Free Agency Recap: Detroit Tigers

One year removed from a loss in the 12th inning of Game 163 costing the Tigers a playoff berth, they took a step back, falling to 81-81 for the 2010 season.  The acquisitions of Phil Coke, Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson, and Daniel Schlereth were good ones and all are expected to be major MLB contributors this season besides Schlereth.  However, while Coke and Scherzer performed admirably, the offensive ineptitude, especially with runners in scoring position, was largely pointed to as the prime reason for the Tigers' regression.   Rookies Brennan Boesch and Austin Jackson fell off in the second half of the season, largely depleting the offensive punch the Tigers displayed in the season's first half.


GM Dave Dombrowski quickly moved this offseason to improve the offense, signing one of the premier hitters available in Victor Martinez, and moved to solidify the pitching staff by adding Joaquin Benoit in what surprisingly was only the second most expensive setup-man contract handed out this offseason.


Good Decisions:


Signing Magglio Ordoñez (1 year, $10 million):


Magglio is a fan favorite in Motown, and there was no question in my mind that he was coming back, as I detailed in my first blog post:


I got the cost right per year, but the Tigers managed to get Magglio for a one-year deal since he struggled with injuries last year, which is even better for them.  If he produces a statline similar to the above, he'll probably be about a 4 WAR player, and will easily earn that $10 million contract. 


Signing Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Inge (2 years, $11.25 million and 2 years, $11.5 million)


Detroit's always been a loyal team to its players, and for that reason, I was not surprised in the least that Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Inge will be manning the left side of the infield for the next two seasons.  Inge is a great fielder and Peralta not so much, so Inge's range slightly helps make up for Peralta's lack of it.  While Inge's fielding skills and batting skills are declining, he still is a decent enough player that he'll earn his payday, even while suffering at the plate.  Jhonny Peralta had a down year the past two years, and may have simply lost his power at the plate, as his SLG% dropped below .400 over the past two seasons.  If Peralta can rediscover the gaps in Comerica Park, hitting a lot of doubles, and slam out 10-15 HRs, his bat should be enough to make up for his defense, making him a worthy choice at SS. 

Signing Joaquin Benoit (3 years, $16.5 million):


Yet another fireballing bullpen pitcher will be joining the Tigers this season, this time it's Joaquin Benoit, coming off a career- best season with the Tampa Bay Rays.  Last year he struck out more than a batter an inning (11.19 K/9) while pitching to a 1.34 ERA (2.43 FIP) in 60.1 innings.  As a result of his mastery on the mound, Benoit left over 95% of batters on base to end innings.  The MLB average for Left On Base % (LOB%) usually hovers around 70%, and Benoit has never posted a LOB% higher than 78.1% prior.  This means we can expect to see some regression from Benoit, probably to around a 3 ERA over the season, which is still extremely useful.  He's struggled with injury, missing all of 2009 due to injury, but came back better than ever in 2010, with the same velocity and stuff.


If Benoit can remain healthy for the duration of the deal, even as a reliever, he'll earn 1.5-2 WAR a season, making him well worth the money spent. 

The Jury's Still Out On:


Signing Victor Martinez as the primary DH (4 years, $50 million
Victor Martinez is no doubt a phenomenal hitter, and a great addition to the Tigers lineup.  However, his signing and accompanying pricetag are concerning from a value perspective. 


In V-Mart's career thus far, he's performed abysmally at Comerica Park, hitting .225/.321/.349 in 169 at bats.  Martinez readily admits that he's not a power hitter, and won't hit more than twenty, but seems to think his skill set can translate to Comerica and attributes his lack of success to the Tigers pitching:

Martinez is quick to credit Detroit’s pitchers for that—and now he won’t have to face them anymore. As for the ballpark’s effect on his home run total, he’ll just try to hit the ball to the gaps and see what happens.

“I say myself, I’m not a home run hitter. I hit my 20, but I’m more a line drive hitter,” Martinez said. “I might hit some triples. Watch out.”

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Year 5	G	R	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2005	147	73	20	80	.305	.378	.475	.853	130
2006	153	82	16	93	.316	.391	.465	.856	122
2007	147	78	25	114	.301	.374	.505	.879	129
2009	155	88	23	108	.303	.381	.480	.861	126
2010	127	64	20	79	.302	.351	.493	.844	122
162 Game Avg.	162	82	21	103	.300	.369	.469	.838	121

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/24/2011.

As we can see, Martinez has consistently posted strong OPS+ numbers (again remembering 100 is league average), and is one of the more consistent hitters in baseball.  I omitted 2008 as V-Mart struggled dealing with injuries that season and it was an aberration from his career to date.


The best situation to compare V-Mart's to is probably Jorge Posada.  Both are primary DHs but will end up catching 50+ games to take the load off of the young prospects at catcher.  Fangraphs.com adds/subtracts runs from a players Runs Above Replacement (RAR) rating based on where they played, and that number of RAR will almost directly correspond to the player's WAR. Generally if a player is 10 runs above average, they have a WAR of approximately 1, meaning they contributed one  win for their team more than a replacement-level player would have done.


Martinez has produced two straight 4.0 WAR seasons, and hopefully he can maintain that level for the first two years of the contract.  However, as a DH, he simply isn't as valuable as if he were a catcher, so if he declines in the back end of the contract, this deal will seem iffy.


We'll see what happens, if I had to choose either way, I still like the deal, but I really wish the Tigers would have paid $6 million more and gotten Adam Dunn to be our primary DH.


Best Bargain: Brad Penny (1 year, $3 million):


The Tigers' back end of the rotation was deplorable last year and they attempted to address it this year, by moving Phil Coke to the rotation, as well as bringing Brad Penny on board.  Penny made the All Star Team in 2006 and 2007, and struggled throughout 2008 and '09.  In 2010, Penny went to St. Louis to work with the pitching mastermind, Dave Duncan, and added a deadly splitter to his repertoire that was one of the best itches in baseball prior to Penny missing the rest of the season with injury.


Dave Duncan preaches forcing ground balls to his pitchers, and Wainwright, Carpenter, and Joel Pineiro all did that quite well last season, and Penny subscribed to the same formula for success.  He induced groundballs 52.8% of the time, and reduced the amount of walks he handed out per nine innings, as well as HRs surrendered per nine innings. 


If Penny produces like he did last season in his short season with a 3.23 ERA (3.40 FIP), the Tigers will be ecstatic.  Even if he falls off to about a 4.00 ERA or those whereabouts, that would be just fine for a 4th or 5th starter, which is all Penny is expected to be this year.  He does have to stay healthy, which he's always struggled with, but overall this is a great signing here by the Tigers, that at worst, backfires for a loss of $3 million.


Grade: B+


The Tigers were aggressive this offseason and knew they wanted Victor Martinez from the start.  He adds more Venezuelan influence to the lockerroom, creating even more chemistry within the Venezuelan group of hitters (Magglio, Guillen, Miguel Cabrera).  He solidifies the middle of the lineup, and while I would have preferred Adam Dunn, V-Mart is a fine consolation prize, and hopefully can help Alex Avila improve as well.  Brad Penny was a great bargain bin signing and a marked improvement over Armando Galaragga, and Joaquin Benoit gives the Tigers a reliable set-up man.  Dombrowski isn't prepared to count on Zumaya and/or Perry to be a consistent 8th inning option, but Benoit can.  The Tigers' bullpen is now deeper and hopefully can perform the way it did in the first half of 2010.  Lastly, the Tigers brought back Inge and Peralta on 2-year deals, mostly due to lack of alternatives at their positions.


I still think V-Mart needs to be playing catcher more often than 2-3 times a week, and that Adam Dunn was a better option to sign.  However, that being the only "drawback" that I see in free agency, the Tigers get a solid B+, and helped themselves out quite a bit this offseason.

Explaining Baseball Statistics: BABIP

In these segments, I'll explain what the statistics really mean, so that when baseball season comes around, readers can understand the statistics I'm using and what I'm trying to communicate with them.

BABIP: (Batting Average on Balls In Play)

BABIP is literally as simple as it sounds.  It's a player's batting average only calculated from at bats where the ball was put in play on the field.  The formula for BABIP is:

Home Runs are exempt from the formula, as they're technically out of play.  Strikeouts obviously are not taken into account, as the ball is not put into play.  If a player hits a sacrifice fly in an at bat(SF), on the box score, the player is technically 0-0 for that at bat.  It still counts as an at bat but it doesn't affect the batting average, so it's also subtracted.  As those three results aren't taken into account, every other possible result at the plate for a hitter is determined by the defense.  BABIP really in essence shows how often a player is getting on base when they make contact, and if they're doing so more or less often than is normal.  A player's BABIP will likely be higher when playing against a poor defense, and will likely go down if playing against MLB's best defense as a result. 

League average BABIP for hitters and against pitchers is generally about .300, and fell to .297 last year, as pitchers performed better across the league.  Generally, players who have a BABIP of .280 or lower are considered to be "unlucky", while players with a BABIP higher than about .315 or .320 are considered "lucky".  Pitchers with a .280 BABIP against, conversely, are generally considered "lucky", and "unlucky" if it hovers above .315 or so.

Over the past few years, The Tigers have had some pretty drastic examples of overachieving players where BABIP can be pointed to as the primary reason for/indicator of their successes; the primary examples being Austin Jackson in 2010 and Armando Galarraga in 2008.
Last season, Austin Jackson had a tremendous rookie season, playing near Gold Glove caliber defense in CF, and hitting .300 for nearly the whole season, while leading all rookies in hits.  However, his astronomically high .396 BABIP shows us that he's not going to be repeating that feat.  He easily had the highest BABIP in MLB, and there are a few factors to point to that explain this.  First off, he is a speedy hitter, and is able to run out a lot of ground balls and bunts for singles, a la Carl Crawford.  Combined in 2010, 25 of Jackson's 181 hits were infield hits, the fourth highest in baseball, and one of the highest ratios.  (If you're curious, Ichiro led in infield hits).  For this reason alone, his BABIP will likely always be above .300, and probably hover around at least .330 or .340, but not at the unreal level of .396.  So what gives?  The other proponent of Jackson's high BABIP was his astronomical rate of hitting line drives.  According to The Hardball Times (thehardballtimes.com):

"Line drives are not necessarily the hardest hit balls, but they do fall for a hit around 75% of the time."

Given the fact that MLB hitters hit .750 on average when hitting line drives, it makes sense that their average would rise astronomically if they hit a high amount of line drives, which Jackson did.  Jackson had the third highest LD% in baseball at 24%, right behind Joe Mauer, former AL batting champ.  He also hit only 48% of balls for ground balls, which is easily the lowest among the leaders in infield hits.  He also hit a low amount of fly balls, 28% over the course of the year.  This means that Austin maximized his probability of getting hits to about the highest level any player in MLB possibly could, and did it while hitting only four home runs. 

To a speedy player with little power like Austin Jackson, flyballs are his worst enemy.  His speed can't combat a popout like it can a groundout or line drive.  He has a chance to run out either of those at bats and when 72% of his at bats are one of those scenarios, it's going to benefit him.  Jackson has always had a high BABIP throughout his minor league career, but never consistently to this level, and it was against minor league talent, which ultimately is a level below MLB to say the least.  I would expect Jackson's BABIP to remain high, but his batting average this year to drop, to around .270 or .280.

Another example was Armando Galarraga in 2008.  The pitcher had a wonderful season, pitching to a 3.73 ERA and going 13-7 on the season.  Many people thought that Galarraga would continue posting similar seasons, but as I explained in a previous blog post a couple years back, he was a prime candidate to regress:

Armando Galaragga is the lone pitching bright spot of last year, who benefitted from an abnormally low BABIP. His .250 BABIP against was the third lowest of any MLB starter which is a damning statistic. Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) takes strikeouts and walks out of the equation and calculates batting average solely from contact in at-bats for a hitter or against a pitcher. League average for BABIP against is .301. He is not an overpowering pitcher, throwing 90-92, and never had MLB success prior to last year. His strikeout and walk rates are completely average, and he left over 75% of his runners on base, when the league average is 70%. Even more alarming is that this .250 BABIP came with the defense of Carlos Guillen, Edgar Renteria, and Miguel Cabrera behind him. Galaragga still somehow managed to have one of the biggest fluke years in MLB last year with one of the poorer infield defensive groupings in the league behind him. I'd look for his ERA to skyrocket to around 4.25-4.5 this year, and he will be a far less effective pitcher.

As you can see, Galarraga had a lot of warning signs in 2008 to go along with his great season.  He forced a career high level of ground balls, and somehow his slider was the best of any pitcher's that year according to statistics on Fangraphs.com.  He hasn't ever returned to any of those rates, and since he isn't that overpowering pitcher who helps himself out with strikeouts, and actually pitches to contact, he fell back to a 5.64 ERA in '09, had a 4.49 ERA in '10, and looks to be out of the rotation altogether in 2011 now that Brad Penny has been signed.

However, BABIP isn't a solution all in itself to explain a player's down year or career season.

Let's take a look at Miguel Cabrera for example.  His career BA and BABIP are set side-by-side in this chart.

As you can see, Miguel Cabrera has never had a BABIP of .300 or below, which given the above information could lead you to believe he's "lucky" at the plate.  However, his consistency demonstrates otherwise.  Cabrera's BABIP actually is one of the 20 highest ever over a career.     

Cabrera will always have a high BABIP, mainly because he'll always hit for a high average.  The elite hitters will almost always have a higher one, and vice versa for poor hitters.

To sum it up, BABIP can be a very useful statistic to help explain a struggling/overachieving season by a hitter or pitcher.  It takes the defense behind a pitcher/against a hitter into account by ruling out all results where the defense doesn't factor in, which adds to the "luck" factor often associated with BABIP.  Blindly saying that a player's BABIP is high so he'll regress isn't always true, so it's not a be-all, end-all statistic.  However, it's a useful indicator of potential overachieving/underachieving as a whole.  It helps us as fans focus in on the usual culprits of abnormal BABIPs for hitters (Line Drive %, Ground Ball %, Infield Hits, etc.) and pitchers (Left on Base %, Line Drive %, Ground Ball %, poor defense behind the pitcher, etc.), and better explain a non-elite player's career year, whether good or bad.

With One OF Spot Left, Who Should the Tigers Sign?

The Detroit Tigers have been one of the more active teams thus far in 2010-11 Free Agency, but according to Dave Dombrowski they look to be nearly finished revamping the lineup itself.

Coming from the Detroit Free Press:

"We think Raburn will step up," Dombrowski said. "So we're only talking about one other spot in the lineup — because as you look at the infield being settled, catching being settled, DH being settled, now you're talking about the outfield.

"We'll have to analyze if it's where we go with what we have within, how do we supplement it — we'll have to sit back and decide that."

From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20101129/SPORTS0104/11290381/Ryan-Raburn-looking-like-Tigers%E2%80%99-starting-left-fielder#ixzz16n0Pbkyx

According to this quote, right field would be the "one other spot" to address on offense with the following players already fixtures at their positions:

(Starter/Backup)
C: Alex Avila/Victor Martinez
1B: Miguel Cabrera/Victor Martinez
2B: Carlos Guillen/Danny Worth, Scott Sizemore, Ramon Santiago
SS: Jhonny Peralta/Danny Worth or Ramon Santiago
3B: Brandon Inge/ Don Kelly (*barf*)
LF: Ryan Raburn/Brennan Boesch
CF: Austin Jackson
RF: ??????


With the position in question, I'll explore five potential names we could see play there next year.

1.  Magglio Ordonez: Hey, a familiar face!  I really don't believe that the Tigers are going to be able to go outside the organization to bring in a new outfielder for 2011 even though they'll try their hardest.  Magglio is a fan favorite and was the second most productive Tiger (behind Miguel Cabrera) in April and May before injuries de-railed his season.  In his resurgent season, he produced a .303/.378/.474 slash line  (BA/OBP/SLG) and .852 OPS, for a total of 2.5 WAR in only 84 games.  Had Magglio played approximately 150 games, Magglio himself would have been worth 4.5 to 5 wins above an average MLB player, hitting near 20 HRs and driving in nearly 90 runs. 

To expect that level of production from him is a bit outlandish, as he's 36 years old and health has been a problem for him in Detroit the past couple years, but he can still be a very productive batter and average fielder for 120-130 games.  Additionally, he would come at a fair price, (possibly even a hometown discount) and could help protect Miguel Cabrera in the lineup at least through this season.

Projected Cost: 2 years, $20 million
Projected Team: Detroit Tigers
Projected Production (130 games): .300/.365/.450 (.805 OPS), 15 HR, 85 RBI, 80 R


 2. Jayson Werth

Jayson Werth's transformation into a star player almost as soon as he arrived in Philadelphia is remarkable and was a major reason that the Phillies were able to win a World Series, and return in 2009.  Over the past two seasons, Jayson Werth has averaged the following:

155 G, 563 AB, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 14 SB, 102 R, .282/.381/.519 (.900 OPS), 5 WAR.

Werth has produced one of the most complete statlines in baseball over the past two seasons and would be a welcome addition to any lineup.  However, he carries quite a hefty pricetag with him, a below average to average glove at the position, and a tendency to strike out quite a bit (although that's offset by his high OBP).  As the second most prized FA outfielder this offseason behind Carl Crawford, and a Scott Boras client, Werth is getting paid, bigtime.  The Tigers lost $30 million as an organization in 2009, and probably close to that in 2010, so bringing on this much payroll long-term may not be realistic.
Projected Cost: 5 years, $85 million
Projected Statistics in 2011: Near his averages of 2009-10.
Projected Team: Boston Red Sox, to replace J.D. Drew's injury-prone self.

3.  Carl Crawford

Crawford is the most sought after offensive player on the market this offseason, and would bring along with him an element that the Tigers solely lack, speed on the basepaths.  Crawford had a career year last season, of course in his contract year.  Crawford finally put together all the skills that people have always believed he possessed, hitting 19 HR, driving in 90 runs, and stealing 47 bags, while winning his first career Gold Glove.  Crawford couldn't have capitalized at a better time, as he's in line for a HUGE payday.  He's a consistent .300 hitter, a great fielder, and a menace on the basepaths, all three of which the Tigers need.

Having said that, Crawford is being pursued heavily by the Los Angeles Angels, and probably will end up signing there.  He's going to command a massive payday, second only to Cliff Lee this offseason, and probably is out of the Tigers' price range, for good reason as he'll be highly overpaid for his services by year 3 or 4 of the contract.  I personally believe last year was a career year for Carl Crawford and he won't approach that type of production again from the plate.  He'll still be a very solid player, and while Carl Crawford and Austin Jackson at the top of the lineup would be a dynamic combination that would scare pitchers, it's not very likely. 

Projected Cost:   6 years, $110 million
Projected Team: Los Angeles Angels
Projected Stats in 2011: .300/.350/.450 (.820 OPS), 15 HR, 70 RBI, 60 SB, 110 R

4. Johnny Damon

While unlikely, Damon would be a cheap and friendly filler for the RF job.  If he gets this job, he would likely split time with Brennan Boesch because of his age.  Damon's poor throwing arm would be a big liability in RF, and at best, he's a slightly above average hitter now.  He wouldn't take much money to get, but if they're going to go this route, they may as well just give the job to Brennan Boesch and Casper Wells.

Projected Cost: 1 year, $3 million
Projected Team: New York Yankees if they don't re-sign Lance Berkman, otherwise the Kansas City Royals.
Projected Stats:  Likely will be bench player/"good clubhouse influence".  Stands a chance at starting should he go back to his initial team, Kansas City.

5. Adam Dunn

If Adam Dunn did come to Detroit, he surely wouldn't be playing right field.  He's a pretty bad fielder, and can't be slotted at 1B since Miguel Cabrera is there.  Dunn could however fit in as the DH on the days that Victor Martinez catches, and could play LF on all other days, shifting the versatile Ryan Raburn to RF.  Adding another huge power threat like Dunn would give Detroit a 3-4-5 of Adam Dunn-Miguel Cabrera-Victor Martinez, arguably one of the best 3-player combos in any MLB lineup.  After receiving only a 2 year, $20 million deal in 2009 from Washington, Adam Dunn looks to capitalize and receiver a more lucrative and long-term contract.  However, he'll be more affordable than either Crawford or Werth, making him a slightly more realistic option. 

Projected Cost: 4 years, $60 million
Projected Team: Chicago White Sox
Projected Stats: .260/.380/.500, 40 HR, 100 RBI

If I had my personal choice, I would take Dunn of these 5, and there's a good chance that he's strongly considering Detroit right now.  However, I believe that in the end, Magglio Ordonez will be your starting Right Fielder in 2011.