EMU Eagles Should Nest in Division I-AA

Eastern Michigan University (EMU) desperately wants to be recognized as a legitimate "Division I" school.  The prestige of offering Division-I football and basketball programs, along with the other 21 sports EMU offers is, in theory, enticing to prospective applicants.  What EMU has failed to realize, and refuses to admit, is that they are one of the most glaring examples of what is in reality a Division I-AA level program miscast and misplaced as a Division I sports program.   

That "theory" is a farce, and unfortunately has permeated the minds of university officials across the country. Institutions are losing millions on top of millions, just to offer that "prestigious" Division I football team.  Only 14 athletic departments out of 120 FBS (or Division-I) actually financially profitted in the 2009-2010 academic year according to a 2010 ESPN.com article.  On Tuesday, annarbor.com released a report putting numbers and facts behind what all EMU students, alumni, faculty and officials already knew; the athletic program is on life support.  A good portion of that life support comes from tuition and fees paid BY the very same students who don't attend the games.  Apparently, EMU's officials are perfectly fine with spending $15 million annually to keep their athletic program alive.

“I don’t think at the mid-major level, we should ever expect to be profitable,” said Stapleton, who despite his opposition to Ramsey’s firing, counts himself among supporters of a strong Division I-A athletic department. “That’s just not reality.”

While Stapleton is probably right, the nature of his statement suggests that they don't see ways to decrease direct institutional spending on the athletic department.  There definitely are While many departments end up losing money due to Title IX requirements that each university offer equal opportunities for male and female athletes, the ESPN.com article found that even when separating football programs from athletic departments, many football programs were operating at a deficit as well:

Sixty-eight FBS schools reported turning a profit on football, with a median value of $8.8 million. The 52 FBS schools that lost money on football reported median losses of $2.7 million.

The breakdown for basketball programs at those 120 schools was nearly identical, though the median values for profitable programs ($2.9 million) and money-losing ones ($873,000) were smaller.

Eastern Michigan consistently is one of the 52 FBS schools losing money on football.  Evidence A?  The fact that Eastern Michigan's attendance doesn't even meet NCAA regulations without help of their biggest sponsor:

"NCAA rules stipulate a school must average 15,000 fans per home football game to remain in Division I. Eastern Michigan, which averaged 6,401 fans per home game in 2010, uses $150,000 from a distribution contract with Pepsi to purchase tickets from itself at a rate of $3 apiece to remain NCAA compliant."

The tickets can be bought at a third of their price ($3), because EMU's highest ticket price is a mere $9.  Oh, and those attendance figures are including the students who get in free of charge as well.  For the 2009 season, EMU had the lowest attendance in Division-I, at a paltry 5,016 fans per game.  They brought in under $300,000 in ticket sales revenue, and for an athletic department that totaled expenses of over $24 million, that's unacceptable.  In 2010, thanks to Pepsi and other sponsors, they were able to surpass 15,000 "fans" per game: 

Three other sponsorship agreements on smaller scales account for more ticket sales, Malach said. Together, the agreements added 55,000 tickets sold to the 2010 totals, jumping Eastern’s average from 6,401 fans per game to 17,492 - compliant, by NCAA standards.

If EMU had averaged under 15,000 "fans" again, they would have lost D-I football status, and likely would have been demoted to the FCS (or Division I-AA) level.  After the purchase of the $3 tickets by Pepsi, EMU had increased their attendance figures enough to avoid trouble with the NCAA.  And because Pepsi had to buy so many of the tickets, ticket sales fell even further, to under $150,000.

To attempt to attract better players and improve the team's on-field play, EMU built a "practice bubble" that cost over $3 million as well, mostly funded by the university.  This practice bubble isn't going to do anything for the athletic program in all reality, as the facility houses the practices of a team that hasn't seen a bowl game appearance since 1987, the year of its only bowl win in its history.  The team is 2-22 over the past two years, and often attempts to make money by offering itself as a sacrificial lamb to teams like Ohio State and Michigan.  Those schools offer up to $1,000,000 for EMU to come play them, because both parties know the game will inevitably be a blowout in favor of the big-time school.  EMU often plays less home games than road games because they receive a payment for these games and their ticket sales are too low at home to justify playing a full schedule of home games.

The reality is that Eastern Michigan is an FCS football program disguised as a Division I football program, and needs to drop down to the FCS level for numerous reasons. 

1.) Decreased expenditures on the football program

All Division I schools can each have up to 85 full-ride scholarship players on its football team at any time.  In 2009-10, this student aid alone cost EMU $6,692,941 according to usatoday.com.  FCS schools are only allowed a maximum 63 football scholarships each.  Decreasing the number of football scholarships by 25% would save EMU probably about $400,000 to $500,000 (assuming a $20,000 - $25,000 per year scholarship).  Other sports may experience similar decreases in scholarships, but I won't attempt to estimate those numbers, there are simply too many sports.  Football going D I-AA is my focus, the other sports aren't nearly as crucial to change.  All other football costs would likely decrease as their are less mouths to feed, less people to get on buses/planes, etc. 

USA Today just released their 2010 figures detailing college subsidies to athletic programs.  The figures show how much of athletic departments' revenues at most universities are actually subsidies (subsidies include direct and indirect institutional financial support, student fees, and direct state support).  In fact, EMU's 84% figure and financial total of $22 million of subsidies paid to athletics are both the highest of any school with a D-I football team.    Only 16% of EMU's athletic revenues come from

Additionally, these Division I-AA teams can still play the part of sacrificial lamb and get paid millions to go lose to powerhouse teams like EMU did with OSU and Arkansas in recent years.  Additionally, attendance is already so low that it's highly doubtful they'd lose attendance.  Whoever goes to EMU apparently likes the product they're putting out there currently, so how could it hurt to watch a more competitive game? 

2) Division I schools who perform well do draw MORE students... but not better ones.

Many studies have been done to test the correlation between a team's success on the football field and number of applications received.    This theory started with the Hail Mary miracle touchdown that Boston College QB Doug Flutie threw against Miami in 1984.  In the two admissions processes following this miracle win, BC's applications received increased by a total of 30%, and this is often referred to as the ":Flutie Factor".  What likely didn't occur was an increase of over-qualified students applying to the school, which defeats part of the purpose.  Sure, schools would love to recognize extra revenue by accepting more students.  But a school like EMU simply can't handle as many students as universities like Michigan, Texas and Boston College can.  EMU is about a 20,000 student school, and they accept most applicants.  They even offer in-state tuition rates to Ohio applicants to try to attract more students and enough students.  EMU's basic requirements for admissions are a 2.0 GPA and 18 or higher ACT score.  I attended EMU for two years, and I'll still feel comfortable saying that EMU is a mediocre university or fallback school for those who can't get into better universities.  Very rarely is EMU a first choice destination for a good student.    Personally, I attended Eastern Michigan for two years to take core requirement classes, because they were cheaper.   Had their rates matched the price of U-M's, I would have attended U-M all four years without a doubt.

Schools do receive increased applicants in cases such as Boston College's.  But in order for that to happen, the football team also needs to experience actual success and major improvement on the field.  EMU hasn't shown an ability to do either yet, and there's absolutely no reason to think that the football program is going to find a sudden dearth of talent and hidden gems and surge to a MAC Championship.  If they had the success of say a Central Michigan during Dan LeFevour's time at QB, or a near undefeated season like Ball State did a few years back, I have no doubt they'd look better in the eyes of the public.  Given such an extreme level of improvement, I'd admit that Eastern Michigan could be in line to receive higher quality applicants. 

A study done by Chad McEvoy at The SMART Journal had findings along the same lines as previous studies, that success on the field led to increased applicants:

For the schools that had football teams whose conference winning percentage increased by .250 or greater realized a 6.1% gain in undergraduate applicants the following year.

Additionally, the study pointed out the obvious flaw in such a figure.  A school in EMU's situation isn't going to generate the same excitement that Michigan would if they increased from 7 wins last year to 10 this year:

All winning percentage increases and decreases are not necessarily the same. For example, a winning percentage increase of .250 is quite important for a football team going from seven victories and perhaps a bowl bid to ten victories and a chance to compete for a national championship, while the same winning percentage increase is not likely to make a dramatic difference for a team with zero wins one year and three wins the next.

Finally, the fact that EMU is in the Mid-American Conference further detracts from the likelihood that increased success would lead to increased applicants.  The MAC, Sun Belt, C-USA and the other non "Big-Six" conferences just don't receive the same type of football press that the Big Ten and Pac 12 do.  EMU increasing from 2 wins to 6 wins would be a non-story in the national media, and wouldn't even draw much more press locally.  On EMU campus, students would definitely notice, but again, they don't have to pay to attend games, and already attend the university.  Unless a team in the MAC has a year like Ball State did when they had a chance to be a BCS-buster, or has a star like Dan Lefevour, no team in the conference is going to get national press.  MAC teams only make national TV appearances on Tuesday and Wednesday nights on ESPN, and while they're very unpopular football nights, EMU could flaunt this as a reason not to leave the conference and go D I-AA... if they ever were on ESPN in those night games.  The usual suspects in such games are Central Michigan, Ohio, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Bowling Green... but never Eastern Michigan.  And it's probably for the best, because they're thrown around like rag dolls by the better teams that they face, and the more they appear on TV as a losing program, the worse they appear.  Until they improve (at the least a four year process) to the point of MAC contender, they won't get TV time and their very limited TV time will be in losses.

Because of all of the above reasons, it's hard to believe that even if EMU did improve, that the public would view them as a "better" university and that they'd attract better students.  If EMU was allowed to admit more students should they receive more applications, they'd receive more revenue surely.  But regardless if EMU has 20,000 or 40,000 students, their reputation as a university and athletic department aren't likely to improve.

3) There's more room for success in Division I-AA Football.

As rarely as EMU is a first choice for a good student, EMU rarely is the apple of a top prospect's eye.  In fact, in the past 5 years, Eastern has only gotten 3 commitments from players ranked even a 3-star prospect by Scout.com (Scout rarely actually ranks prospects lower than 3 stars).  That number is staggering, and completely proves that even 3-star prospects don't view Eastern Michigan as a football team with the ability to improve, and they shouldn't be expected to.  While EMU has struck gold by sending a couple players to the NFL recently in Jason Jones (DT, 2nd round) and T.J. Lang (OT, 4th round), they haven't experienced success on the field, even with what was thought to be a great defensive mind in Ron English coaching up the team. 

Bringing the caliber of players that EMU currently does to Division I-AA should place them on a more even playing field.  Additionally, EMU's recent improvements to their training facilities should net them better D I-AA level recruits than most schools.  EMU has the potential to at least be an above .500 program in the Football Championship Subdivision and could even make the occasional playoff appearance.  20 teams appear in the FCS Playoffs on a yearly basis and those games are all broadcast on television.  Additionally, teams can get home games in FCS Playoffs, so EMU has the potential to host a playoff game down the road. 

EMU hasn't made a bowl game since 1987 and is 9-39 over the past four years.  EMU's perception has more upward mobility at the FCS level where their upgraded facilities, recent NFL talent, and a big name coach could draw prospects from big-name FCS schools to Eastern Michigan and make them a perennial powerhouse should things go right.  In Division I, the best they can realistically hope for is an 8-4 season (far down the road) and a spot in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl. 

With more success, more fans will come to the stadium to watch a team.  Successful D I-AA programs like Villanova and Appalachian State outdraw EMU in attendance easily.  Appalachian State drew nearly 26,000 per game in 2010, and given that EMU's tickets are largely bought by sponsors (which many D I-AA teams don't have), the top 30 FCS teams outdrew EMU as well in attendance, going to show that success will draw fans.  EMU's attendance stands to rise if they move to the FCS level, as it's hard to believe they'd be less successful.  The draw of a prestigious coach, a former Division I-A program, and a better chance to win should all combine to help draw more fans and better players to the team.  


For the reasons above, Eastern Michigan has plenty of incentive to move down to Division I-AA in football.  They don't need to do it for every sport, and could explore offering more club sports in a move to cut athletic department costs as well.  But the first step to offering a more attractive football team and product on the field, is realizing their limits.

Who's The Best Pitcher in Baseball? Part 1: Reliability

Justin Verlander threw what I believe to be the best game of his career last night against the Indians (yes, more impressive than both no-hitters) in a complete game 2-hitter.  Verlander threw 117 pitches, striking out 12 and carrying a no-hitter into the 8th inning only to be broken up by a weak line drive into center field by SS Orlando Cabrera.  82 of his 117 pitches were strikes (70%!), and he constantly got ahead of the count on hitters.  He threw his curve in every count, whether as a finishing punch to seemingly every hitter, or to completely dumbfound and confuse hitters by opening an at-bat with the 78 MPH breaking ball.  Verlander finally, by his own admission, isn't just trying to throw past hitters and getting frustrated when they make contact, he's pitching strategically and with a level head.  With his newfound swagger and strategy, can JV truly claim to be one of the best pitchers in baseball yet?  I investigate this by trying to compose a top-5 list, based on numerous statistical measures.

There will be numerous parts of this series, the first being this post, exploring the reliability that each pitcher provides their respective team every fifth day, and how efficient they are while doing so.

Cleveland Indians Offense: For Real or Fraud?

The Indians currently sit in the pole position to finish with MLB's best record at 30-17.  Extrapolated out, the Indians are on pace to finish 101-61.  Even if the Indians finish the season 60-54, they'll finish with 90 wins.  The AL Central's leader was projected by most to finish fifth in the division behind the upstart Kansas City Royals whose prospects would propel them above the woeful Indians roster lacking talent.  So what are the keys to the Indians' emergence as a contender, and can they keep it up?

The Indians through 48 games are ranked as following among all 30 MLB teams:

• Batting Average: .264 (3rd)
• Runs Scored: 233 (4th)
• HRs: 50 (T-7th)
• OPS: .757 (4th)
• Total Plate Appearances: 1755 (T-28th)
• Total Plate Appearances with Runners in Scoring Position: 453 (25th)

...wait, what were those last couple numbers?  The Indians have managed to score the 4th most runs in baseball with the 2nd least total plate appearances, and the 6th least opportunities with runners in scoring position.  This is curious undoubtedly, and points to the Indians as a whole capitalizing on their minimal opportunities, which is held up by their sterling .317/.400/.464 slash line with runners in scoring position.  Their OPS bests the Orioles in second place by 16 points, and only the Orioles have a higher slugging percentage w/ RISP at .484.    To put their success in perspective, the MLB average w/ RISP is .248/.334/.377, a far cry from the Indians.

As a team, their BABIP is above average this year at .299, and their line drive percentage is at 17%, which is pretty middling.  Still though, when looking at team stats, it's tough to truly analyze if their pace is able to be maintained, so we have to look at their main offensive contributors to truly see.

Travis Hafner, while currently on the disabled list, had been one of the Indians' top offensive contributors.  He was hitting .345/.409/.549 with 5 HRs and 22 RBIs.  He's also making contact with more pitches than ever in his career (80.2%).  At first glance, the season is reminiscent of Pronk's heyday, but taking a closer look, his walk rate is at basically a career low and his BABIP is at an unsustainable .415.  Pronk's season likely is a bit of a mirage, but he may have once again become a dependable run producer for the Indians offense, which they desperately needed.  Hafner's best buddy on the DL, Grady Sizemore, looked great upon his return, but of course broke himself sliding into second base.  That's par for the course with him and he won't be depended on largely for production.  If Sizemore can play, he'll give the offense a major boost over his replacements (Austin Kearns/Travis Buck/Ezequiel Carrera), but it's always IF with him, and never likely.

The oddest thing about the Indians to me is that their two young offensive centerpieces of the futures are both struggling. Stud catcher, Carlos Santana, is having a very poor offensive season, hitting merely .203.  Still though, Santana has found a way to help the offense, walking almost once every 5 at bats, showing that hitters still pitch around him and fear him.  Santana's luck should turn around as evidenced by his extremely low line drive rate at 10.3%, less than half of last season's, and his .216 BABIP to go along with it (.277 last year).  Almost 54% of his batted balls are grounders, which is submarining his batting average.  This could be a side-effect of his knee still not being 100% after the surgery he had last year, but only time will tell.  I would expect Santana's production to improve as the season goes on, and to be back to the level of his rookie season in 2012.

Additionally, Shin Soo-Choo is having a poor season for his standards at  .244/.323/.381.  His strikeout rate has risen back to pre-2010 levels this season, and he's walking a career-low 9.8% of the time.  Choo is an exceptional hitter, posting a career .350 BABIP.  For most MLB hitters, that's league average, but for Choo, it suggests that his production should trend upwards sooner rather than later.  Additionally, his line drive, ground ball, and fly ball rates are all right in line with last year's, so his performance is curious.  This season, Choo has been 1.8 runs below average when hitting fastballs, and one run below average against change ups.  Conversely, last year he was 18 runs above average against fastballs and 10 runs above average against change ups.  His plate discipline has suffered this year as well.  He's swinging at less pitches than ever before and making far less contact than in prior years as well.  However, as Fangraphs writer Michael Barr points out, Shin Soo-Choo's lack of production can be attributed in large part to his poor performance against left-handed pitching (.475 OPS).  Over his career Choo has been a .708 OPS hitter against lefties, which is respectable and not troubling for a left-handed hitter like himself.  Once his production against lefties returns, Choo's statistics will reflect the hitter he truly is.

Asdrubal Cabrera is having a breakout season currently, leading all shortstops in HRs, and posting a 1.001 OPS.  The main proponent of his sudden success is that his power-stroke has soared.  He's posting a ridiculous .232 ISO and .537 SLG.  He's hitting more flyballs than ever before (37%),  and that increase in flyballs along with a ridiculous HR/FB rate of 16.7% (One HR every 6 fly balls hit) has helped keep his breakout season going.  This transformation is similar to Jose Bautista's in 2010.  Bautista hit a career high amount of flyballs and his HR/FB rate increased markedly along with a decrease in K%.  No, I'm not saying Cabrera is the next Bautista, but I am saying that similarly to Bautista, Asdrubal's plate approach has seemingly changed completely, and we should expect to see better power numbers from him. 

According to cleveland.com, his plate approach was changed with the help of veteran Orlando Cabrera.

In the past, Cabrera has choked up on the bat and concentrated on putting the ball in play. In batting practice, however, he lets it rip. Newcomer Orlando Cabrera watched him in spring training and finally said something.
"Have you ever seen him take BP?" said Orlando Cabrera. "He hits the ball like a big guy. He's hitting homers to straight away center field. He's going oppo (driving the ball to the opposite field) whenever he wants. I say, "How can a guy like this hit three home runs a year?'"
So the veteran infielder suggested that Asdrubal might want to take that into the game."

 Is his 1.001 OPS sustainable?  Probably not.  But I wouldn't be shocked to see Asdrubal become a consistent 20-25 HR threat, which is impressive from a middle infield spot, and especially considering that Asdrubal can steal 15 bases a year as well.

Matt Laporta is finally producing and meeting some of the massive hype he arrived with as Milwaukee's top prospect who was dealt in the C.C. Sabathia trade.  Laporta was projected to be a consistent 40 HR hitter, and likely won't ever match that.  He's likely another top prospect who'll fail to meet the insane level of hype he received in the minors, but he still appears to be a useful cog on a good team.  Laporta's season thus far has produced a .263/.342/.466 slash line, which is very respectable, although not super impressive for a first baseman.  He's walking about 10% of the time and striking out 21% of the time, both in line with his career averages thus far (although his career is only 690 ABs).  He's hitting more flyballs than ever (53.8%), yet his HR/FB rate is only at 8.8%.  He has however seen a major uptick in doubles hit, as he had only 15 all of last year (376 ABs), and already has 10 this year in 133 ABs.  Laporta's current stats are definitely sustainable, and a bit reminiscent of Ryan Garko who consistently posted 20 HRs and 80-90 RBIs for the Indians.  Again, he's definitely a useful offensive piece and won't hurt the Indians, but he isn't a gamechanger.

Michael Brantley is also having a solid season, hitting .289/.356/.410 at the top of the order, and setting the table for the Indians hot offense.  His walk rate is finally starting to resemble his high BB% of his minors career, which has undoubtedly helped propel his much better performance at the plate.  It simply may have been a matter of Brantley gaining experience at the MLB level.  His 4 HRs are more than he had all of last year, and he has only 1 less double in 130 less at bats than 2010.  The major turnaround in Brantley's game appears to be his patience and ability to hit the fastball.  While a below-average fastball hitter in '09 and '10, Brantley has been nearly 3 runs above average against them in 2011. Brantley's seeing less first strikes than ever and is getting ahead of the count to start more at bats, which obviously will help his BA and OBP.  His on-base skills combined with his blazing speed and solid fielding make him a solid asset, and quite possibly the Indians' leadoff man and centerfielder for years to come.

The offense does have its downsides, as Orlando Cabrera, Jack Hannahan, and the rest of the Indians have an OPS below .700, but overall, the Indians are one of the most balanced offenses in baseball this year and that doesn't look to change.  Pronk's production will likely decline, as will Asdrubal Cabrera's a bit, but with two of their two best hitters in Carlos Santana and Shin-Soo Choo underachieving, the Indians' offense could still actually IMPROVE.

While this offense was much maligned pre-season, they look like they're here to stay.  With prospects like Lonnie Chisenhall in the minors (who should be up sometime in June to replace Jack Hannahan), and more prospects filling out a solid farm system, the Indians may in fact be the  top dog when all is said and done in 2011 in MLB, much less the AL Central.

The next post will take a look at the Indians' pitching so far and how their no-name group has put together such a solid season.

2011 NFL Draft: Round One Analysis

After an elongated break due to finals, I'm back to writing, and the NFL Draft is the top story right now.  Last night, the first round was full of surprises per usual, and some teams prevailed as winners, some left us scratching our heads in confusion.  I'll give each pick a grade and some short analysis, and in addition speculate about what we could see in today's second and third rounds.

MLB 2011 Predictions: AL East

Today's Opening Day!  Everyone's ready for the season and publicizing their predictions, and I'm no different today.  I'll give a few storylines for each division to help explain what major stories to watch on each team this year.  Along with my predicted order of standings in each division and predicted playoff results, I'll also include MVP, Cy Young, ROY and Comeback Player of the Year candidates in each division.

First up the AL East after the jump:

Detroit Tigers 2011 Preview: Second Base

Entering 2011, no one knows who will open the season at 2nd base for the Detroit Tigers.  After letting Placido Polanco leave to Philadelphia in 2010, Detroit has no option that jumps out as reliable or above-average at the position.  This spring, an open competition is being held at the position, and the winner will likely dominate time at the position while also hitting 2nd in the lineup, which is one of the most important roles.  Could it be Carlos Guillen?  That requires that he be healthy which he may be to open the season.... for about 2 weeks.  What about Will Rhymes?  Sure, he played well last year, but can he be expected to hit .300 again and fill the #2 spot in the lineup similarly to how Polanco did?  Scott Sizemore entered 2010 as the starter, but while playing through an injury, suffered and was demoted to AAA.  Danny Worth was also one of the random players the Tigers picked out of the minors to fill the middle infield gap, and was a respectable replacement, but is he a feasible option for a full season? 

The obvious answer is that NONE of these options are "reliable", and ALL of them will see playing time at 2B and in Danny Worth's case, some time at SS.  But I'll handicap the competition at the position in this post to explain what we can reasonably expect each player to provide while on the field.

Possible Opening Day starter: Will Rhymes

Carlos Guillen has Leyland's support, but given that Carlos has yet to participate in a game, and there's no set timeline for his return, Will Rhymes based off his performance in limited time last year likely has the lead in the clubhouse at second base.  In 191 AB (214 PA) last year, Will posted a very respectable line at second:

.304/.350/.414(.764 OPS), 1 HR, 19 RBI, 30 R, 0 SB, 19 K

The combination of a .300 average and Rhymes' extrapolated total of about 60 strikeouts over a 600 AB season suggests that Rhymes is the best candidate to fill Polanco's old role at second base.  Both had little power at the plate, but perform well when asked to play small ball, for example, advancing a runner from 2nd to 3rd by hitting a ball to the right side of the infield. 

Rhymes' spray chart was remarkably balanced as we'll see below: 

Spray chart courtesy of mlb.com.  s = single, d = double h = home run

He hit 62 balls to the left side of the field (.411 BA), 60 balls up the middle (.283 BA) and 61 balls to the right side of the field (.305 BA), which suggests that he has enough bat control to hit the ball where the situation dictates that he should.  The left-hander is a slap-hitter that hits to all fields (hitting the best to the opposite field), but at the same point, Rhymes isn't going to hit many sacrifice flies or total many extra base hits, as only a couple of his hits at Comerica traveled more than 300 feet.  Power will never be Will Rhymes' game, but he can still be a very useful player should he perform similarly to last season.  I expect a slight regression from Rhymes this year, but not too much.  He should still showcase solid bat control in the 2 hole of the lineup and be a useful hitter in a Polanco-esque role. 

For the sake of comparison, Polanco hit .285/.331/.396, 10 HR, 72 RBI, 82 R, 7 SB, 46 K in his final season with Detroit (618 ABs).  We can expect similar triple slash numbers from Rhymes this year, but more strikeouts, and less power and run production.  To suggest he's the next Placido Polanco is ridiculous because Polanco offered a unique package of elite contact-hitting as well as decent ability to hit for power and solid fielding. 

One advantage he does hold is his speed on the basepaths.  While he only attempted 3 steals last season and was caught every time, he stole 20 or more bases in four of his five minor league seasons, and hopefully that speed on the basepaths translates to MLB this year.  In the field Rhymes obviously has more range than Carlos Guillen (who doesn't), but doesn't have elite range at the position, similarly to Polanco.

I expect Rhymes to get the most at bats of any option on this list over the course of the season, even if he doesn't open as the starter on Opening Day.  Scott Sizemore may end up the Opening Day starter, but if he struggles again, Rhymes will be thrust into the every day second base spot.

Projection given that Rhymes is main starter: 400 ABs, .285/.340/.380, 3 HR, 33 RBI, 65 R, 13 SB    

Leyland's favorite option: Carlos Guillen

As Tigers fans know, Jim Leyland plays favorites quite a bit, whether they're as awful with the bat as Adam Everett or Neifi Perez, or as awful in the field as Carlos Guillen.  Guillen's range has deteriorated exponentially over the past few seasons as injuries continue to derail his career.  He no longer has the range to play shortstop so he's been moved all over the field, from the outfield to first base to his current position of second base.  Next to Jhonny Peralta unfortunately, Carlos Guillen would help form the worst fielding 2B-SS combo in MLB, which as you would expect is going to be harmful to the Tigers who already have a poor outfield defense (aside from Austin Jackson).  The infield also has a slow and overweight first baseman that can't cover a ton of ground (although he's an above-average fielding first baseman regardless), and an aging Brandon Inge who still possesses great instincts at third but simply doesn't have the range he used to as his knee problems worsen.  Guillen isn't going to remedy the poor defense, but that's obviously not why he's getting play at second base.

While more second basemen are starting to hit for power than ever, Guillen's bat at the position is still useful should he remain healthy.  While Guillen won't be returning to his heyday from '04-'07 when we could reasonably expect 20 HRs and 90-100 RBI on a yearly basis along with an .800+ OPS, he still has 15 HR power and still possesses decent run-producing potential as well as the ability to drive the ball to all fields.  Last year Guillen hit .273/.327/.419, which means he got on base less than Rhymes, but also drove more runs in.  Carlos will likely hit 2nd if he starts at 2B, but his bat simply isn't as useful there as it would be hitting 6th or 7th.  Guillen's ability to switch-hit can prove useful later in games, but as a right-handed hitter over the past couple seasons, his hitting has fallen off sharply, leading to a .234 average while hitting against lefty pitchers last season, which means, that his bat is only useful as a lefty, which Rhymes also is.  Again, the main difference is the power advantage that Guillen has over Rhymes, but is the power hitting really more useful than Rhymes' advantages in contact hitting, fielding, and speed on the basepaths?  Given the Tigers' lineup and its spread out power hitting (Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Ryan Raburn, Brandon Inge, and Alex Avila can all be expected to hit 15+ HRs over a full season of work), Guillen's power hitting (which is markedly less impressive than in years past) simply isn't as advantageous for the 2011 version of the Detroit Tigers. 

In the end will this matter?  Probably not, because as explained earlier, Leyland sticks with his favorite players through and through.   In all honesty, Carlos Guillen profiles as a completely average 2B with the loss of power and lack of fielding range, but he has the trust of Jim Leyland as he's been here since Leyland's first year with the team.  Additionally, Carlos Guillen's $13 million contract for this season makes it tough to justify not playing him on a regular basis.  The Tigers did release Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis last year even though they were owed a combined $23 million, so it's not unprecedented should Guillen be released mid-season, but given that Carlos is still a fairly useful hitter, he'll be on the team this year.  He will be gone though after this season as the Tigers will likely commit to Will Rhymes or Scott Sizemore at the position.  Guillen likely will get 200-250 ABs at 2B as he has the past couple years, but will fail to remain healthy, as is his trademark.


Projection given Guillen is starter for 400 ABs: .280/.350/.410, 12 HR, 50 RBI, 70 R, 75 K

Scott Sizemore:

Scott Sizemore has the most potential of any 2nd baseman in the Tigers' system, but he also struggled greatly last year in adjusting to major league hitting.  Sizemore offers the best talent package of any middle infielder the Tigers have at any level, with the ability to hit for above-average power, draw walks, hit for contact, and be a dependable fielder at second base.  While he possesses the potential, will it translate to MLB?

Sizemore's on-base percentage was consistently around .370 and .380 in the minor leagues, which is quite impressive for a young hitter, and very useful at the top of a lineup.  In AAA, Scott posted an average over .300, an OBP of .378 and a SLG of .472 over the course of two seasons.  His walk rate decreased upon his promotion to AAA, but was still very respectable, drawing walks in about 9% of plate appearances (this translates to about 55-60 walks per 600 ABs.)  While he maintained that walk rate in MLB, his strikeout rate increased sharply to 28% of his at-bats.  22% of his batted balls were line drives, which is a great number, but his groundball and flyball rates were both nearly identical (37.9 and 39.8%).  Additionally, 17% of his fly balls were infield fly balls.  Over a full season, that 17% would definitely have decreased but the fact is, a good amount of Sizemore's batted balls never left the infield.

Last year, Sizemore also suffered with making contact.  On pitches outside the zone, Sizemore made contact with only 60.7% (66.5% MLB Avg.), and made contact with 85.6% of pitches he swung at in the strike zone (88.1% MLB Avg.)  When it comes down to it, Sizemore should improve these rates over time as he gains experience, but he's a patient hitter that takes a lot of pitches and will never swing more than an average MLB hitter.  That's not necessarily a negative as he walks more than the average MLB hitter as well.  As long as Sizemore can increase his average to .260 or .270 and have an OBP hovering above or around .350, he'll be a very useful part of the bottom of the Tigers lineup.  

I expect Sizemore to start the season at second base, but to quickly relinquish the job to Carlos Guillen once he's healthy.

Projection assuming 400 ABs: .250/.330/.400, 9 HR, 45 RBI, 60 R, 10 SB

Other options:

Other options at the position will include utility infielders like Danny Worth and Don Kelly.  Both will likely see some MLB time this season at the positions, probably mostly as defensive replacements.  As far as minor league players are concerned, two names to watch are Corey Jones and Brandon Douglas, the 13th and 15th best prospects respectively in the Detroit Tigers minor leagues according to the Detroit News' annual report.  Douglas is 25 and should see time in AAA this season which he earned after a solid season last year, and Corey Jones should move up to AA ball this season in Erie at age 23.  The Tigers have a bunch of mediocrity at the position, but in the end, they'll work it out and hopefully can manage the position well.  Personally, I'd want Will Rhymes starting if I were Jim Leyland, but I have a feeling Rhymes is going to be the man left out of the situation behind Sizemore and Guillen.

2011 NCAA Tournament Picks

Time for what's probably the greatest 4-day span in sports, the NCAA tournament.  This year looks to have a lot of parity, and there are probably 12-14 teams that could win it in the end.  Regardless, I'm going to put my picks here to come back and embarrass me later.

East Region:

(1) Ohio St. over (16) University Texas - San Antonio:  It's a 1/16 game, move along.
(9) Villanova over (8) George Mason - I'm going to put faith in Jay Wright to right the ship here, even if just for one game.  Whoever wins this is getting slammed in the next round, but this should be a highly entertaining game with great guard play.
(5) West Virginia over (12) Clemson - The Tuesday night play-in game against UAB may sway a lot of people to pick Clemson today, don't let it.  Clemson has experience at failing in big games for more than a decade and doesn't have even ONE win against a top-50 RPI team this season.  It will be a close game as both teams play stifling defense, but I'm going to trust Bob Huggins here and the experienced group at West Virginia.
(4) Kentucky over (13) Princeton - This is going to get ugly.
(6) Xavier over (11) Marquette - Xavier is playing in Cleveland, so they'll have PLENTY of support.  Marquette has good guard play, but so does Xavier with Tu Holloway who should be the best scorer on the floor.  It will likely come down to the interior, which always seems to be Marquette's weakness.  Kenny Frease and David McLean give Xavier a huge advantage down low that will be the undoing of Marquette.
(3) Syracuse over (14) Indiana St. - Gonna be a laugher.
(7) Washington over (10) Georgia - This game could be fun.  Athletes all over the court, and lots of offense to go with it.  Isiah Thomas is a stud at pointguard, and seemingly the whole team can shoot 3's which will spread the floor.  Georgia has a dynamic guard in Travis Leslie who can jump out of the building, and Trey Thompkins in the post who could dominate down there.  I think Matthew Bryan-Amaning will perform admirably on the interior against Thompkins and will help Washington pull off the win.
(2) North Carolina over (15) Long Island - Another laugher, move along folks.

(1) Ohio St. over (9) Villanova - Should be easy for the Bucks here.
(4) Kentucky over (5) West Virginia - This game gives me pause, as this is the team that was the undoing of Kentucky last year.  Kentucky just outclasses WVU this year though, while Kentucky lost more talent to the NBA last year, they also still have way more than WVU and Calipari's teams all play good defense which should help negate WVU's advantage there.
(6) Xavier over (3) Syracuse - Upset Alert!  Playing in Cleveland again, big advantage for Xavier here.  Syracuse is a tough team, but Kenny Frease should play well, even against Rick Jackson, and Tu Holloway is the best guard on the floor.  This is a dangerous pick, as Xavier doesn't shoot the 3 well.  However, they do get to the free throw line and convert efficiently, so they can pull this off.
(7) Washington over (2) UNC - Bigger upset alert!  Washington doesn't have the advantage here, playing in Charlotte, but they do have better guard play.  My hunch is that they force Marshall into a high amount of turnovers, and Justin Holiday can play admirable defense against Harrison Barnes.  The post game could present problems for Washington as Zeller and Henson are strong down low, but I'm going to roll with the more senior team here in Washington.  I can definitely see this game blowing up in my face, UNC is crazy talented, but March is crazy, and this is going to be one of the more surprising Sweet 16 runs this year in my opinion.

(1) Ohio St. over (4) Kentucky - Kentucky folds on the big stage and Josh Harrelson can't find a way to stop Jared Sullinger.  If they double team Sullinger, Diebler and William Buford will go nuts from the 3-point line.  Ohio State really presents a diverse offensive group that is tough for anyone to match up with.
(7) Washington over (6) Xavier - Isiah Thomas continues to lift his team up, and leads them to a magical Elite Eight run, continuing momentum from the Pac-10 tournament.  Can they beat Ohio State though?

(1) Ohio St. over (7) Washington - Nope.  They can't.  Ohio State's too much for Washington here and ends the magical run of this band of Huskies.

West Region:

(1) Duke over  (16) Hampton - 30+ point victory
(8) Michigan over (9) Tennessee - Michigan's getting no credit for their end-season run, and they'll take offense to it, showing up here with an improved Tim Hardaway Jr. and one of the top pointguards in the nation who'll put his name on the map.  Tennessee outsizes Michigan, but I'm gonna go with a hunch here and count on the Wolverines to show up big for one more game.
(5) Arizona over (12) Memphis - This isn't your regular Memphis, they're not going to make noise in this tournament, in a couple years though look out, as four of their five starters this season are freshmen.  Look for Derrick Williams to blow up in this game.
(4) Texas over (13) Oakland - Oakland got screwed as the best 13 seed playing the best 4 seed.  Oakland could beat a team like Wisconsin or an overseeded four, but not Texas.  Texas was the best defensive team in the country over the second half of the season, and should outclass Oakland here, who plays about as much defense as the Golden State Warriors.
(11) Missouri over (6) Cincinnati - Upset here, I don't like Cincinnati that much this year, and while Missouri doesn't still play their "40 Minutes of Hell" press, they play fantastic defense and Marcus Denmon should play well in this game and lead Mizzou to an upset. 
(3) Connecticut over (14) Bucknell - Not buying an upset here.
(7) Temple over (10) Penn State - This should be a great defensive matchup, and the first team to 60 probably wins.  Unfortunately for Penn State, they probably won't even score 50.  Temple's better on offense and more versatile on offense, they get the nod, especially if Scootie Randall plays.
(2) San Diego St. over (15) Northern Colorado - Big win here for the Aztecs.

(1) Duke over (8) Michigan - Michigan against Duke IN Charlotte?  Michigan will play better than expected.. and still lose by more than 10.
(4) Texas over (5) Arizona - Texas has the talent to neutralize Derrick Williams, and more offensive power than Arizona.  This could be a good game though.
(3) Connecticut over (11) Missouri - Kemba lights it up and breaks through the Missouri defense to get his 25-30 points.  Missouri definitely has a legitimate shot to win this game with great defense, but UConn is on a roll, I'm sticking with the Huskies.
(2) San Diego St. over (7) Temple - If Scootie Randall is healthy, Temple has a strong chance of winning this game and pulling the upset, but it's unsure, and San Diego St. has a better point guard and a better front line.  They win here and knock out the Owls.

(1) Duke over (4) Texas - If Texas comes to play here, they could definitely take down Duke.  Both are great offensive and defensive teams, and this is going to be a phenomenal game, a must-watch if it takes place.  If Texas pulls the upset here, they could go on and win it all, because it'll mean the good Texas showed up to play.
(2) San Diego St. over (3) Connecticut - While Kemba is easily the best player on the court, San Diego St. has a better all around lineup, and should dominate the interior, making it tough for Kemba to get his.

(1) Duke over San Diego St. - Duke's too good, San Diego State can't keep up and Duke wins fairly easily, returning to a Final Four and continuing to torment Steve Fisher.

Southwest Region:

(1) Kansas over (16) Boston U. - 1/16 game, etc.
(8) UNLV over (9) Illinois - Illinois continues to disappoint, backing their way into a 9 seed, and failing to assert themselves on the interior where they have an advantage, and end a failure of a season.
(12) Richmond over (5) Vanderbilt - Both teams can shoot, and Richmond made it to the Sweet 16 last season.  Conversely, Vanderbilt has been upset twice in the last three years, and it very well could happen again here.  Richmond is the low seed to watch for a Sweet 16 run this year as they're very experienced.
(4) Louisville over (13) Morehead St. - This is a sneaky upset game as Morehead St. has a decided advantage on the glass with the all-time leader in NCAA history in rebounding, Kenneth Faried.  Louisville's balanced though and should be okay here, even if Faried gets his.
(6) Georgetown over (11) VCU - Again, the play-in game is going to make people switch to VCU as they looked good against USC yesterday.  Chris Wright is playing in this game, and will bring the steadying presence back to Georgetown's lineup.  Georgetown wins here and looks like the team they were early in the season.
(3) Purdue over (14) St. Peter's - Who?  Purdue, big.
(10) Florida St. over (7) Texas A&M - A matchup of defensive stalwarts with little offense likely to show up.  I'm gonna take Florida State here, I'm counting on Chris Singleton to come back and play well against Khris Middleton.
(2) Notre Dame over (15) Akron - Akron barely made the tournament, they were 6th in the MAC, Notre Dame by 20+.

(1) Kansas over (8) UNLV - Yeah, this is gonna be ugly.
(12) Richmond over (4) Louisville - The slipper fits and the Spiders return to the Sweet 16!  Louisville and Richmond both don't rebound very well, but Richmond is a bigger team, and can spread the floor more than Louisville can.  Pitino did a great job with little talent, but Louisville can't hide their deficiencies anymore.
(6) Georgetown over (3) Purdue - Purdue just doesn't look right.  Their last two games were horrific and they struggled scoring, Jajuan Johnson will get his, but will E'Twaun Moore be able to keep up with the prolific trio of the Hoyas' guards  I'm going to say no, and that Chris Wright leads Georgetown to a surprising sweet 16 appearance.
(2) Notre Dame over (10) Florida State - Notre Dame doesn't play great defense, but they can score with the best of them.  Florida State can't score.  Give the edge to the Irish here, led by Ben Hansbrough.

(1) Kansas  over (12) Richmond - Richmond is outclassed here, Kansas' easy road continues as Richmond can't match their talent.
(2) Notre Dame over (6) Georgetown - Georgetown is finally outdone, and Notre Dame shows up in a big way with an impressive win over the streaking Hoyas.

(1) Kansas over (2) Notre Dame - Notre Dame has the length to frustrate Kansas here, with 4 6'8" starters, but they don't have the defensive ability to shut down the Morris twins.  This should be a good game, and Notre Dame CAN win this if they get hot from beyond the arc and Ben Hansbrough dominates Kansas' less talented guards.

Southeast Region:

(1) Pittsburgh over (16) UNC - Asheville - Not even close.
(9) Old Dominion over (8) Butler - This game is interesting as it pits Butler's guards against Old Dominion's dominant interior.  My hunch is that Matt Howard of Butler gets in foul trouble (as he's prone to do), and Old Dominion dominates the boards, winning over last season's national championship runner up.
(5) Kansas St. over (12) Utah St. - Kansas State is peaking at the perfect time, and they're set up in the worst region of the tournament, which allows them the potential to make a Final Four run and justify the hype they received pre-season.  Utah State can definitely watch this game, and it's probably the scariest pick of my entire bracket.  This will be a close game, keep your eye on it.
(13) Belmont over (4) Wisconsin - Wisconsin is not easy on the eyes, but they never are.  They play a slow, methodical game, but it works under Bo Ryan.  Last year Wofford almost finished off a major upset, I expect Belmont to one-up Wofford by winning over the overrated Wisconsin team.
(11) Gonzaga over (6) St. John's - The Zags led by Mark Few get a big upset here.  St John's has had a great season behind Steve Lavin's great coaching and a lot of senior leadership, but they have a lack of NCAA tournament experience (read: none), and NO size whatsoever to stop Robert Sacre and Elias Harris on the inside.  Gonzaga's big men get them the win.
(3) BYU over (14) Wofford - Wofford isn't beating BYU, Jimmer should go for 30+ per usual.
(7) UCLA over (10) Michigan St. - I cannot reasonably pick MSU after the pathetic excuse of a season they've had.  UCLA has the versatility to pull this off, but it's going to be close regardless of who wins, and probably low scoring, as both teams struggle overall on offense.
(2) Florida over (15) UCSB - If Florida were a 3 or 4 seed, more people would be picking them to do serious damage in the tournament.  Because they're overseeded, too many have them getting knocked out early.

(9) Old Dominion over (1) Pitt - The first #1 seed goes down as Old Dominion wins the rebounding battle against Pittsburgh.  Old Dominion can't shoot threes, well, neither can Pitt really.  This is going to be a rough and tough game, and I'm going to pick the upset as I never trust Pitt at tourney time.
(5) Kansas St.  over (13) Belmont - Belmont isn't beating Kansas St. as they're far too athletic.  Wisconsin is unathletic enough for Belmont to keep up with and pull out a win, but Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly should dominate in this game.
(3) BYU over (11) Gonzaga - I'm tempted to pick Gonzaga here as they have a decided advantage on the interior, but BYU has the biggest advantage with Jimmer against Gonzaga's mediocre, young guards.  BYU rides Jimmer to the Sweet 16.
(2) Florida over (7) UCLA - UCLA doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Florida, an underappreciated Florida team wins handily here.

(5) Kansas St. over (9) Old Dominion - Old Dominion meets their maker as Kansas St. actually has a strong outside game and shoots the Monarchs out of the building.
(2) Florida over (3) BYU - BYU's run ends, as Florida's talented post players on the inside dominate BYU's lack of interior presence and Kenny Boynton plays great defense on Jimmer.

(5) Kansas St. over (2) Florida - Kansas State fulfills their pre-season promise and makes the Final Four.  Jacob Pullen has a transcendent performance and Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels play up to their potential on the interior, leading the Wildcats to the Final Four.

FINAL FOUR:

(1) Ohio State over (1) Duke - Duke has a great team, but this game isn't going to come down to depth, it's going to come down to the team with the most balance, and that's Ohio State.  Ohio State shoots better from three-point land, and has a better post game with Jared Sullinger, as well as a top 10 offense and defense.  The Buckeyes make it back to the Championship for the first time since 2007.
 (1) Kansas over (5) Kansas State - An in-state, in-conference rivalry in the Final Four?  Fantastic storyline here.  Unfortunately for the Wildcats, Kansas made it this far, they aren't faltering now.  The Morris twins are going to dominate the game, and Kansas' team shoots from 3 better overall than KSU.

CHAMPIONSHIP:

(1) Kansas over (1) Ohio State - Kansas has what looks to be the most balanced team, and probably the only team that can really effectively stop Sullinger, play great perimeter defense, and score on the elite Buckeyes defense.  Kansas is experienced and upset after the Northern Iowa loss last year and is on a mission this year to redeem themselves.  The Jayhawks win a championship and Marcus Morris is named the MOP of the Southwest Region and Final Four.

This post will probably make me look silly in retrospect, but whose picks won't do the same?  Enjoy March Madness this year everyone, even if your picks don't work out as expected.

Detroit Tigers 2011 Preview: First Base

Baseball is back!  I'll be previewing the outlook on the Detroit Tigers position by position to lead up to Opening Day, at the major league level and even the future prospects at the position.  Up for discussion today is the first base position.  It was thought that Cabrera's recent turmoil revolving around the DUI incident and the potential underlying problems with alcohol would have thrown the first base position into complete uncertainty for Opening Day, but Cabrera is already back playing every game in Spring Training.  It remains to be seen if the media scrutiny will affect him, but I personally believe he'll perform as his same dominant self.  After the jump, we'll touch on Miguel Cabrera, as well as potential fill-ins at the position for the 8-10 games he may not play at the position.

Albert Pujols: Can St. Louis Afford to Sign Him?

As everyone knows, the negotiating deadline for Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals has passed, resulting in nothing but media hype and a likely panicked front office.  The Cardinals reportedly offered Albert Pujols in between $19 and 21 million dollars a year, which quite frankly is an insulting amount for the best player in baseball, and the best of our generation.  Pujols leads all active MLB players in AVG, OBP, SLG, and obviously OPS as a result.  To let the most productive hitter in baseball leave St. Louis would be devastating to the organization.  However, the Cardinals' organization's best choice, as blasphemous as it sounds, may very well be to let Albert Pujols leave in free agency. 

The overwhelming reason he's got to go for St. Louis to remain a financially functional team is that Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols would take up more than 40% of the Cardinals' spending cap.  Matt Holliday's $17 million per year contract stretching through 2016 seemed like a good idea at the time, when everyone was ignoring that Pujols would become a free agent the next year.

Let's take a look at the Cardinals' payroll and their future obligations:

Blue = Option that will likely be accepted, Red = Option likely to be turned down

The Cardinals' payroll this year after minor league call-ups and other factors will likely end up around $110,000,000 which is honestly probably more than they wanted to spend this year. As we can see in 2011, the Cardinals have seven players hitting free agency, but only four are important decisions: Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Ryan Franklin and Chris Carpenter. Berkman likely won't return which clears up $8 million, and Ryan Franklin will likely pursue a closer job elsewhere and more money, freeing up another $3.5 million.

However, given the FA losses, the Cardinals only have 16 players that will be signed for 2012, 17 if they pick up Chris Carpenter's option which would increase payroll to $70,000,000.  Now let's look at their payroll after adding in a backloaded Albert Pujols contract for about 10 years and $250 million starting in 2012:

Adding in a backloaded contract may enable the Cardinals to actually keep Pujols, or if they defer payments of his contract to future years, but let's also remember, this scenario requires Pujols leaving about $50 million on the table.  However, when we look at even 2012, their financial situation becomes concerning.  The Cardinals' payroll last year was their highest ever.. at $94,220,500 according to Cot's Contracts, so they're already overstretching their limits this year.  In one of the smaller markets in MLB, the Cardinals only have so much of a fanbase to draw from.  They do have one of the more loyal fanbases in the league, but even still have a tough time managing to generate enough revenue to have a $100 million payroll. 

In 2012, the first year of Pujols' deal, the rammifications of their decision to sign him would already become very apparent.  Chris Carpenter, runner-up in the 2009 NL Cy Young and workhorse of the Cardinals' rotation, has a $15 million club option that the Cardinals must decide on.  While he'll be 37, he's still a very productive pitcher, and likely will command a similar salary in the free agent market.  Jaime Garcia and Colby Rasmus will also demand large raises in arbitration, and the $75,000,000 total payroll in the second excel chart's total salary is, again, without Chris Carpenter's $15,000,000 option.  So they would have about $25,000,000 left over that year to sign 9 players for their team, which could be done.  Considering that they'd be losing an ace in Carpenter however, it's unlikely the players they'd sign would be enough to keep them at the same level of contention. 

Well, couldn't they just depend on their minor league system?  If they do, they'll fall out of contention for a couple years at least, and likely more, as most of their prospects aren't expected to pan out until late 2012/2013 at the earliest.  They do have an ace-in-training, prospect SP Shelby Miller, in the minors currently, who they may expect to take Carpenter's place and will likely lead to Carpenter's departure. The depth beyond that is very questionable however.  Also, depending on a minor league system is extremely dangerous, especially when the Cardinals' is considered mediocre.  Overall, more prospects flame out or only fulfill a portion of their potential than develop into stars.  Unless the Cardinals hit the lottery again like they did with Pujols, they'll be in trouble.

In 2013, the Cardinals would drop Kyle Lohse's contract, and Jake Westbrook's option will likely be declined, which would give them $25 million more to spread around.  Even still, they'd be left with about $47 million to sign 14 players that year, an even more difficult task and would have to replace three starting pitchers, and that's BEFORE Colby Rasmus and their other young guns get sizeable raises in arbitration.  They also would have to be cognizant of the fact that Colby Rasmus, Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, Jaime Garcia, and Adam Wainwright would all be closing in on free agent status and will command big contracts to stay on board.  The Cardinals couldn't realistically afford to keep them all, and would likely have to let Motte, McClellan, and one of the 3 stars in that list (probably Adam Wainwright) leave, which would hinder the team greatly, This is also not to mention that Albert would command salaries of $27-30 million towards the end of this hypothetical contract, so their financial mobility would only continue to decrease through the years. 

The 10 year, $200 million contract that most are estimating the Cardinals offered Pujols is realistically about the best they can offer, and may even still be too high for an organization that maxes payroll out right around $100 million.  The team can't sign a new TV contract until about 2017, so they can't count on more revenue through that route either. 

The NL Central isn't 5 pushovers and the Cardinals anymore either as it was in some years.  The Brewers made a huge splash this offseason, acquiring two aces in Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, and have a young team with staying power based around a dominant top 3 pitchers (the above two and Yovani Gallardo) and solid offensive contributors like Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee, and Corey Hart. The Reds also look to have staying power, with a very young and still improving rotation, and Joey Votto (2010 NL MVP), Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Yonder Alonso to carry their offense in the future.

The Cardinals weren't proactive at all in extending Pujols, and probably could have avoided this situation if they offered him an even longer extension in say 2007 or 2008, but they either didn't look ahead or counted on Pujols taking a team-friendly deal, both of which are quite foolish of them.

In the end, the $17 million of flexibility that was taken away when they signed Matt Holliday is what will likely lead to Pujols' departure.  Paying 2 players almost $40 million annually is feasible for the Yankees/Cubs/Red Sox/etc., but not for a smaller market like St. Louis.  The Cardinals under this scenario would lose several marquee players within a few seasons, which is likely too much to replace cheaply and remain at a similar competitive level.  Regardless, I do think the Cardinals will eventually give into Pujols and re-sign him to a contract similar to my projection, even though keeping Pujols may limit their financial flexibility to the point that they are never true World Series contenders.

Detroit Tigers 2011 Preview: Catcher

Pitchers and catchers reported yesterday, meaning baseball is almost back!  The season is approaching quickly and the Tigers look to have a set roster now.  I'll analyze the Tigers and how well off they are at each position over the next couple weeks.

The first edition of this series will focus on the Detroit Tigers' catchers, Victor Martinez and Alex Avila, as well as looking ahead to the future for the Tigers at the position.