The Indians through 48 games are ranked as following among all 30 MLB teams:
- Batting Average: .264 (3rd)
- Runs Scored: 233 (4th)
- HRs: 50 (T-7th)
- OPS: .757 (4th)
- Total Plate Appearances: 1755 (T-28th)
- Total Plate Appearances with Runners in Scoring Position: 453 (25th)
As a team, their BABIP is above average this year at .299, and their line drive percentage is at 17%, which is pretty middling. Still though, when looking at team stats, it's tough to truly analyze if their pace is able to be maintained, so we have to look at their main offensive contributors to truly see.
Travis Hafner, while currently on the disabled list, had been one of the Indians' top offensive contributors. He was hitting .345/.409/.549 with 5 HRs and 22 RBIs. He's also making contact with more pitches than ever in his career (80.2%). At first glance, the season is reminiscent of Pronk's heyday, but taking a closer look, his walk rate is at basically a career low and his BABIP is at an unsustainable .415. Pronk's season likely is a bit of a mirage, but he may have once again become a dependable run producer for the Indians offense, which they desperately needed. Hafner's best buddy on the DL, Grady Sizemore, looked great upon his return, but of course broke himself sliding into second base. That's par for the course with him and he won't be depended on largely for production. If Sizemore can play, he'll give the offense a major boost over his replacements (Austin Kearns/Travis Buck/Ezequiel Carrera), but it's always IF with him, and never likely.
The oddest thing about the Indians to me is that their two young offensive centerpieces of the futures are both struggling. Stud catcher, Carlos Santana, is having a very poor offensive season, hitting merely .203. Still though, Santana has found a way to help the offense, walking almost once every 5 at bats, showing that hitters still pitch around him and fear him. Santana's luck should turn around as evidenced by his extremely low line drive rate at 10.3%, less than half of last season's, and his .216 BABIP to go along with it (.277 last year). Almost 54% of his batted balls are grounders, which is submarining his batting average. This could be a side-effect of his knee still not being 100% after the surgery he had last year, but only time will tell. I would expect Santana's production to improve as the season goes on, and to be back to the level of his rookie season in 2012.
Additionally, Shin Soo-Choo is having a poor season for his standards at .244/.323/.381. His strikeout rate has risen back to pre-2010 levels this season, and he's walking a career-low 9.8% of the time. Choo is an exceptional hitter, posting a career .350 BABIP. For most MLB hitters, that's league average, but for Choo, it suggests that his production should trend upwards sooner rather than later. Additionally, his line drive, ground ball, and fly ball rates are all right in line with last year's, so his performance is curious. This season, Choo has been 1.8 runs below average when hitting fastballs, and one run below average against change ups. Conversely, last year he was 18 runs above average against fastballs and 10 runs above average against change ups. His plate discipline has suffered this year as well. He's swinging at less pitches than ever before and making far less contact than in prior years as well. However, as Fangraphs writer Michael Barr points out, Shin Soo-Choo's lack of production can be attributed in large part to his poor performance against left-handed pitching (.475 OPS). Over his career Choo has been a .708 OPS hitter against lefties, which is respectable and not troubling for a left-handed hitter like himself. Once his production against lefties returns, Choo's statistics will reflect the hitter he truly is.
Asdrubal Cabrera is having a breakout season currently, leading all shortstops in HRs, and posting a 1.001 OPS. The main proponent of his sudden success is that his power-stroke has soared. He's posting a ridiculous .232 ISO and .537 SLG. He's hitting more flyballs than ever before (37%), and that increase in flyballs along with a ridiculous HR/FB rate of 16.7% (One HR every 6 fly balls hit) has helped keep his breakout season going. This transformation is similar to Jose Bautista's in 2010. Bautista hit a career high amount of flyballs and his HR/FB rate increased markedly along with a decrease in K%. No, I'm not saying Cabrera is the next Bautista, but I am saying that similarly to Bautista, Asdrubal's plate approach has seemingly changed completely, and we should expect to see better power numbers from him.
According to cleveland.com, his plate approach was changed with the help of veteran Orlando Cabrera.
In the past, Cabrera has choked up on the bat and concentrated on putting the ball in play. In batting practice, however, he lets it rip. Newcomer Orlando Cabrera watched him in spring training and finally said something.
"Have you ever seen him take BP?" said Orlando Cabrera. "He hits the ball like a big guy. He's hitting homers to straight away center field. He's going oppo (driving the ball to the opposite field) whenever he wants. I say, "How can a guy like this hit three home runs a year?'"
So the veteran infielder suggested that Asdrubal might want to take that into the game."
Is his 1.001 OPS sustainable? Probably not. But I wouldn't be shocked to see Asdrubal become a consistent 20-25 HR threat, which is impressive from a middle infield spot, and especially considering that Asdrubal can steal 15 bases a year as well.
Matt Laporta is finally producing and meeting some of the massive hype he arrived with as Milwaukee's top prospect who was dealt in the C.C. Sabathia trade. Laporta was projected to be a consistent 40 HR hitter, and likely won't ever match that. He's likely another top prospect who'll fail to meet the insane level of hype he received in the minors, but he still appears to be a useful cog on a good team. Laporta's season thus far has produced a .263/.342/.466 slash line, which is very respectable, although not super impressive for a first baseman. He's walking about 10% of the time and striking out 21% of the time, both in line with his career averages thus far (although his career is only 690 ABs). He's hitting more flyballs than ever (53.8%), yet his HR/FB rate is only at 8.8%. He has however seen a major uptick in doubles hit, as he had only 15 all of last year (376 ABs), and already has 10 this year in 133 ABs. Laporta's current stats are definitely sustainable, and a bit reminiscent of Ryan Garko who consistently posted 20 HRs and 80-90 RBIs for the Indians. Again, he's definitely a useful offensive piece and won't hurt the Indians, but he isn't a gamechanger.
Michael Brantley is also having a solid season, hitting .289/.356/.410 at the top of the order, and setting the table for the Indians hot offense. His walk rate is finally starting to resemble his high BB% of his minors career, which has undoubtedly helped propel his much better performance at the plate. It simply may have been a matter of Brantley gaining experience at the MLB level. His 4 HRs are more than he had all of last year, and he has only 1 less double in 130 less at bats than 2010. The major turnaround in Brantley's game appears to be his patience and ability to hit the fastball. While a below-average fastball hitter in '09 and '10, Brantley has been nearly 3 runs above average against them in 2011. Brantley's seeing less first strikes than ever and is getting ahead of the count to start more at bats, which obviously will help his BA and OBP. His on-base skills combined with his blazing speed and solid fielding make him a solid asset, and quite possibly the Indians' leadoff man and centerfielder for years to come.
The offense does have its downsides, as Orlando Cabrera, Jack Hannahan, and the rest of the Indians have an OPS below .700, but overall, the Indians are one of the most balanced offenses in baseball this year and that doesn't look to change. Pronk's production will likely decline, as will Asdrubal Cabrera's a bit, but with two of their two best hitters in Carlos Santana and Shin-Soo Choo underachieving, the Indians' offense could still actually IMPROVE.
While this offense was much maligned pre-season, they look like they're here to stay. With prospects like Lonnie Chisenhall in the minors (who should be up sometime in June to replace Jack Hannahan), and more prospects filling out a solid farm system, the Indians may in fact be the top dog when all is said and done in 2011 in MLB, much less the AL Central.
The next post will take a look at the Indians' pitching so far and how their no-name group has put together such a solid season.
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