season due to NCAA violations.  Ray Edwards may leave in free agency and Quinn offers them an opportunity to upgrade their DE spot opposite Jared Allen.

13. Detroit: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA

The Lions really could use some solid outside linebackers seeing as Julian Peterson is a shell of his former self and they haven't been able to lock anyone in at WILL LB.  Levy looks to be set at MLB should he stay healthy and the DL is set, but they should address the linebacking corps with this pick as no corners that are available are worth this high of a 1st round pick.

14. St. Louis: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois

Liuget jumped onto the scene this year, dominating at Illinois and constantly finding his way into the backfield.  We all know how much Steve Spagnuolo loved having a strong defensive line when defensive coordinator for the New York Giants.  The Rams need to address the whole DL, but I think they'll opt for a pass-rushing and disruptive DT like Liuget here before a defensive end.  This is a reach no doubt, but Spagnuolo will stick to his guns and Liuget will test well athletically.

15. Miami: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

This is the consensus pick across every mock draft.  The Dolphins lose Ronnie Brown and Ricky WIlliams to FA and it's hard to think that they'd offer Ronnie the best contract he can find on the open market after his constant injury problems.  Ingram is a tough but quick runner and would come into a starting role immediately behind a strong offensive line.  Ingram has shown he can handle a big workload, so he slots in perfectly here.

16. Jacksonville: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue 

Kerrigan won't test well by any speed or agility drill and may not look impressive strength-wise, but he's a savvy player that is relentless and finds a way to the quarterback regardless.  Kerrigan came on this year and basically was the Big Ten's 2010 version of Brandon Graham, and played well at the Senior Bowl, he'd fit in well at Jacksonville who desperately needs DE help.

17. New England (via Oakland): Cameron Jordan, DE/DT, Cal

The Patriots have two first round picks thanks to trading Richard Seymour earlier this year, and now they'll use Oakland's pick to draft Seymour's replacement, Cameron Jordan of Cal.  He dominated the Senior Bowl and was almost unblockable.  He's built similarly to Adrian Clayborn but could also play in a 4-3, making him a versatile weapon.  Slotting in Jordan right next to Wilfork would give the Pats a great DL for years to come.

18. San Diego: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh

Vincent Jackson is no doubt gone, and Malcolm Floyd can leave too in the offseason.  I commend Philip Rivers for putting up MVP-caliber numbers with Seyi Ajirotutu and Legedu Naanee as starting receivers, but to expect him to do so again is unfair.  Baldwin is a 6'5" 230 lb. receiver who offers the same physical threat in jump ball situations and the red zone that Vincent Jackson did and should fit in well with the Chargers' offense as the #2 option behind Antonio Gates.

19. New York Giants: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

The Giants couldn't protect Eli Manning as well as in years past and the running game struggled more than in years past as well, so they'll likely look to upgrade in the trenches with Nate Solder, the 6'8" 315 lb. tackle from Colorado.  Solder is a swift tackle, being a former tight end, and strong at the point of attack, he should help the Giants out immediately and could jump into a starting job next year potentially.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri

The Buccaneers have one of the worst starting pairs of defensive ends in the NFL, and Aldon Smith will be drafted to help them create an actual pass rush.  Since Simeon Rice left, the Bucs never really could find a suitable replacement and they'll hope that Aldon Smith can fill his large shoes.  Smith came on the scene as a freshman and played well this year despite injury.  He'll likely jump into an immediate starting spot here and may come off the board earlier.  He reminds scouts a lot of Jason Pierre-Paul, the Giants' 1st round pick in 2010, who was a dynamic athlete but extremely raw.  He could be great and a Pro Bowler, or could be a major bust.  

21. Kansas City Chiefs: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin

When Joe Thomas left for the NFL, Gabe Carimi was selected to fill his spot.  He did so admirably and made people forget about Joe Thomas very quickly.  Carimi is a dominating run blocker, as is typical for Badgers linemen, and did a good job protecting Scott Tolzien in the pocket.  Carimi will fit in with the run-heavy offense of the Chiefs and should start at RT in Week 1.

22. Indianapolis Colts: Derek Sherrod, OT, Miss. State

Sherrod fits the Colts' offensive philosophy and may very well be the most well-rounded offensive tackle in this draft class.  He excels in pass blocking and has the quickness to make blocks on the second level and pull outside if need be.  He should serve as a good LT for years to come for Peyton in Indianapolis.

23. Philadelphia Eagles: Anthony Costanzo, OT, Boston College

Andy Reid loves using his first pick on players in the trenches, and this year the offensive line is priority #1.  Michael Vick's frail build can't survive the same amount of hits he took this year, and the Eagles need to protect their franchise QB far better this year or he won't be their franchise QB much longer.  Costanzo is a good but not great tackle, but that's about the best the Eagles can expect here.  I'd expect them to trade up and go for a Sherrod or Solder, Philly usually makes waves on draft day.

24. New Orleans Saints: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State

The Saints' DL production dipped this season, a major reason their defense fell off in a big way.  Paea would probably be generating interest in the top half of the 1st round should he have finished the year healthy, but his knee injury will send him backwards in round 1.  He's a good value here to fit in alongside Sedrick Ellis and help the Saints generate more pressure up the middle on quarterbacks.

25. Seattle Seahawks: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Newton or Locker here?  Not even close as far as talent goes, Newton's the better QB.  Locker however does have two years of pro-style offense experience under Steve Sarkisian who worked with Leinart before going to Washington, and he's the hometown kid.  Wouldn't be shocking to see Locker go here, but the only way the Seahawks can really pull the trigger on that is if Newton's gone first, which in this scenario didn't happen.

26. Baltimore Ravens: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (FL)

The Ravens are desperate at corner, and only Ed Reed is singlehandedly keeping them from having the worst secondary in football.  This is EASILY their most pressing needs and Ozzie Newsome would be an idiot to not draft corner first round.  Brandon Harris and Aaron Williams will both be considered here, but I think Harris gets the nod.

27. Atlanta Falcons: Allen Bailey, DE, Miami (FL)

Allen Bailey is a physical freak and exactly the pass-rushing complement the Falcons need on the opposite side of an effective, albeit aging John Abraham.  The dynamic athlete at defensive end may even be able to kick inside to DT on 3rd downs as well, making him a versatile weapon for the Falcons' defense.

28. New England Patriots: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia

The Patriots could use a rush linebacker that's not Tully Banta-Cain, simple as that.  Houston will fill the slot opposite Jermaine Cunningham for the Pats' 3-4 defense.

29. Chicago Bears: Tyron Smith, OT, USC

The Bears desperately need OL help, although they pulled things together at the end of the season, their OL still got destroyed for the most part over the year and Jay Cutler took 50+ sacks over the season.  Tyron Smith has the POTENTIAL to be a good right tackle and possibly even a left tackle but is a definite project.  At 6'2" and 280-something, he needs to add about 30 pounds and maintain his quickness if he's to be a good left tackle.  My guess is he adds about 15 pounds and plays an undersized right tackle in the NFL.

30. New York Jets: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor

Taylor dominated the Senior Bowl and is a good nose tackle prospect.  He moved up from a 2nd-3rd round prospect to the low 1st round with his outstanding performance and with Kris Jenkins constantly injured, the Jets fill a major need here.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kendric Burney, CB, North Carolina

Burney also had a great performance in the Senior Bowl that helped make for the half season he missed along with many other Tar Heels due to NCAA violations.  Burney was dominant throughout the week and played well to close the 2010 season.  He's only 5'9" but he's a ballhawk and should help the Steelers out immediately.  Also under consideration here will be help along the OL (Mike Pouncey to play alongside his brother just like in college would be interesting), but after the passing clinic Aaron Rodgers put on against them in the Super Bowl, CB seems to be the most pressing need.

32. Green Bay Packers: Mike Pouncey, G, Florida

The Packers don't have an OL capable of run blocking, as evidenced by their mere 11 rushing attempts during the Super Bowl.  Even Andy Reid thinks they need to run the ball more than 20% of the time.  If they want Aaron Rodgers to not have to shoulder the entire load of the offense in the future, it's time to upgrade the offensive line.  They could use help at tackle and guard, but when choosing between the sixth best offensive tackle and their choice of any draftable guard, they'll likely go with the interior line help and select Mike Pouncey of Florida.  

Free Agency Recap: Detroit Tigers

One year removed from a loss in the 12th inning of Game 163 costing the Tigers a playoff berth, they took a step back, falling to 81-81 for the 2010 season.  The acquisitions of Phil Coke, Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson, and Daniel Schlereth were good ones and all are expected to be major MLB contributors this season besides Schlereth.  However, while Coke and Scherzer performed admirably, the offensive ineptitude, especially with runners in scoring position, was largely pointed to as the prime reason for the Tigers' regression.   Rookies Brennan Boesch and Austin Jackson fell off in the second half of the season, largely depleting the offensive punch the Tigers displayed in the season's first half.


GM Dave Dombrowski quickly moved this offseason to improve the offense, signing one of the premier hitters available in Victor Martinez, and moved to solidify the pitching staff by adding Joaquin Benoit in what surprisingly was only the second most expensive setup-man contract handed out this offseason.


Good Decisions:


Signing Magglio Ordoñez (1 year, $10 million):


Magglio is a fan favorite in Motown, and there was no question in my mind that he was coming back, as I detailed in my first blog post:


I got the cost right per year, but the Tigers managed to get Magglio for a one-year deal since he struggled with injuries last year, which is even better for them.  If he produces a statline similar to the above, he'll probably be about a 4 WAR player, and will easily earn that $10 million contract. 


Signing Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Inge (2 years, $11.25 million and 2 years, $11.5 million)


Detroit's always been a loyal team to its players, and for that reason, I was not surprised in the least that Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Inge will be manning the left side of the infield for the next two seasons.  Inge is a great fielder and Peralta not so much, so Inge's range slightly helps make up for Peralta's lack of it.  While Inge's fielding skills and batting skills are declining, he still is a decent enough player that he'll earn his payday, even while suffering at the plate.  Jhonny Peralta had a down year the past two years, and may have simply lost his power at the plate, as his SLG% dropped below .400 over the past two seasons.  If Peralta can rediscover the gaps in Comerica Park, hitting a lot of doubles, and slam out 10-15 HRs, his bat should be enough to make up for his defense, making him a worthy choice at SS. 

Signing Joaquin Benoit (3 years, $16.5 million):


Yet another fireballing bullpen pitcher will be joining the Tigers this season, this time it's Joaquin Benoit, coming off a career- best season with the Tampa Bay Rays.  Last year he struck out more than a batter an inning (11.19 K/9) while pitching to a 1.34 ERA (2.43 FIP) in 60.1 innings.  As a result of his mastery on the mound, Benoit left over 95% of batters on base to end innings.  The MLB average for Left On Base % (LOB%) usually hovers around 70%, and Benoit has never posted a LOB% higher than 78.1% prior.  This means we can expect to see some regression from Benoit, probably to around a 3 ERA over the season, which is still extremely useful.  He's struggled with injury, missing all of 2009 due to injury, but came back better than ever in 2010, with the same velocity and stuff.


If Benoit can remain healthy for the duration of the deal, even as a reliever, he'll earn 1.5-2 WAR a season, making him well worth the money spent. 

The Jury's Still Out On:


Signing Victor Martinez as the primary DH (4 years, $50 million
Victor Martinez is no doubt a phenomenal hitter, and a great addition to the Tigers lineup.  However, his signing and accompanying pricetag are concerning from a value perspective. 


In V-Mart's career thus far, he's performed abysmally at Comerica Park, hitting .225/.321/.349 in 169 at bats.  Martinez readily admits that he's not a power hitter, and won't hit more than twenty, but seems to think his skill set can translate to Comerica and attributes his lack of success to the Tigers pitching:

Martinez is quick to credit Detroit’s pitchers for that—and now he won’t have to face them anymore. As for the ballpark’s effect on his home run total, he’ll just try to hit the ball to the gaps and see what happens.

“I say myself, I’m not a home run hitter. I hit my 20, but I’m more a line drive hitter,” Martinez said. “I might hit some triples. Watch out.”

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Year 5	G	R	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2005	147	73	20	80	.305	.378	.475	.853	130
2006	153	82	16	93	.316	.391	.465	.856	122
2007	147	78	25	114	.301	.374	.505	.879	129
2009	155	88	23	108	.303	.381	.480	.861	126
2010	127	64	20	79	.302	.351	.493	.844	122
162 Game Avg.	162	82	21	103	.300	.369	.469	.838	121

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/24/2011.

As we can see, Martinez has consistently posted strong OPS+ numbers (again remembering 100 is league average), and is one of the more consistent hitters in baseball.  I omitted 2008 as V-Mart struggled dealing with injuries that season and it was an aberration from his career to date.


The best situation to compare V-Mart's to is probably Jorge Posada.  Both are primary DHs but will end up catching 50+ games to take the load off of the young prospects at catcher.  Fangraphs.com adds/subtracts runs from a players Runs Above Replacement (RAR) rating based on where they played, and that number of RAR will almost directly correspond to the player's WAR. Generally if a player is 10 runs above average, they have a WAR of approximately 1, meaning they contributed one  win for their team more than a replacement-level player would have done.


Martinez has produced two straight 4.0 WAR seasons, and hopefully he can maintain that level for the first two years of the contract.  However, as a DH, he simply isn't as valuable as if he were a catcher, so if he declines in the back end of the contract, this deal will seem iffy.


We'll see what happens, if I had to choose either way, I still like the deal, but I really wish the Tigers would have paid $6 million more and gotten Adam Dunn to be our primary DH.


Best Bargain: Brad Penny (1 year, $3 million):


The Tigers' back end of the rotation was deplorable last year and they attempted to address it this year, by moving Phil Coke to the rotation, as well as bringing Brad Penny on board.  Penny made the All Star Team in 2006 and 2007, and struggled throughout 2008 and '09.  In 2010, Penny went to St. Louis to work with the pitching mastermind, Dave Duncan, and added a deadly splitter to his repertoire that was one of the best itches in baseball prior to Penny missing the rest of the season with injury.


Dave Duncan preaches forcing ground balls to his pitchers, and Wainwright, Carpenter, and Joel Pineiro all did that quite well last season, and Penny subscribed to the same formula for success.  He induced groundballs 52.8% of the time, and reduced the amount of walks he handed out per nine innings, as well as HRs surrendered per nine innings. 


If Penny produces like he did last season in his short season with a 3.23 ERA (3.40 FIP), the Tigers will be ecstatic.  Even if he falls off to about a 4.00 ERA or those whereabouts, that would be just fine for a 4th or 5th starter, which is all Penny is expected to be this year.  He does have to stay healthy, which he's always struggled with, but overall this is a great signing here by the Tigers, that at worst, backfires for a loss of $3 million.


Grade: B+


The Tigers were aggressive this offseason and knew they wanted Victor Martinez from the start.  He adds more Venezuelan influence to the lockerroom, creating even more chemistry within the Venezuelan group of hitters (Magglio, Guillen, Miguel Cabrera).  He solidifies the middle of the lineup, and while I would have preferred Adam Dunn, V-Mart is a fine consolation prize, and hopefully can help Alex Avila improve as well.  Brad Penny was a great bargain bin signing and a marked improvement over Armando Galaragga, and Joaquin Benoit gives the Tigers a reliable set-up man.  Dombrowski isn't prepared to count on Zumaya and/or Perry to be a consistent 8th inning option, but Benoit can.  The Tigers' bullpen is now deeper and hopefully can perform the way it did in the first half of 2010.  Lastly, the Tigers brought back Inge and Peralta on 2-year deals, mostly due to lack of alternatives at their positions.


I still think V-Mart needs to be playing catcher more often than 2-3 times a week, and that Adam Dunn was a better option to sign.  However, that being the only "drawback" that I see in free agency, the Tigers get a solid B+, and helped themselves out quite a bit this offseason.

Free Agency Recap: Los Angeles Angels

Good Decisions:

Signing Scott Downs (3 years, $15 million):

The Blue Jays made a big mistake letting Scott Downs hit the free agent market, and the Angels have reaped the benefits.  Scott Downs has quietly been one of the best and most consistent relievers in baseball over the past four seasons. 

He's posted ERAs of 2.17 (3.24 FIP), 1.78 (3.39 FIP), 3.09 (3.33 FIP), and 2.64 (3.03 FIP) over the past four years.  It's extremely difficult to post FIPs as low as Downs' ERA has been, so don't think that he's merely an overachiever due to the difference.  Downs posts insanely high ground ball rates year-in and year-out, ranging from 55.7% to 65.6% over the past four years.  As that would lead you to expect, Downs rarely gives up home runs, surrendering only 13 total over the past four seasons.  Downs pitches to contact, largely utilizing his fastball, last season almost 76% of the time.  The fastball is complemented by two other "plus" (in other words, above-average) pitches in his slider and curveball.  As a lefty, Downs has dominated left-handed batters, and hasn't allowed righties to hit over .250 against him over the past few seasons, so he's still even kept righties in line.

Downs hasn't ever had a long-term closing role, but he's probably in line to win the job on the Angels' pitching staff.   He's a contact pitcher, but seeing as he's a ground-ball pitcher, he should fare fine if thrust into the closer role.  The only other real option is Fernando Rodney, who as you may remember from his time as a Tiger, has electric stuff but is inconsistent to put it lightly.

Downs was a fantastic signing, and may actually be the best reliever signing of the entire offseason.  While the Angels did surrender a second round pick as compensation for signing the Type A free agent (their first round pick was protected), Downs should produce about 1+ WAR per season, making the signing a solid one, and one likely to recoup value equal to what Downs is paid.

Signing Hisanori Takahashi (2 years, $8 million):

Takahashi was a nice pickup, although he only has one year of experience, his 122 innings were solid overall.  Coming overseas last season to pitch for the Mets, Takahashi pitched in 53 games, 12 of them as a starter, pitching to a 3.61 ERA and 3.65 FIP.  fangraphs.com pointed out that he performed even more admirably in his "rookie season" as a reliever:

Also, Takahashi’s numbers were much better in relief. In 57.1 relief innings, he had a 9.42 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 2.59 FIP and 3.54 xFIP.

He has five pitches at his arsenal, but mostly operates with his fastball, slider, and changeup.  Batters seemed to sit on his fastball, since it was a below average pitch overall, but his slider was above average and his changeup was phenomenal.  Overall, Takahashi had above average control, only walking 2.61 per nine innings and allowed just about one HR every nine innings. 

Takahashi amassed 1.6 WAR over the season, and should provide about 1 WAR per season should he be utilized only as a reliever, which is expected given that the Angels' rotation is seemingly already set.  If Takahashi is inserted into the starting rotation, he may have a better chance to give the Angels a positive return on their investment, but regardless, his signing will benefit the Angels' back end of the bullpen.

Not Signing Adrian Beltre or Carl Crawford:

For the prices Beltre and Crawford were being paid, the Angels simply couldn't afford to sign them to such bloated salaries.  The Angels operate at a lower financial level than the Red Sox and at a similar one to the Rangers.  We'll probably see the Rangers struggling financially due to Beltre's bloated salary in a few years, similarly to how Michael Young's $16 million salary is weighing down their short-term options currently, preventing them from re-signing Vladimir Guerrero, since they have to play Michael Young somewhere (DH this year which was Guerrero's spot last season) to justify his massive pay. 


The Angels didn't come away with one of the big-name FAs, but for their financial sake, it's probably a good thing they didn't.

Bad Decisions:

Trading Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera for Vernon Wells


The Angels put themselves in competition with the Washington Nationals and Texas Rangers for most desperate acquisition this offseason.  The Angels missed out on Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre (for good reason, both were overpriced as could be), and refused to end this offseason without making a "big move".  So their idea of a big move was taking on one of the worst contracts in baseball by acquiring Vernon Wells and his 4 years and $86 million left on his contract.

Wells in 2007 and 2009 was a horrific underachiever, while he posted solid numbers in 2008 and 2010.  Even his good seasons left something to be desired however.  In both '07 and '09, Wells posted extremely low HR/FB rates (home runs hit/fly balls hit), half as low as the 14% rates in his '08 and '10 seasons.

Below are his statistics from 2003-2010:

Year	BA	lgBA	OBP	lgOBP	SLG	lgSLG	OPS	lgOPS	OPS+
2003	.317	.272	.359	.339	.550	.436	.909	.775	132
2004	.272	.275	.337	.344	.472	.442	.809	.786	105
2005	.269	.270	.320	.334	.463	.429	.783	.762	104
2006	.303	.275	.357	.340	.542	.438	.899	.778	129
2007	.245	.271	.304	.338	.402	.424	.706	.762	85
2008	.300	.266	.343	.333	.496	.417	.840	.751	122
2009	.260	.267	.311	.336	.400	.429	.711	.765	86
2010	.273	.260	.331	.328	.515	.408	.847	.736	127

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/24/2011.

As you can see, this table puts Vernon Wells' yearly BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS up against what a league average hitter would have done.  In 2007 and 2009, we can see that Wells underacehived in BA, and to a much further extent in OBP, falling 34 points and 25 points below the league OBP respectively in those years.  Even his slugging percentages fell more than 20 points below the league adjusted SLG%. 

His defense has also fallen off the past three years, as he's posted negative defensive ratings by almost every notable defensive statistic across the board in CF for the Blue Jays in 2008-2010.   

Wells doesn't seem to provide much of a middle ground anymore.  He's a very impatient hitter, who while he makes contact quite often with pitches he swings at, will suffer if his flyballs aren't going for home runs.  Reasonably, Wells would be projected for about .270/.330/.450, and an OPS+ around 100, but his career arc over the past 5 years doesn't seem to make that a realistic possibility.  The only seasons that Wells has even neared a WAR rating that made a $20+ million salary seem slightly worthwhile were his career year in 2006 (5.7 WAR which equated  to about a worth of $21.3 million), and last season (4.0 WAR, worth about $15.9 million).  Wells basically needs to hit about 30 HRs, hit .300, and OPS about .850 with strong defense in CF to even make his contract worthwhile, which just isn't a reality for him anymore.  If the Angels had gotten the Blue Jays to even pay a quarter of the 86 million remaining over 4 years, they would have only had to pay Wells 16.125 mil per year, and the amount they would pay Wells could fall more in line with what his production merits.  It's still highly doubtful that the trade would end up being worth it however. 

The Angels lose two of their middle-of-the-order hitters in C Mike Napoli (who has been a more valuable hitter than Wells over the past three years easily), and DH/OF Juan Rivera.  Now the Angels turn to prized prospect C Hank Conger to anchor their staff and hopefully provide some pop behind the plate similarly to Mike Napoli's production, or else their lineup will suffer with Jeff Mathis' poor bat behind the plate.  They may expect Mike Trout, another prized prospect who is in the outfield, to play at the MLB level as well, in replacement of Rivera, but only time will tell if that takes place. 

Grade: D

The Angels didn't sign a big name free agent, which is what they came into this offseason with the mindset of doing.  Leading up to free agency, the Angels were reportedly interested in both Adrian Beltre AND Carl Crawford and it was all but assumed they would get at least one of the two.  While I think it's probably a good thing they didn't sign either of the big names,  Instead of signing a big-name free agent however, they took on one of the worst contracts in baseball in Vernon Wells who will have to move to a corner OF spot, further decreasing his value to the team.  The Angels completely panicked and made this move for the sake of change, and lost one of their most valuable hitters in Mike Napoli as a result.

While I like the Downs and Takahashi signings, this Vernon Wells trade has literally no rhyme or reason behind it.   If not for the Angels signing the two relievers, they would receive an F for the offseason, because the Vernon Wells trade is one of the more questionable trades in recent MLB history.